Bullish on India | How India can qualify for the 2046 FIFA World Cup

1)  Our primary sport is cricket, not football, unlike the nations that are good at football. Japan is consistently one of the top footballing nations in Asia and never fails to qualify for the World Cup. Their No.1 sport is baseball. The US regularly qualifies for the World Cup and football is perhaps their fifth or sixth sport of choice. Yes, it really helps if football is your first sport, but it’s not essential.

2)  We need a lot more resources to be a world-class footballing nation. Senegal, one of the strongest footballing nations in the world, is also nearly a failed state when it comes to economy. Their GDP is less than half of India’s, their unemployment rate is more than five times ours. Brazil’s footballers almost always come from the countries favelas, or slums, picking up the game with makeshift balls in narrow alleys.

3)  Indians are not genetically suited to the game, unlike the Brazilians. This is the most ridiculous argument of the lot because genes have nothing to do with a team sport like football. This is plainly visible in the vibrant, all-races and all-peoples nature of the World Cup.

What then ails Indian football? Two critical things: the lack of structure, and the usual cultural propensities that keep India back in most sports—egotistic people who do not want to learn from the world and mostly want to protect their own interests over the interest of the game, running the sport at every level, from the grassroots to the top. About the second thing, there is little to be said. So here are the things that need to be done structurally to get India to the 2046 World Cup.

1.  Don’t invent the wheel

If there is one sport in the world with thoroughly researched and thoroughly proven models of development that transforms nations—irrespective of their size, economy, genetics, population, league status, geographic location—from footballing nobodies to globally competitive entities, it’s football. This is great news. There is no need to be original geniuses. There is only the need to study the existing models, and with whatever small tweaks necessary to adapt them to Indian conditions, formulate a 20-year-vision and begin its implementation. The best models are European, of course, and even traditional footballing powerhouses like France have had to swallow a bitter pill, upend their own outdated systems, and overhaul from the ground up to find their feet again on the pitch. But perhaps the finest models to look at are Belgium and Portugal. Two small nations with relatively modest footballing budgets who revolutionized their player development system in the past two decades to emerge as two of the world’s greatest repositories of breathtaking players.

2.  India needs its Clairefontaine

In 1988, France opened the Institut National du Football de Clairefontaine, or simply, Clairefontaine, a massive, state-of-the-art football development centre set in an idyllic forest 50km from Paris. The French Football Federation diverted a huge amount of their budget for this, and also received state funding. France had experienced tremendous lows and some highs on the football field leading up to the opening of the academy, and the country had never won a major trophy. Clairefontaine was the centrepiece of France’s effort to change their footballing future. The finest experts of the game, and from other related fields like sports science, psychology and child development were brought together at this one place. The aim was to scout out the most promising 13-year-old players and put them through a unique two-year programme of skill development. Each year, French football identifies 1500 13-year-olds from across the country for a first stage of tryouts. 650 of them are then sent for a second round of trials at Clairefontaine. Finally, 24 are selected to spend two years at the academy. One of their first wards was a certain Thierry Henry. The two years he spent at Clairefontaine was laser-focussed on developing the fundamentals—receiving, passing, shooting, using both feet, ball-control, and positioning, along with a free and fun emphasis on individual creativity and experimentation. There are no competitive situations at Clairefontaine, and no matches are played. Since Clairefontaine was established—followed by 12 more such facilities across France—the country has won two World Cups, reached the final twice more, and won an European Championship. The latest product from Clairefontaine? Kylian Mbappe.

3.  One person and one system to rule them all

This is yet another critical aspect of football development that has been perfected in Europe. It was first developed in clubs like FC Barcelona and Ajax. Appoint a “technical director”, who, along with the coaches at various levels of the club, decides the needs of the first team of the club. Then they do a nifty bit of reverse engineering, forumulating a plan that starts at the junior-most level of the club’s academy, all the way through the age-group teams, to develop players in alignment with the identified needs of the first team. Everything, from scouting, technical development, physical development and tactical nous follows this set path. Belgium took this concept and applied it to the whole country, convincing all clubs, academies, and schools to follow the same path. Players like Kevin De Bruyne, Eden Hazard, Romelu Lukaku, were between eight and ten years old when this initiative started, and they spent more than a decade learning under the same structure and philosophy, so that by the time they were in the senior team, they knew each other’s games inside out already. This has now been widely adopted, in different ways, by all the major European countries and leagues. This is why you will notice that almost all teams in these leagues play similar styles of football, no matter how different their budgets and talent pools. A preference for the 4-3-3 formation and its variations, the ability to do a high press and a low block, players who can comfortably switch positions, keeping possession, a greater emphasis on spatial awareness and passing are the hallmarks of all major teams in the world. There are plenty of experienced “technical directors” in Europe India can choose from. Find out this person, hire this person, give this person all the freedom and at least ten years to implement his vision and don’t stand in his way. This is what Saudi Arabia has just done—the more meaningful side of its spectacular push to becoming a football powerhouse.

The one thing seen as India’s weakness, that football exists only in pockets in the country, can become its strength. If you don’t have an entire vast country to work with but concentrated, already well-known areas—say, West Bengal, Goa, Kerala, Punjab, Manipur, Mizoram, and Sikkim—then it becomes so much easier to bring all stakeholders on the same page—schools, colleges, academies and clubs—invest the funds in a meaningful way, and ensure effective monitoring.

4.  Teach the Teachers

The implementation of a development programme will only be as good as those tasked with putting it into action. That is, the coaches and administrators. This was, and is, Portugal's main thrust in its spectacular football development programme: keep churning out great coaches.

India has woeful coaches, with little knowledge of the game or its modern ways. There is an easy fix for this. English-speaking European nations like England, Portugal and Holland run hundreds of coaches’ training programs. As do countries closer to home, like Qatar and UAE. The All India Football Federation should enter into a partnership with one of these countries and send a wave of coaches for training. Once these coaches have finished their learning and apprenticeships, they can be hired by the AIFF to teach more coaches. Again, there is no need for inventing something new. Just good, solid learning and experience gained from the right places.

5.  Create a market

An effective, well-funded, well-structured and well-implemented youth programme is, in a nutshell, the only way to develop not just football, but any sport. But, if such a thing were to come to pass, within a decade, India will suddenly have a massive, well-trained talent pool. Where will these players go to realize the value of their talent and training? What they need is a well-paying league. The ISL is a good start, but it has too few teams, a problem in that it is disconnected from the rest of the football system (no promotion/relegation) and a very short season. All these will have to be addressed. A country needs a functioning top-tier league, and at least two-tiers of leagues below that, with a system of promotion/relegation between the three entities. The AIFF, in its celebration of the ISL, have left the I-League in complete disarray. A strong second league is essential for a strong top league. They exist for each other. Both have to be nurtured. This will ensure that there are enough teams for aspiring players to feel comfortable that football can be a livelihood. There are two other routes that should be explored if a successful youth development programme is implemented. Setting up a stable pathway for Indian players to go try out for clubs in major Asian leagues like those of Japan, Korea, Saudi Arabia and UAE. Expanding the market, and exposing players to different environments and playing philosophies instead of the comforts of home is essential. The second route is to form partnerships with the scouting networks of European clubs, who currently focus all their attention on Africa and South America. Let them come here, pick up some of our best youth talent and put those boys and girls through their academies.

Coda: Prepare to hit rock-bottom

Be comfortable with the idea that the Indian national team will hit rock-bottom if a long-term plan is implemented. Quick fixes to improve the national team’s Fifa ranking by a step or two does not go hand-in-hand with true development. Belgium, a tiny country with just 11 million people (that’s less than half the number of people living in Mumbai), began their football overhaul in 2000. Between 2004 and 2007, their Fifa ranking dropped from 16 to 71 (India could have taken them on at this point), and they did not make it to any tournament of note. By 2015, they were perched on top of the rankings, where they stayed for three years (they are currently No.5). Putting in a new foundation meant that the old structure that stood in that place had to be razed first.