At the centre of the trial is an alleged plan, code-named Green and Yellow Dagger, drawn up in November 2022 as Bolsonaro reeled from his narrow election defeat. Prosecutors say an army general in his government typed a three-page document at the presidential palace outlining how to assassinate President-elect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Vice President Geraldo Alckmin and Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes. The scheme listed poison, grenades and even rocket launchers as possible methods. Bolsonaro denies involvement, but prosecutors say the plot shows how far his circle was willing to go to keep him in power, the Wall Street Journal reported.
Evidence from inside the presidency
The general, Mário Fernandes, admitted to creating the document but insisted it was only a personal “risk analysis.” Investigators, however, note that it included reconnaissance details, routes, security information and lists of equipment, suggesting operational planning. The fact that it was produced inside the presidential offices while Bolsonaro still held power has been cited as evidence that the former president was aware of it. De Moraes, one of the alleged targets and now a presiding justice on the case, called the plan’s existence “amply proven.”
Bolsonaro’s defence and denials
Bolsonaro, under house arrest, has shrugged off the accusations, even telling the Journal earlier this year that “it isn’t a crime to want someone dead.” His lawyers argue the plan was the musings of a rogue general, not evidence of a coordinated conspiracy. Yet legal experts point out that it was discovered during a broader probe of Bolsonaro’s alleged coup attempt, which also included discussions of emergency decrees and mobilizing the military to stop Lula from taking office.
Echoes of January 6
Even after Lula was sworn in on January 1, 2023, prosecutors say Bolsonaro encouraged supporters to violently reject the election results. On January 8, mobs attacked Brazil’s Congress, Supreme Court and presidential offices—an assault compared to the U.S. Capitol riots two years earlier. Bolsonaro now faces five criminal charges tied to the failed coup attempt, with prosecutors describing the Dagger plan as bearing the “hallmarks of terrorism.”
The stakes for democracy
The case is being heard by a five-member panel of Brazil’s Supreme Court. Justice de Moraes cast the first vote to convict Bolsonaro, joined by Justice Flávio Dino. A majority would be enough to hand down a guilty verdict, which could send the former president to prison for life. Observers say the trial will test Brazil’s democratic resilience after years of political turmoil. “Not even the most pessimistic of us could imagine that something like that was being planned,” de Moraes said in court.
A nation on edge
For Lula, who survived earlier corruption scandals and a prison sentence before his return to power, the revelation of an alleged assassination plot has added personal stakes. He quipped that he was “thankful to be alive,” but the case underscores how political rivalries in Brazil have escalated into existential threats. With Bolsonaro’s fate now in the hands of the justices, Brazil’s “trial of the century” will decide not only the former president’s future, but also whether a fragile democracy can draw firm limits on authoritarian ambition.
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