Q1 GDP may come lower at 7.6% vs 9.3%: CNBC-TV18 poll

India's gross domestic product for the April-June quarter is expected to come in at 7.6% as against 9.3% in the same quarter a year ago, a CNBC-TV18 poll indicates.

While this appears to be the widespread expectation, the range too remains quite narrow. The lowest number was 7.4% and the highest was 7.8%. So everybody is pretty certain about the approximate extent of GDP growth.

CNBC-TV18's Latha Venkatesh reports that expectations are that agriculture will do much better. This April-June is the harvest of the previous year. And, since the Reserve Bank was good this time people are expecting 4-5% against 2.4% year ago.

Manufacturing will be the disappointment; last time because it was coming of a previous low base, manufacturing was nearly 10%. This year, because of the high base and some element of slowdown that has happened, the industry will perhaps come in at about 6.8%. The services sector is usually steady between 8.5-9% and that is how it is expected to come.

If the GDP number comes anywhere around this range of 7.4-7.8% it is unlikely the market will expect anything different from the RBI. It currently expects that the bank will go ahead with a rate hike on September 16. If it is way below that 7.6% mark then maybe hope will be rekindled that the RBI will be worried about growth.

The other number that the market will look out for will be savings rate and investment rate. Last year same quarter investments fell very sharply, the growth on that front was about 0.4%. So that number will also be closely watched and people will try to divine the RBI action from there.