Why Trump’s Alaska meeting with Putin could weaken US leverage in the Ukraine war

When asked about The New York Times’ report linking Russia to a major breach of US federal court systems, Trump appeared unconcerned. He called the hacking unsurprising and suggested that both the US and Russia engage in similar activities. He did not commit to raising the matter with Putin, underscoring what analysts describe as a long-standing softness toward the Russian leader.

Mixed messages on consequences

While Trump warned of “very severe consequences” if Putin refuses to end the war, he offered no specifics. Analysts like former ambassador Steven Pifer argue that Trump has so far failed to use available leverage, such as releasing $300 billion in frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine or expediting US-made weapons to Europe. Instead, Trump has mused about using “tariffs and stuff” as potential pressure points.

Risk of a one-sided meeting

Without Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky present, experts say the Alaska meeting could tilt in Putin’s favour. Trump has previously floated ideas aligned with Russian proposals, including territorial concessions in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region—terms Zelensky has already rejected. Fiona Hill, a former senior director for European and Russian affairs under Trump, noted that Putin also faces risks, as the prolonged war has damaged his reputation as a strategist.

A high-stakes but uncertain outcome

Trump said he has spoken with European leaders and Zelensky in preparation for the meeting but left open the possibility of cancelling any follow-up talks if his demands are not met. Critics warn that if the meeting ends without progress or concrete actions, it could embolden Putin while diminishing the perceived strength of the US presidency. As of now, sanctions against Russia have eased under Trump, and his administration has not announced plans to tighten them ahead of Friday’s talks.