Lok Sabha Election 2024: 13 states where BJP-led NDA faces uphill task, according to psephologist Pradeep Gupta

Speaking to Moneycontrol, Gupta said the 13 states, including Maharashtra, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Haryana, Delhi, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and Goa, and some Union Territories, have 257 Lok Sabha constituencies between them, and the NDA had won 238 seats in the 2019 general election.

“During the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the NDA had a 93 percent strike rate in these states. However, considering the 2024 general election, the alliance in power has almost zero chances of getting more seats, and its tally may reduce. To reach 400, it will have to maintain at least its existing position,” said Gupta.

The psephologist reasoned that there has been a change in political dynamics in Maharashtra, Bihar, Karnataka and Delhi.

With its 48 Lok Sabha seats, Maharashtra ranks as the second-largest contributor to the lower house of Parliament, after Uttar Pradesh.

“Maharashtra has new alliances, and there has been a split in two major parties, the Shiv Sena and Nationalist Congress Party. The political equation has also changed compared to the last general election. Similarly, in Karnataka, the Congress party formed the government with a landslide victory and has the potential to win seats as well. In Delhi, the Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party have already stitched an alliance,” added Gupta.

In 2019, the undivided Shiv Sena, then led by Uddhav Thackeray, had forged an alliance with the BJP. The Shiv Sena, which had fielded candidates in 23 seats, won 18, while the BJP registered victory in 23 seats of the 25 seats it contested.

Scope of improving tally

In 2019, of the 185 seats in states including Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Odisha, Telangana, Assam and seven northeastern states, the NDA’s performance was 60 percent and won 109 seats.

“In these states, we see a scope for the BJP to improve its seat numbers. It cannot be predicted that the party certainly will benefit because the opposition had won 76 seats in these states together with a 40 percent strike rate,” added Gupta.

Read more: At war on poll turf, but AAP and BJP at peace over Ram Rajya dream

In Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Punjab, Andhra Pradesh and Kashmir, Gupta said the opposition parties had a 95 percent strike rate in the last general election. However, he added that the political dynamics had changed here also, which only suggests there is a possibility but doesn’t guarantee positive results.

“These states have 101 Lok Sabha seats, and the NDA had won only 5. It was the opposition that secured 96 seats,” he said.

EVMs and concerns

The use of electronic voting machines or EVMs has never been a concern for voters in India, said Gupta. He said, “In the last 11 years, Axis My India has done 69 poll predictions, including two Lok Sabha elections. We have been successful in 64 poll predictions but didn’t come across any concerns of rigging.”

People have nothing to do with alleged controversies over the electronic voting process; it is only being raked up by the political parties.

Position of INDIA alliance

The parties that are part of the opposition INDIA alliance are really not together, and their seat-sharing equations are different in every state, said Gupta, adding that the coalition has not shaped up as intended.

“The coalition has not taken the shape as it was planned by Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar, who is now part of NDA. You can see it in West Bengal where the Trinamool Congress did not leave any space for Congress. This is the situation in many other states as well,” he added.

The parties were supposed to have a seat-sharing agreement on almost 350 seats across India, but it has been able to come together only over 100 seats, he added.

“Apart from the alliance, I would say all the parties have made their own ways of putting a strong front,” said Gupta.

Manifesto

Elections always evolve around daave, vaade aur iraade (claims, promises and intentions), said Gupta, adding that claims will be always made by the incumbent government, promises will be made by opposition parties and based on these two aspects, voters base their intentions.

“People look at the credibility between the claims and promises. They consider their issues such as inflation, employment, and look at the party who is better placed,” he said.