Congress and BJP are locked in a close battle in Madhya Pradesh with most surveys predicting a photo finish similar to the one witnessed in 2018 when BJP won 109 seats and Congress 114 in a house of 230.
The BJP has been in power for almost 20 years since 2003, except for a brief 15-month period between December 2018 to March 2020. Eighteen years and eight months is a pretty long enough period for developing anti-incumbency.
Shivraj Singh Chouhan, who has been Chief Minister for most of this period, is suffering from voter fatigue as per analysts, this fact admitted by the party too, which is shying away from declaring him as its CM face.
Despite all this, surveys show Congress just scraping through, CVoter giving 119 and ETG 123, where the majority mark is 116.
So why is this happening?
What BJP-Congress’s Weak Seats Tell Us
A categorisation of seats on the basis of the last three elections of Madhya Pradesh, 2008-18, highlights key reasons for Congress underperformance.
If a party has won a seat 3/3 times in the last three polls since the delimitation exercise in 2008, it can be categorised as a “strong” seat.
If won 2/3 times then it can be called a “moderate” seat, and if won 1/3 times then “difficult” and if it hasn’t been won at all (0/3 times) then we can call it a “weak” seat.
The categorisation shows a low number of “strong” seats for Congress (10), but a very high number of “weak” seats (74). On the other hand, BJP has a comparatively high number of strong (58) and less number of weak seats (11).
This is the reason why Congress couldn’t cross the halfway mark in 2018 despite the mahaul (the favourable circumstances), while it lost by a big margin of seats in both 2008 and 2013. This is also the reason why BJP has been winning big, 143 seats in 2008 and 165 in 2013 – averaging nearly two-third majority, but when it lost, the gap was only five seats.
Effectively, the Congress party needs to win a simple majority of 116 seats from just 156 seats (230 less 74) which means it needs a very high strike rate of nearly 75 percent.
On the other hand, BJP has a head start with around 60 stronghold seats and requires a comparatively lower strike rate of 53 percent (116/219 seats) from the seats that it isn’t “weak”.
History doesn't repeat itself but is said to rhyme. Are we going to see Congress failing to convert another favourable electoral scenario (mahaul) like in 2018?
Structural Challenges And Regional Imbalances
MP Congress faces what we call in economics, structural challenges. A look at the regional distribution highlights that three-fourth of Congress’s weak seats come from three regions: Baghelkhand, Bhopal and Malwa.
These regions cumulatively account for 126 seats. In other words, 55 percent of the assembly strength are stronghold regions of BJP. The Congress couldn’t breach these three regions even in 2018. There is no region which Congress can claim to be its stronghold, as BJP can be termed “weak” only in 11 seats.
If it is able to maintain its 2018 lead in Chambal (Scindia area), Mahakaushal (Kamal Nath area) and Nimar (ST belt) in 2023, then these regions could emerge as Congress’s strong zones.
But There Are Swing Seats
Madhya Pradesh also has 64 swing seats, 61 of which have been swinging like a pendulum between Congress and BJP in the last three polls. Congress had won 41 of these in 2018 while the BJP 20.
The Congress will need to slog hard to retain these seats to break this swinging trend. On a net basis, it could face the wrath of the trend in 21 seats (41 minus 20).
Digvijaya’s Mission 66
Kamal Nath, early on, recognised the challenges faced by the Congress, and had entrusted Digvijaya Singh to tour 66 assembly seats the party had not won for multiple terms now.
In 2018, months ahead of the state assembly election, Digvijaya had similarly completed the arduous six-month-long Narmada Parikrama on foot, which was credited with helping rebuild the Congress organisation along its course.
During his recent tour, he visited over 100 assembly constituencies and may have sowed the seeds of a Congress comeback. Digvijaya has reportedly prepared a roadmap for a Congress win in these seats in the upcoming polls in 2023.
He stressed on the five Ss: sampark (contact), samvad (communication), samanvaya (coordination), samanjasya (adjustment) and sakaratmakta (positivity) during his tour to these seats.
On the other hand, the BJP has fielded seven MPs to boost its prospects in seats it lost in 2018 to the Congress. Both parties are trying to make a dent in each other’s backyard.
To sum up, winning Madhya Pradesh is very important for the Congress party, as it provides confidence to the cadre that it can defeat the BJP in a Hindi heartland stronghold of the saffron party. It seems to have taken steps to overcome the structural issues it faces in its comeback bid. Only time will tell whether it works or not.
Amitabh Tiwari is a former corporate and investment banker-turned political strategist and commentator. Twitter: @politicalbaaba. Views are personal, and do not represent the stance of this publication.
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