The 2024 election results have unveiled a fascinating contest in Uttar Pradesh, where the ‘Do Ladke’ -Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav- of the Samajwadi Party (SP)-Congress alliance outperformed the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s much-vaunted 'double engine' strategy. This historic election marks a significant shift in the political landscape of India's most populous state.
The battle between the BJP and the SP-Congress alliance was intensely close. Compared to 2019, the BJP faced significant setbacks, while the SP demonstrated its best performance in terms of vote percentage. Akhilesh Yadav’s SP secured a substantial number of seats, marking the party's most successful performance in its electoral history, surpassing even the times of its founder, Mulayam Singh Yadav.
The SP-Congress alliance's strategy to consolidate the Dalit, OBC (Other Backward Class), and Muslim votes has effectively countered the BJP's Hindutva-driven campaign in Uttar Pradesh. Just a few months ago, Prime Minister Modi had overseen the consecration of the Ram Temple in Ayodhya, a move that seemed to secure the BJP's hold on the Hindu vote, cutting across backward classes and even Scheduled Castes and Tribes.
Back in January, the BJP appeared invulnerable, with the Ram Temple providing an additional layer of support to its already consolidated Hindu vote base. The opposition seemed fragmented, and the "double engine" narrative of Modi and Yogi Adityanath, referring to BJP governments at both the Centre and the state, dominated the political landscape.
However, this perception of sweeping saffron dominance began to wane after the SP and Congress sealed their alliance in late February. By mid-March, the initial enthusiasm for the new Ram Temple had dissipated. It became evident that the upcoming elections, like many before in Uttar Pradesh, would be fought along caste lines.
The Samajwadi Party won 38 seats, while the ruling BJP won 33 seats. This outcome clearly indicates that the SP and Congress benefited from their alliance, effectively transferring votes to each other. “This outcome will boost the opposition's confidence in Uttar Pradesh, leading to more aggressive challenges against the state government's policies and decisions,” said political analyst Manoj Bhadra.
The result has brought smiles back to the faces of Congress leaders. In the last Assembly Election, the party had won just two seats, and in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, it had secured only one seat from UP. Now, it has redeemed its position by winning six seats and even settled scores with Smriti Irani by winning the Amethi seat.
A significant factor in the SP and Congress’s success is the declining vote share of Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). Once known for a steadfast 20% vote base, the BSP's share has now reduced to around 9%. The shift of Dalit votes from BSP to the SP-Congress alliance and a strong consolidation of Muslim votes in their favor contributed to this success.
There is no doubt that this is the SP's best performance in terms of vote share. In 2004, the party won 35 seats with a vote share of 26.74%. The party's highest vote share previously was 28.7% in 1998 when it won 20 seats. This time, the SP is expected to receive over 33% of the votes. The Congress, contesting in alliance with SP, is also projected to gain more than 10% of the vote share, indicating a combined vote share of over 43%.
Founded in October 1992 by Mulayam Singh Yadav, the SP contested its first Lok Sabha elections in 1996, winning 16 seats with 20.84% of the vote in Uttar Pradesh. In the 1998 elections, SP increased its seats to 20 with a 28.7% vote share. Although the vote share dropped to 24.06% in 1999, the number of seats won rose to 26.
In 2004, SP further improved, winning 35 seats with a 26.74% vote share. However, in 2009, both the vote share and the number of seats decreased, with SP securing 23.26% of the votes and winning 23 seats. The 2014 elections were challenging, as SP won only five seats with a 22.18% vote share. In the 2019 elections, SP, in alliance with BSP, managed only five seats with a 17.96% vote share, its lowest in history.
In previous elections, the SP has experimented with various alliances, including ties with Congress, the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), and the BSP. These alliances and internal dissension within the SP’s first family, including opposition from Akhilesh Yadav's uncle Shivpal Yadav and his Pragatisheel Samajwadi Party (PSP), have led to inconsistent performances in past elections. Notably, internal conflicts contributed to the poor show in several strongholds and the defeat of Akhilesh’s wife, Dimple Yadav, from Kannauj.
Three successive losses and failed electoral experiments had substantially eroded the faith of SP supporters. However, this election marks a resurgence, showcasing the SP-Congress alliance's potential to mount a formidable challenge to the BJP in Uttar Pradesh.
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