As the eight constituencies in the first phase of the election in Uttar Pradesh go to poll today, the focus has shifted to the next eight which will vote in the second phase of the Lok Sabha elections. A fierce battle is expected in these eight high-profile seats on April 26.
With significant implications for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), the INDIA bloc, and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), this phase promises a contest of paramount importance.
“This phase is important for Jayant Chaudhry because his family once ruled Baghpat, Meerut for BJP because the party fielded Lord Ram of TV serial Ramayana and of course, Mathura as cine star Hema Malini gets the third term,” said Rajesh N Bajpai, a political analyst.
The eight constituencies that will vote in the next phase are Amroha, Meerut, Baghpat, Ghaziabad, Gautam Buddh Nagar, Bulandshahr, Aligarh, and Mathura, each representing a distinct demographic tapestry.
While the BJP and its ally, the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), have traditionally held sway over most of these seats, the BSP emerges as a formidable contender, particularly in select constituencies.
Notably, in the 2019 elections, the BJP clinched victories in seven out of the eight seats, with the lone exception being Amroha, secured by the BSP in alliance with SP and RLD.
In the upcoming elections, the second phase will test the RLD's influence over Jat voters and the SP-Congress alliance's sway over Muslim voters. Except for Mathura, where Muslims comprise 8.5% of the population, the remaining seven constituencies have Muslim votes ranging from over 16% (Gautam Buddh Nagar) to 39% (Amroha). The BSP also holds significant influence in most of these constituencies, and its decision to contest independently will be closely watched.
Amroha
In the 2019 elections, Amroha was the only seat that eluded the BJP despite the Modi wave. BSP's Kunwar Danish Ali wrested the seat from the BJP, securing over 60% of the votes polled. Amroha has historically been a diverse constituency, witnessing victories by various political ideologies and parties, including the BJP, RLD, BSP, and independents.
The sitting Amroha BSP MP Kunwar Danish Ali, who had won the seat in 2019 when BSP-SP-RLD had teamed up against the BJP, is now contesting the polls as the Congress candidate.
BJP candidate is Kanwar Singh Tanwar, who had won the seat in 2014, has its own meaning as the Congress has not won the seat since 1984. Mujahid Hussain is candidate from the Bahujan Samaj Party ..
Meerut
Although Meerut has a substantial Muslim voter base of around 34%, the BJP has emerged victorious here five times since 1996. BJP's Rajendra Agrawal won the seat three consecutive times, but in 2024, the party replaced him with Arun Govil, known for portraying Lord Ram in the 80s TV serial 'Ramayan'. This unexpected entry has added an intriguing dimension to the contest, with BSP and SP fielding their respective candidates. Atul Pradhan from SP and Devvrat Tyagi from BSP are in fray.
Baghpat
Baghpat has traditionally been a stronghold of Chaudhary Charan Singh's family. However, in 2024, the BJP has allied with the RLD, denying a ticket to its former candidate, and fielding Rajkumar Sangwan against SP’s Arampal Sharma and BSP’s Praveen Bansal.
Ghaziabad
Ghaziabad, a constituency dominated by the BJP, has seen victories by Rajnath Singh and VK Singh. Gen V K Singh ha won election from here twice in 2014 and 2019. However, this time, the BJP has chosen a different candidate, Atul Garg, sparking dissatisfaction among some Thakur voters. Garg is facing tough contest from Dolly Sharma, Congress.
Gautam Buddh Nagar
Similar to Ghaziabad, Gautam Buddh Nagar has been a BJP bastion. BJP's Mahesh Sharma seeks re-election against SP’s Mahendra Singh Nagar and BSP’s Rajendra Singh.
Bulandshahr
Reserved constituency Bulandshahr has been a BJP stronghold, with the party winning except in 2009. BJP's Bhola Singh secured victory in 2019 and 2014, emphasizing the party's continued dominance. He is pitted against Girish Chandra Jatav (BSP) and Shicram Valmiki (Congress).
Aligarh
Although the BSP has a strong vote base in Aligarh, the BJP has secured victories in six out of eight elections since 1991. BJP's Satish Gautam aims for re-election against BSP competition. His main opponent is Brijendra Singh from Samajwadi Party.
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