Though the outcome of last month’s five assembly elections are unlikely to impact the next Lok Sabha poll only some months away, the stakes are high for the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Congress, which are locked in a direct contest in the crucial states of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. The results in the other two states, Telangana and Mizoram, are equally crucial where the national parties are battling it out with regional players.
The exit polls have come out with vastly different figures but they all suggest that these elections have witnessed a tight contest even in Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan which were widely expected to record comfortable victories for the Congress and the BJP, respectively. Similarly, it appears that Congress faces the prospect of sitting in the opposition ranks once again in Madhya Pradesh while the grand old party stands a chance of edging out the Bharat Rashtra Samithi government in Telangana.
Also Read: Assembly Election Results 2023 Live: BJP ahead in Rajasthan and MP, Cong gaining in Telangana
Congress Needs Two Wins
It is imperative for the Congress to form governments in at least two of the five states which went to polls last month. Coming shortly after it won Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka, the addition of two more states to the party’s kitty will dispel the growing perception that the Congress is on oxygen support and energise the party cadre in the run-up to the general election. A victory in Telangana will be particularly encouraging as the Congress had been written off in the state. Besides, it will again underline that the BJP has failed to expand its footprint in the South.
Predictably, Congress workers will be quick to credit victories in these elections to Rahul Gandhi’s campaign and his successful Bharat Jodo Yatra. However, the truth is that it is regional satraps – Ashok Gehlot in Rajasthan, Kamal Nath in Madhya Pradesh, Bhupesh Baghel in Chhattisgarh and Revanth Reddy in Telangana – who led the campaign and were the faces of the party in their respective states. The poll results have the potential of either boosting their image or, alternatively, cutting them to size.
More importantly, a credible result will enable the Congress to drive a hard bargain in its seat-sharing negotiations with its INDIA bloc allies and place the Congress in the lead position in the alliance, which will not be to the liking of its partners. As it is, these assembly polls led to some tension in the alliance after Congress veteran Kamal Nath dismissed the Samajwadi Party’s demand for a few seats in Madhya Pradesh. The Congress could end up paying a heavy price if it persists with this “my way or the highway” attitude.
On the other hand, a below par performance by the Congress will not only make it difficult for the party to push its case with its INDIA allies but will also demoralise its workers who may start looking for greener pastures closer to the Lok Sabha polls.
BJP: CM Faces Inconsequential?
While the Congress has far more riding on these elections, it is equally vital for the BJP to register a good showing. If it does well, it will reinforce the popular belief that the BJP is well on its way of registering a third successive win in next year’s Lok Sabha polls.
Though Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity remains undiminished, a victory in two or three states will add further lustre to his image since he was the BJP’s lead campaigner in these elections. The BJP can draw satisfaction from the fact that it can win state polls without necessarily projecting a chief ministerial face and that Modi’s charisma is sufficient to bring in the votes.
But, above all, the BJP will be pleased that it managed to stop the Congress in its tracks, especially in states where the two parties face-off with each other.
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