Assembly Elections 2023: Ten big (and common) themes across the poll-bound states

KCR is facing a serious threat from a resurgent Congress in Telangana while ZPM is determined to topple Zoramthanga’s MNF government in Mizoram. Bhupesh Baghel seems to be bearing the brunt of dissatisfaction against his sitting MLAs and a comeback by the BJP riding on the weakening of the Amit Jogi-led JCC.

2. Ruling Governments Facing The Music

The incumbent governments across states are fighting with their back to the wall to retain power. Even ruling parties in Chhattisgarh and Telangana which were touted a few months back to win comfortably are witnessing close contests as per the latest rounds of C-Voter survey. Anti-incumbency is the buzz word with the economy a pain point for all governments.

3. Sitting MLAs Face Anti-Incumbency

Ironically despite their current difficulties in getting re-elected, the satisfaction levels with governments across states was relatively decent in opinion surveys. The incumbent CMs also remain popular leading in the “who is the preferred CM candidate”question. However, the local level anti-incumbency against the sitting MLAs is high.

Vidhan Sabha elections are a lot about local candidates and how they disburse patronage, undertake localised public works or intercede for constituents with bureaucracy. Thus the performance of sitting MLAs is impacting the return of governments headed by popular CMs. For example, in MP, 40 percent voters blame the MLAs for their current situation/issues.

4. Vocal For Local

The BJP after burning fingers in Himachal and Karnataka has realised the importance of local candidates over high command campaigning and re-calibrated its strategy. It has already announced candidates for 136 seats in MP, 41 in Rajasthan and 85 in Chhattisgarh. BRS too has announced candidates for 115 of the 119 seats.

In the 2018 Rajasthan elections, for around 50 percent of respondents, local candidates were the most important voting consideration as per CSDS post poll studies. For Telangana the corresponding number was 42 percent, Chhattisgarh 32 percent and MP 31 percent.

5. Seat-By-Seat Grind

The elections are turning into a seat by seat contest which is very different from a highly presidential style election. Such a battle is theoretically very difficult for any ruling government to contest. Any incumbent loves to contest elections on CM face, state level achievements and issues, but as soon as it gets down to seat level dynamics, it becomes difficult to manage.

6. It’s The Economy, Stupid

Economy is clearly the pain-point today for not only the Centre, but also state governments. Unemployment and price rise feature amongst the Top-3 issues across states. Voters normally make a comparison of how better or worse off they are in the current regime vis-a-vis the previous one.

Personal loans have overtaken industry and services loan books accounting for 32.1 percent of bank credit share highlighting economic distress. With India’s monsoon hitting five-year-low, the mood of farmers could prove to be decisive.

7. Current Vs Future Labharthis

The BJP is banking on its central and its state government schemes to bail it through especially in Hindi heartland three states. However, it is wary of the five guarantees/promises of Congress which trumped it in Himachal and Karnataka.

The Congress, cognisant of BJP’s nouveau vote bloc, is luring these voters promising to make them labharthis of better/progressive schemes if it comes to power.

8. Women Power

The female voters are more than male voters in Chhattisgarh and Mizoram, and equal to males in Telangana. The women are increasingly emerging as kingmakers in elections and can tilt the scales in favour of any party.

In UP they backed Yogi Adityanath for improvement in law and order situation while in Karnataka they backed Congress due to its guarantees. While BJP is trying to milk benefits of women reservation bill, opposition is charging the party of denying the OBC women their rights. It remains to be seen whose narrative works on the ground.

9. Caste Census Vs Hindutva

While the Opposition has high hopes from its promise of caste census to unite the backwards, dalits and tribals against the Hindutva narrative of BJP, the saffron party hopes that its socio economic class based labharthi vote bank would neutralise the impact.

The PM has labeled the caste census demand as divisive politics of opposition. BJP hopes that OBCs remain loyal to the party due to central schemes, higher representation and emotive issues like Hindutva and nationalism.

10. Late Deciders

To top it all, what makes the elections unpredictable is the fact that there are 25-30 percent voters who are late deciders, 12-15 percent finally decide whom to vote for on the day of polling and another 12-15 percent 2-3 days before polling as per CSDS National Election Studies over the years.

Interestingly, the chart above shows that among the states headed to polls this time, Telangana (57 percent) and Chhattisgarh (55 percent) feature amongst Top-5 late deciders states as per Axis MyIndia exit poll for 2019. Which way will they swing?

Amitabh Tiwari is a former corporate and investment banker-turned political strategist and commentator. Twitter: @politicalbaaba. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.