Western Uttar Pradesh sees decline in voter turnout: Absence of emotive issues or summer heat to blame?

Rahul Verma, Fellow, Centre for Policy Research wrote in his article `No wave in sight, big surprises are unlikely in offing’ : “While Modi enjoys considerable popularity in public opinion polls, there is no big pro-incumbency mood outside the core base - the so-called "wave election". The proportion of respondents in the Lokniti pre-poll surveys who said that the government should get another chance was lower than the PM's popularity rating and the NDA's projected vote share.”

Will this muted campaign and the high probability of the incumbent's return as projected by the surveys impact the intensity of political mobilization, and therefore, result in lower turnout? Verma questioned in his analysis.

Nomita P Kumar from the Giri Institute of Development Studies emphasizes that historically, the western part of Uttar Pradesh has seen high voter turnout. However, she points out that the 2019 elections were marked by the emotional impact of the Balakot strike, which boosted national spirit and voter engagement. This time around, she notes, the election campaign lacks such emotive issues.

“Even the Ram Temple failed to bring people to the polling booths,” she remarked, attributing the lower turnout to local concerns such as candidate selection, discontent with certain parties, and possibly even the oppressive heat.

The sharpest decrease in turnout was observed in Rampur and Muzaffarnagar, followed by Bijnor.

"In Muzaffarnagar, the turnout fell from 68.2% in 2019 to 59.29% this year," noted an Election Commission report, highlighting an 8.91% decline.

In Muzaffarnagar, a direct contest was held between BJP candidate Dr. Sanjeev Balyan and SP candidate Harendra Malik, with BSP candidate Dara Singh Prajapati's performance potentially influencing the electoral outcome. The voter turnout in Muzaffarnagar declined from 68.2% in the 2019 elections to 59.29% in 2024, marking a significant decrease of 8.91%.

Dissatisfaction among Kshatriya voters in Charthawal and Sardhana assembly constituencies seemed to be a major factor. The Chaubisi community in the Sardhana assembly constituency experienced a vertical division, leading to fragmentation in villages where the BJP received unilateral support. Despite this, some regions witnessed efforts by elders and women to mitigate the damage.

In Ghaziabad, protests among the Kshatriya community were widespread due to the cancellation of General VK Singh's ticket, which was then awarded to a candidate from the Vaishya community. Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath took steps to address this resentment by organizing public meetings and convening panchayats in Kshatriya-dominated areas.

In Rampur, the polling percentage came down from 63.17% in 2019 to 54.77% in 20224 – a decline by 8.4 percent. There was a direct contest between BJP candidate Ghanshyam Singh Lodhi and SP candidate Maulana Mohibbullah Nadvi.

“The low percentage of votes is a clear indication that supporters of Azam Khan did not come out to vote," said Ashraf Jameel, a local journalist, regarding the impact of candidate selection on voter mobilization.

Moradabad saw a direct contest between BJP candidate Sarvesh Singh and SP candidate Ruchi Veera, with BSP's performance likely to sway election results.

Pilibhit, which witnessed a direct contest between BJP's Jitin Prasad and SP's Bhagwat Saran Gangwar, also registered a decline in vote percentage by over 5%," stated an Election Commission spokesperson.

Despite the overall decrease in turnout compared to 2019, Saharanpur continued to witness substantial voter participation. This was probably because there was a direct fight between BJP candidate Raghav Lakhanpal and Congress candidate Imran Masood," observed a local election official. "The Hindu-Muslim polarization had its impact on polling.

In Kairana, where BJP's Pradeep Chaudhary and SP's Iqra Hasan locked horns, the impact of the Kshatriya community's displeasure was evident," remarked a political analyst. "BSP's Shripal Rana could influence election outcomes.

With temperatures soaring above 40 degrees Celsius, the Election Commission faces the challenge of motivating voters to achieve higher turnout goals despite adverse weather conditions," expressed an Election Commission official.

In the aftermath of the first phase of polling, all political parties are asserting confidence in their prospects for victory, setting the stage for a fiercely contested electoral battle in the next phase of election Uttar Pradesh.