As the political landscape in Meerut undergoes a seismic shift, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) finds itself on uncertain ground ahead of the upcoming elections. What initially appeared to be a strategic move - replacing three-term MP Rajendra Agarwal with Arun Govil, known for his portrayal of Lord Ram in the iconic television series "Ramayana" - has proven to be a gamble fraught with challenges.
The decision to field Govil was rooted in the belief that his association with the revered figure of Lord Ram would resonate strongly in Meerut, especially in the wake of the construction of the Ram Mandir and the BJP's campaign centered around the deity. However, as the electoral fervor grips Meerut, it has become apparent that the BJP could be navigating a treacherous path.
The absence of a Muslim candidate in the opposition's roster is a significant development in a constituency where Muslims comprise 36% of the population. Unlike previous elections characterized by polarization, all major political parties, including the Congress-SP alliance and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), have fielded Hindu candidates, diluting the potential for religious polarization.
In the backdrop of historical electoral data, the dynamics of the 2024 contest in Meerut are marked by intriguing nuances. While the BJP has historically performed well in the constituency, victories in 2009 and 2019 were achieved by narrow margins. The current scenario presents a departure from the past, with the SP-Congress alliance banking on a Dalit candidate, Sunita Verma, to capitalize on the Dalit-Muslim demographic, which constitutes a significant portion of the electorate. The BSP has fielded Devvrat Tyagi, representing the upper caste.
In 2019, Yaqoob Qureshi, part of the SP-BSP-RLD alliance, narrowly lost by less than 5,000 votes. The polarization of the election, with Qureshi being the sole Muslim candidate, contributed significantly to the outcome.
In 2014, BJP's Rajendra Agarwal secured his second term with a substantial margin of 2,32,326 votes. However, this victory was attributed to a division of Muslim votes as opposition parties fielded Muslim candidates, including Shahid Akhlaq of the BSP, Shahid Manzoor of the Samajwadi Party, and Nagma from the Congress. The BSP emerged as the runner-up.
In the 2009 election, the BSP nominated Maluk Nagar, a Hindu candidate. However, the presence of SP's Shahid Manzoor split the anti-BJP Muslim vote, leading to Nagar's defeat by just 47,000 votes.
Political analyst Prabha Shankar highlights the impact of candidate selection on electoral outcomes. The absence of non-Muslim candidates from both the SP and the BSP in recent elections has introduced new dynamics into the contest. Sunita Verma, the SP's Dalit candidate, is backed by her husband Yogesh, a former Samajwadi Party MLA, and her own tenure as Meerut's mayor.
Shankar emphasizes the strategic importance of the Dalit-Muslim demographic, which constitutes approximately 50% of the electorate in the Meerut Lok Sabha seat. The SP is leveraging this alliance to its advantage in the current electoral landscape.
In Meerut's bustling streets, divergent opinions among voters reflect the complexity of the political terrain. While some commend the work of incumbent MP Rajendra Agarwal, others voice apprehensions over the BJP's decision to alter its candidate. Senior BJP leaders remain steadfast in their commitment to development, citing initiatives such as infrastructure projects and economic growth as testaments to the party's efficacy.
Despite the emphasis on development, concerns persist over issues such as infrastructure expansion and caste dynamics. The decision by the BSP to field a Tyagi candidate has engendered a sense of solidarity within the Tyagi community, underscoring the enduring influence of caste affiliations in the electoral calculus.
BJP understands it is facing problems in Meerut and therefore Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath held rallies and meeting in different parts of the constituency. He even invoked Lord Ram saying: "Jo Ram ko laaye hain, aap ko unko laana hai” – a clear indication of asking people to vote for Lord Ram.
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