The political fabric of the Azamgarh Lok Sabha constituency in Uttar Pradesh has long been woven by the alliance between Muslims and Yadavs, a combination that has consistently delivered electoral victories for Akhikesh Yadav.
In numerical terms this coalition has secured 17 wins in the last 20 elections, highlighting its potent influence.
As the May 25 election approaches, this enduring M-Y alliance faces another test. This time, the electoral battle is primarily between two Yadav candidates, while the Dalit vote is expected to significantly impact the outcome. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has nominated Bhojpuri actor and current MP Dinesh Lal Yadav, known as Nirahua, against the Samajwadi Party’s (SP) Dharmendra Yadav, cousin to SP leader Akhilesh Yadav. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has added further complexity by fielding Mashood Ahmed, making it a three-cornered contest with nine candidates in total.
After Mainpuri, Kannauj and Etawah, the Samajwadi Party had made Azamgarh as its bastion. Even SP patriarch Mulayam Singh Yadav contested the election from here. Akhilesh too won the 2019 election, but the SP lost the bye-election to BJP when Dinesh Yadav won election from here.
"Akhilesh has not taken that by-election defeat lightly. This time it is a grudge election and naak ka sawal for Akhilesh to win Azamgarh, " Ramesh Singh, a senior journalist based in Varanasi said.
He said intensity for this election is so high that Akhilesh's family members including his wife Dimple have taken part in electioneering.
Azamgarh, historically renowned for its literary figures such as Ayodhya Singh Upadhyay and Kaifi Azmi, has also had to contend with a darker reputation linked to alleged terrorism connections. Despite this, the region has seen considerable progress and a shift towards peace in recent years.
The election dynamics are further stirred by Shah Alam, also known as Guddu Jamali, who recently joined the SP. Guddu, who previously contested against Mulayam Singh Yadav and secured over 2.66 lakh votes in 2014, could play a pivotal role by consolidating his supporters under the SP banner.
In the 2022 by-election, Nirahua narrowly edged out Dharmendra Yadav by a margin of 8,000 votes, even though his vote tally had significantly decreased from the 2019 general elections. This election, with shifting allegiances and potential vote splitting, is under intense scrutiny.
Since the 2009 delimitation, Azamgarh’s parliamentary constituency now includes the assembly segments of Azamgarh Sadar, Gopalpur, Sagdi, Mubarakpur, and Mehnagar, all represented by SP MLAs. Despite the BJP’s strong presence in Uttar Pradesh, the SP maintained control of all ten seats in the district during the 2022 assembly elections, underscoring the strength of the M-Y coalition.
The political landscape has evolved significantly over the decades. The Congress, which dominated until 1984, lost its hold with the advent of Mandal-Kamandal politics and the BSP’s emergence in 1989. The BJP's breakthrough came in 2009, but subsequent elections saw the seat return to SP, with notable victories by Mulayam Singh Yadav and later Akhilesh Yadav.
As the electorate heads to the polls, unemployment stands out as a major issue, with both Akhilesh Yadav and Nirahua focusing on development initiatives. The district’s demographic mix includes 24% Dalits, 20% Yadavs, and 12% Muslims, each group expected to play a crucial role in determining the election’s outcome.
Ramesh Singh, the journalist said the upcoming election in Azamgarh is poised to be a crucial test for established alliances and emerging political strategies, with the outcome likely to reveal the effectiveness of the M-Y combination in contemporary politics.
Candidate Profiles
Dinesh Lal Yadav "Nirahua" (BJP): Running for the third time, Nirahua, a celebrated Bhojpuri actor and singer, first won the MP seat by defeating Dharmendra Yadav in the 2022 by-election.
Dharmendra Yadav (SP): Nephew of Mulayam Singh Yadav, contesting Azamgarh for the second time. Previously an MP from Mainpuri and Badaun, he lost to Nirahua in the 2022 by-election.
Mashood Ahmed (BSP): A local from Paharpur with deep roots in student politics, he recently joined the BSP with his wife, aiming to attract support from both the Muslim community and BSP loyalists.
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