Of the five states – Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Mizoram – which go to polls next month, there is a lot of focus on the contest in the Hindi heartland. Various opinion polls have indicated Congress being in a comfortable position in Chhattisgarh, but of the race being closer both in Rajasthan and MP, some giving an edge to Congress in MP but not in Rajasthan while few others suggesting a different scenario.
Though it is extremely difficult to say which party voters would choose as voting day is still a few weeks away, there are a few explanations to offer on why the race looks close in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh.
Madhya Pradesh: Not Much Anti-Incumbency
We all remember the 2018 MP assembly election being very close as the difference in vote share between Congress and BJP was less than one percentage point. But during the last seven assembly elections (since 1990) in MP, the difference between the winner and the runner-up has been less than 5 percentage points, the 2003 and 2013 assembly elections being exceptions.
The difference in number of seats between the winner and the runner-up may have been very large, but not the vote share. Of these seven assembly elections since 1990, three have been won by Congress (1993, 1998 and 2018) while the other four (1990, 2003, 2008 and 2013) were won by the BJP.
In 2018, of the 114 seats Congress won, 40 were by a margin less than 10,000 votes. BJP’s performance was also similar; of the 109 seats BJP won, 44 seats saw a victory margin below 10,000 votes.
It is true that the BJP is facing some anti-incumbency in MP, some fatigue against the incumbent Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, but I neither get a sense of massive anti-incumbency against the BJP government nor an attraction for the Congress party.
The Congress does have the advantage of having a CM face, Kamal Nath, who is reasonably popular, and is bolstered by the fact that he is not facing a leadership challenge within the party. In my opinion, CM Chouhan is not unpopular, but somehow a perception has built, “ab bahut ho gaya” for no valid reason.
It seems voters are in a fix at the moment, sizeable numbers may be undecided, and may not have made up their mind which party to vote for. In my opinion that is why the picture in MP is not as clear as it is in Chhattisgarh.
Chhattisgarh: Congress’s Baghel Boost
It is true that the BJP won three assembly elections in a row in Chhattisgarh (2003, 2008 and 2013), but most of these elections were decided with less than one percentage point vote difference. But Congress made an emphatic comeback in 2018 by a big margin.
It won 68 of the 90 Assembly seats while the BJP won only 15 seats. The BJP trailed behind the Congress by more than 10 percentage points. Of the 68 seats which Congress won, it won 38 by a margin of more than 20,000 votes, while BJP won only one assembly seat by more than 20,000 votes.
Since then, CM Bhupesh Baghel has kept the Congress flag flying high. It would be extremely difficult for the leaderless BJP in Chhattisgarh to make a comeback, though not impossible. This contrast of a smartly-led Congress and a rudderless BJP explains why the contest in Chhattisgarh looks easy for the Congress.
Rajasthan: Mountain From A Molehill
Rajasthan presents a different story from the other two, one of the few states which has never repeated the same government since 1993. Since Congress has been in power, a confident victory for the BJP in 2023 should have ensued, but this does not seem to be the case at the moment.
Rajasthan has a mixed history of close and one-sided elections. 2018 was a very close election with Congress winning 100 seats and 39.3 percent votes, while BJP won 73 seats and 38.8 percent of votes. Both Congress and BJP have their fair share of problems: for Congress the Ashok Gehlot-Sachin Pilot tussle, and for BJP the power struggle between Vasundhara Raje and the central leadership.
What makes the contest look close is that the Congress seems to have made a comeback with some sort of patch-up between CM Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot and the effect of welfare schemes rolled out by the Chief Minister during the last one year. Meanwhile, the BJP, which otherwise should have been in a commanding position, is not confident due to factionalism.
The results of each of the five states which go to polls in the coming month are important, but greater importance is being attached to the three Hindi heartland states because BJP and Congress are in a direct contest. We have evidence from the 2018 polls to indicate that the verdict of assembly elections may not influence voting choices for the Lok Sabha election. But a strong belief endures that the three Hindi heartland results might indicate what could happen in 2024, especially because the verdict for 2024 would largely depend upon how Congress is going to perform.
Regional parties may be able to hold their fort in their own states, but for INDIA alliance to do well in 2024, it is important that Congress must perform well. Congress has performed badly when up against the BJP in direct contests. One should not forget there are roughly 225 seats where Congress is in direct contest against the BJP. For the INDIA alliance to push the BJP the Congress must perform well in these 225 odd constituencies.
Sanjay Kumar is a Professor at Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS). He is also a Political Analyst. Views are personal, and do not represent the stance of this publication.
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