Billed as the semi-finals before the grand finale in April-May next year, the assembly elections results in five states will set the ball rolling for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. Three days before the counting of votes on December 3, the varied exit polls have not predicted a clear winner in any poll-bound state.
High Stakes For Congress
Two surveys gave a landslide to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Madhya Pradesh, bucking reports of a Congress comeback and strong anti-incumbency in the run up to the polls.
A close fight between the BJP and the Congress is on the cards in Rajasthan, which has a 30-year-old tradition of throwing out an incumbent government after every five years.
The two parties are also locked in a keen battle in Chhattisgarh though the Congress has an edge while the grand old party is also predicted to cause a major upset by ousting the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) from power in Telangana. A hung assembly has been forecast in Mizoram.
In case the Congress emerges as a winner in these tight contests, it could galvanise the cadre and put the party on the road to resurgence ahead of the Lok Sabha polls.
BJP: Resilient In North, Slipping In South
On the other hand, a victory in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh will put the BJP in a dominant position in these three Hindi heartland states.
However, the main worry for the BJP poll managers would be its diminishing presence in south India with exit polls predicting a poor show by the saffron party in Telangana.
From being a main challenger to the BRS some months ago, the BJP has been pushed to the third spot in the country’s youngest state. This would come on the heels of its ouster from its stronghold in neighbouring Karnataka by the Congress.
What 2018 and 2019 Tells Us
Though the results will give a major boost to the winning parties, it would be premature to view these elections as a barometer of the dominant national mood. It has been seen that people vote differently in the assembly elections vis-a-vis the Lok Sabha polls.
Take for example, the assembly elections in these five states in 2018. The Congress dethroned the BJP in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh but went on to record a dismal performance in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections in these three states.
Out of the combined 65 Lok Sabha seats in these three states, the Congress barely managed to win just three. While it failed to open an account in Rajasthan (25 seats), the grand old party bagged one in Madhya Pradesh (29 seats) and two in Chhattisgarh (11 seats).
In 2019, the BJP earned a massive mandate of 303 seats and the Congress came a distant second with 51 seats.
Political observers then attributed the BJP's stupendous victory to the air strikes on terror camps across the Line of Control in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir in response to a suicide attack in Pulwama that killed 40 Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) personnel.
The action had further cemented Prime Minister Narendra Modi's image of a decisive leader who is willing to take on India's adversary at any cost. His punch line during the campaigning then was “hum ghar mein ghus ke marenge (we will enter your house and kill you)”. The heightened nationalism that followed is believed to be one of the main reasons behind the BJP’s landslide win.
Modi Vs INDIA Alliance
In 2023, Modi continues to remain the most popular leader in the country and the central figure around whom the BJP revolves its electoral narrative.
While there was no strong challenger against Modi in 2019, the political landscape could see a change in 2024 with several opposition parties having come together under one banner - INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance).
Despite being engaged in a bitter turf war in several states, the constituents of the INDIA bloc could set aside their differences to project a common face against Modi.
One such name doing the rounds is Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge who could be projected as the first Dalit Prime Minister of India in a move that would be viewed as going beyond mere symbolism.
The last time a Dalit leader came close to becoming the Prime Minister was in 1977 when Babu Jagjivan Ram's installation was scuttled due to internal conflict within the Janata Party.
The other contenders from the opposition bench include Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar and his West Bengal counterpart Mamata Banerjee.
2024 Battle Will Now Start
While the assembly elections results cannot be a yardstick to predict the outcome of the Lok Sabha polls, these will impact the arithmetic of the Rajya Sabha in coming months.
Once the dust settles over the results of assembly elections, all the political parties will get into an aggressive campaign mode for the Lok Sabha polls.
While the BJP's campaign will primarily be centered around Prime Minister Modi's personality and his initiatives, the opposition parties, led by the Congress, are also getting battle ready.
The issues of caste census to wrest the OBC (Other Backward Classes) vote bank from the BJP, old pension scheme, guaranteed minimum support price for farmers, apart from price rise and unemployment will dominate their campaign talking points.
As battlelines are being drawn for the grand finale this summer, all eyes are now on the counting of votes.
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