With some opinion polls and history giving a slight edge to Congress in Karnataka, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) supporters are now pinning their hopes on star campaigner, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, to give it a last-minute push to cross the halfway mark.
Modi’s appeal amongst the masses, his ability to establish an emotional connection with the voters, and his demi-god status, all make him capable of hitting a last-ball six required to win. In his campaigns, he has been targeting both the Congress and the JD(S) exhorting people to vote for BJP for a stable government in the state.
Modi Factor Quantified
The Modi factor is the additional votes that the PM brings to the BJP fold on account of his charisma/personal capital. These voters may not necessarily be ideologically aligned with the party. It increased from 27 percent in 2014 to 32 percent in the 2019 general elections, according to CSDS surveys. The Modi factor accounted for 77 percent of the lead which the NDA enjoyed vis-a-vis the UPA in 2019.
Modi Factor & State Polls
While state elections are contested on local issues rather than national issues, the Modi factor has helped BJP and its allies (NDA) win state after state since the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. So can he salvage the situation in Karnataka?
There are two scenarios in states, one where BJP is in power, the other where BJP is in opposition.
Modi 1.0: Between 2014 and 2019
In the period 2014 to 2019, NDA formed governments in 15 states while it lost power in four states. In 13 out of the 15 states it was in opposition. The party made these battles into a Modi versus the incumbent Chief Minister positioning the PM as the harbinger of change and growth under whose guardianship the state would prosper (double engine sarkar).
In six states, NDA was the incumbent (MP, Goa, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Rajasthan and Punjab). BJP lost 4 of these states. In these states, the Modi factor was negligible as voters took the performance of governments into account while casting their ballots.
In states where the party is in power, the performance of the state government is one of the key considerations for the voters. The party already has a face (in the CM) with baggage (good or bad). The Modi factor wasn’t enough to tide over the performance track record of incumbent chief ministers.
Voters increasingly are voting differently in state and national elections. “Modi tujhse bair nahin, Vasundhara teri khair nahin”, a popular slogan in 2018 in Rajasthan epitomises this trend.
Modi 2.0: Between 2019 and now
During this period, most state governments have got re-elected like Uttar Pradesh, Assam, Uttarakhand, Gujarat and Tripura while the party lost in Jharkhand and scraped through in Haryana with a post-poll alliance.
Wherever the party won, the CMs were popular, while in a few states, it changed the CMs before the polls to negate anti-incumbency. In UP, the Modi factor was 8 percent only as per the Axis exit poll, against 32 percent in general elections.
It didn’t work in Delhi, Odisha and Bengal, where BJP was in opposition and the chief ministers were powerful.
His Karnataka Campaign Tactics
Modi is holding 20 rallies in the state, the same as in 2018, along with roadshows in Bengaluru. A victory in the urban centre has eluded the BJP in the last two polls and Modi is paying special focus here.
Each of his rallies targets voters from 5-6 adjoining constituencies for maximum impact and amplification of messaging. He is using different messaging for different segments of voters.
In Coastal Karnataka where the Hindutva card works, Modi branded Congress as an anti-national and dynastic party. To counter the 40 percent commission charge of Congress, he alleged that the grand old party wants to make Karnataka its ATM.
Sniffing an opportunity as Congress promises to ban Bajrang Dal in its manifesto, Modi has started chanting “Bajrang bali ki jai” in his election rallies. He is using every trick in the book.
The Modi factor works differently when the party is in power and when out of power in states. In 2018 despite the favourable history of Karnataka favouring a new government and the Modi factor, BJP couldn't touch the majority mark.
Basavaraj Bommai is lagging behind Siddaramaiah (22 percent vs 40 percent) in the “Who is best suited to be CM” question in CSDS survey. Can Modi reduce this gap? It is a herculean task even for PM Modi.
Amitabh Tiwari is a former corporate and investment banker-turned-political strategist and commentator. Twitter: @politicalbaaba. Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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