The northeastern state of Mizoram is going to witness a largely bipolar contest between the ruling Mizo National Front and the main Opposition Zoram People’s Movement. The Congress, which was in power for two terms, was relegated to the third position in the state assembly in the last elections. It is attempting to break the MNF-ZPM bipolarity, but faces an uphill battle clawing back. There is also the Bharatiya Janata Party as the fourth player in the elections.
Tough Fight For Ruling MNF
The MNF led by chief minister Zoramthanga, who also happens to be the president of the party, had declared candidates for all the 40 assembly constituencies even before the declaration of election dates by the Election Commission of India. Barring three MLAs, the party has given tickets to the remaining 25 sitting MLAs. MNF fielding almost all its MLAs shows that the party is trusting its old faces – as this strategy also minimises the risk of rebellion by any MLA. It has also fielded 15 new faces, including two women candidates.
Since 1989, the ruling government has changed after every two terms. The MNF believes that this tradition is going to work in its favour this time.
However, the party faces anti-incumbency with a surging opposition in the form of ZPM. Knowing that the battle is tough, the MNF is banking on Mizo nationalism by exploiting the emotions of the Mizos on the issue of Chin-Kuki-Zomi refugees from Myanmar and Manipur, staying in the state, to sail through the upcoming elections.
Recently, the Zoramthanga government even refused to collect the biometric data of Chin-Kuki refugees of Myanmar by ignoring the direction of the Centre. It has to be mentioned that the Chin-Kuki-Zomi and Mizos belong to the same ethnic tribe called Zo.
This was done to send a crucial message to the Mizos that the MNF, despite being a constituent of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance, is always ready to make decisions in favour of the larger Mizo family, even if it means going against the wishes of the Narendra Modi-led BJP government.
In this way, the party attempts to blunt the attacks of the opposition ZPM and Congress by showing that the former isn’t subservient to the BJP. Additionally, the Manipur crisis has allowed the party to revive the old MNF slogan of Greater Mizoram – which aims to unite areas inhabited by the Zo tribes. The demand for Greater Mizoram has been raised by CM Zoramthanga himself more than once.
ZPM, A Sprightly Challenger
The ZPM, which sprang a surprise by emerging as the main Opposition party winning eight seats last time, has been hopeful of coming to power for the first time. This confidence can be traced to the party’s spectacular win this year in the first Lunglei Municipal Elections, where it won all 11 seats with a vote share of 49.3 percent while the ruling MNF was able to poll just 29.4 percent votes.
This result was significant because four assembly constituencies fall under this council – and these four seats were won by the MNF last time.
Like the MNF, it has also already declared the candidates for all 40 seats. The party also has projected a chief ministerial face – Lalduhoma, a senior politician with stints in many parties starting from the Congress to Mizo National Union to Mizoram People’s Conference to Zoram Nationalist Party to ZPM. ZPM has also allied with the Hmar People’s Convention, which has a base among the ethnic Hmar minorities of the state.
Despite all this confidence, its support base among the rural areas remains a weak link for ZPM. Of the eight seats it won last time, all — barring the Tuirial assembly constituency — were urban constituencies.
That winning rural seats remained a worry was reflected in the party’s working president Sapdanga’s comment that the party, if elected to power, would give importance to the interest of the farmers. This statement was clearly an attempt by the ZPM leadership to woo the rural voters.
Can Congress Break MNF-ZPM Bipolarity?
To stay afloat in state politics, the grand old party, which in terms of vote share was the second largest party, has formed the Mizoram Secular Alliance. As of now, the Zoram Nationalist Party, once a faction of ZPM, and the People’s Conference Party have joined the alliance. But both these parties don’t have a large base.
Congress’s situation hasn’t improved much even after a leadership change. The party is currently led by Lalsawta. This year party treasurer Zodingluanta Ralte resigned from the post after being unhappy with Lalsawta.
Days ago, the Congress MLA from Palak assembly constituency KT Rokhaw resigned from the party to join the MNF, which has nominated him from the same constituency. Meanwhile, former chief minister Lal Thanhawla remains an important face for the party. This became evident when he was included as a member of the recently constituted Congress Working Committee by national president Mallikarjun Kharge.
BJP Focus On Ethnic Minorities
The saffron party, which opened its account in the state for the first time in the last elections by winning in the Buddhist Chakma-dominated Tuichawng seat, has particularly targeted the constituencies where ethnic minorities are either dominant or are a crucial factor. There are 14 such constituencies.
The saffron party’s poor performance in this year’s Chakma Autonomous District Council (CADC) polls, however, put a question mark on its efforts to win maximum seats in these constituencies. The lone seat it won last time falls under CADC.
However, the saffron party got a boost this month after former minister K Beichhua, who won from the Siaha assembly constituency last time as an MNF candidate, officially joined the party. The Siaha constituency along with the Palak seat falls under the Mara Autonomous District Council (MADC), dominated by the ethnic Mara minorities. Prospects rose for the saffron party as this year in the Village Council polls it won a majority in 41 VCs out of 99 – and one of the reasons for this good performance was the unofficial support provided by Beichhua to the saffron party.
Sagarneel Sinha is a political commentator and tweets @SagarneelSinha. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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