Karnataka Elections: Its support scattered across regions and communities, can Congress turn this to its advantage?

Even a minor swing in favour of the Congress in 2023 compared to its 2018 voteshare can give a majority to the Congress party. Given the political mood, this may be possible, and does not seem impossible.

During the last four assembly elections held in Karnataka (2004, 2008, 2013 and 2018), Congress polled more votes than the BJP though it trailed behind the BJP in terms of number of seats won during the 2004, 2008 and 2018 assembly elections. During the 2018 assembly elections, Congress polled 38.1 percent votes, nearly two percentage points more compared to BJP’s 36.2 percent votes, but Congress won only 80 seats while BJP ended up winning 104 assembly seats.

The verdict of the 2008 Assembly election was also on similar lines. The BJP polled 33.9 percent votes while Congress polled 34.8 percent votes, but BJP won 110 assembly seats while Congress got restricted to only 80 seats. During the 2004 assembly elections BJP polled 28.3 percent votes and won 79 assembly seats while Congress polled 35.3 percent votes but won only 65 assembly seats. The 2013 assembly election was the only election when Congress with 36.6 percent votes managed to win 122 seats when BJP got restricted to 19.9 percent votes and 40 seats.

Geography And Politics

If any political party manages to get more than one third of the votes in any triangular contest, the party stands a good chance of winning the election. By this logic, Congress should have won all the Assembly elections held in Karnataka during the last two decades as Congress polled more votes compared to its rivals in all the assembly elections held since 2004.

But Congress had been in a disadvantageous position with regard to votes-to-seats conversion while this has favoured the BJP. It is because the BJP’s vote share has remained concentrated heavily in three regions of Karnataka: Mumbai Karnataka, coastal Karnataka and central Karnataka, giving BJP big victories in these regions.

The JD(S) has sizeable presence only in the southern Karnataka region but Congress votes are widely spread out in all the regions of Karnataka. While this has been to the disadvantage of the Congress, it could also have a positive impact. A minor swing (four percent) of votes in favour of the Congress, away from BJP and JD(S) can give a majority of seats to the Congress party in 2023.

Congress’s Rainbow Coalition

The Congress support base is also much broader compared to the BJP and JD(S), seen in terms of its support amongst various communities of voters in Karnataka. Findings from the survey conducted by Lokniti-CSDS during the 2018 Assembly election indicate, 51 percent of Dalits, 67 percent of the Muslims, 42 percent of Adivasi voters, 50 percent of Christians, and 36 percent of Other OBC castes voted for the Congress in 2018. Even amongst the upper castes, 35 percent voted for the Congress while amongst the Vokkaligas 28 percent voted for it.

The Lingayats went en-bloc to the BJP (60 percent) but even amongst them 21 percent voted for the Congress. Even if Congress failed to win the 2008 and 2018 assembly election, it enjoyed the support of a rainbow coalition, the kind of support which bolstered the Congress in many other states. Though the colours of that rainbow coalition of Congress have faded in many states, it still remains shining in Karnataka.

It is important to note that Dalits are 19.5 percent of the state population, Muslims are (14 percent)  Adivasi (5 percent), and Christians (2 percent). All these communities constitute roughly 38-40 percent of the state’s population. The Congress also has a reasonably good support base amongst the Other OBC castes who constitute nearly 16 percent of the state’s population and also get a chunk of Vokkaliga votes.

The BJP remains popular amongst the upper caste voters but Congress has not lagged far behind and has always managed to attract sizeable number of upper castes voters. The Vokkaligas vote en-bloc for the JD(S) but Congress also enjoys some support amongst them. The Congress still maintains a rainbow coalition in terms of its support base and given dissatisfaction amongst the voters, one could expect some  shift amongst sections of voters towards Congress, giving the party a decisive edge in the 2023 assembly election.

Sanjay Kumar is a Professor at Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS). He is also a Political Analyst. Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.