BJP-led NDA is poised to retain power for a historic third term but a surprise surge by opposition's INDIA bloc denied BJP a majority in the Lok Sabha, turning a widely expected one-sided contest into a tight race to the finish. The NDA, which was chasing a historic "400-paar" mandate, managed to win 292 seats while the INDIA bloc finished with 234. The opposition parties scripted a spirited recovery in big states like Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, West Bengal, Rajasthan and Karnataka to dent BJP's overall seat tally and spoil its dream run at the national election. Moreover, power is set to change hands in both Andhra Pradesh and Odisha, the two states where assembly polls took place alongside Lok Sabha elections.
Lok Sabha elections: Live updates
Here are the big highlights of the Lok Sabha election results:
Nitish, Naidu, NDA ... it's back to coalition politics: After dominating both the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP no longer appears to be the unstoppable force it did just a few months ago. The BJP won 240 seats in the general election, falling well short of the majority mark of 272. This means the party will have to rely on its NDA partners like JD(U) chief Nitish Kumar and TDP supremo Chandrababu Naidu to form its third straight government at the Centre. The last time the single largest party at the Centre did not have a majority on its own was in 2009 when Congress formed the UPA government with allies after winning 206 votes.
Rise of regional leaders: The election results have again underscored the importance of regional leaders, who have helped propelled the two national alliances - NDA and INDIA - to 200+ seats. In NDA, leaders like JD(U)'s Nitish Kumar and TDP's Chandrababu Naidu will be closely watched since they will now hold key to a stable government at the Centre. Similarly, in INDIA, TMC leader Mamata Banerjee, SP chief Akhilesh Yadav, DMK's MK Stalin, Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Uddhav Thackeray and NCP (SC)'s Sharad Pawar will see a rise in their stock after posting a decent show in their respective states.
'UP ke ladke' a big hit: After a flop show in the 2017 assembly polls, the ambitious alliance of SP's Akhilesh Yadav and Congress's Rahul Gandhi - unofficially called "UP ke ladke" - has finally tasted success after springing a surprise in the most crucial political state. Trends show that SP is set to win 37 of the 80 seats in the state while Congress is likely to emerge victorious in 6. Altogether, INDIA bloc is on course to winning 43 seats in UP compared to BJP's 34. This is a huge decline for the saffron party compared to 2014 and 2019 when it romped home by winning 71 and 62 seats respectively in a state known for its intricate caste politics. Moreover, it appears that the grand Ram Mandir ceremony in Ayodhya earlier this year did not quite strike a chord with the voters.
No big change in vote share: Despite BJP losing nearly 63 seats and Congress gaining about 47, there was not much difference between the vote share of the two mainstream parties when compared with the 2019 figures. BJP secured a vote share of 36.5% in 2024 compared to 37.3% in 2019. That's a difference of less than 1 percentage point. On the other hand, Congress saw only a slight improvement in its vote share, which rose to 21.2% in 2024 from 19.4% in 2019.
INDIA's pole position in Maharashtra: The Maha Vikas Aghadi of Shiv Sena (UBT), Congress and NCP (SC) powered through several setbacks to upstage the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance in Maharashtra. MVA is set to win 30 of the 48 seats in the state while BJP-led NDA is securing 17. The results show that core voter of the party favoured Team Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar after both their parties suffered a vertical split.
Congress's V-shaped revival? In 2014, the outgoing Congress reached its lowest point in electoral politics when it won just 44 seats in the Lok Sabha. In 2019, it added just 8 more constituencies to its dismal tally and finished with 52 seats. However, the 2024 election is a story of a significant recovery with the grand old party winning 99 seats - just one shy of 100. Moral boost aside, this strong resurgence has allayed all talk of a "Congress-mukt Bharat" and will give fillip to the party that was hitherto on a downslide. It will also be a big win vote of confidence for Rahul Gandhi and his two pan-India yatras that may have helped re-energised the party's cadre.
Muslim-significant seats snub NDA: Out of 103 seats where Muslims comprise at least 20% of the electorate, the INDIA bloc got 54 while BJP-led NDA secured 44. Of these, BJP won just 37 seats.
Naidu juggernaut: In Andhra Pradesh assembly polls, the TDP is set to return to power after winning 132 out of the 175 seats in the state. Conversely, it is a big setback for Jagan Reddy-led YSR Congress which managed to win just 15 seats, after a landslide victory in 2019.
Setback for Naveen too: In Odisha, the BJP is on course to forming its first-ever government with leads in 80 out the 147 seats in the state. The Naveen Patnaik-led BJD is ahead in just 50 seats, This means that after 24 years, Odisha has decided not to re-elect Patnaik, who has been the chief minister of the state since 2000.
Bloodbath at D-Street: With BJP not securing a clear majority, the markets went into a tizzy with Indian benchmark indices losing more than 5 percent through the day. At close, Sensex was down 4,390 points or 5.74 percent at 72,079.05, and the Nifty was down 1,379.40 points or 5.93 percent at 21,884.50. Experts have hinted that markets are expected to remain choppy in the near term.
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