Buy Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company; target of Rs 90 : ICICI Securities

ICICI Securities's research report on Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company

The impact of GST rate cuts on margins driven by the unavailability of input tax credit has been a key concern for investors. Towards that end, Niva Bupa clarified to have passed on the impact to distributors, while volume growth has accelerated (more than 50% new business growth and 100bps renewal rate increase in retail segment during Oct’25). Although this is positive on both counts (volume and margin) and warrants an earnings upgrade, we remain conservative considering the ensuing distributor negotiations and build in higher volume, but at a higher COR. Separately, Niva Bupa has been able to deliver standout growth in health insurance premiums (~40% CAGR between FY20–25 and 23% in H1FY26 on a comparable basis (without 1/n)).

Outlook

Maintain BUY with a revised TP of INR 90 (earlier INR 92)