Why Afghanistan-Pakistan border talks stalled and what it means for regional security

In response to the escalating violence, Qatar intervened as a mediator. Representatives from both countries met in Doha and agreed to halt hostilities beginning October 19. While the ceasefire reduced immediate fighting, it remained highly fragile, with both governments accusing the other of provocations. Even during the Istanbul talks, isolated flare-ups continued. Afghan authorities reported that four civilians were killed and others injured in recent cross-border fire, further undermining trust.

Stalemate at Istanbul

The Istanbul talks were seen as one of the most serious diplomatic efforts since 2021, marking the third round of recent negotiations. Mediators hoped to build on earlier discussions in Doha and a prior meeting in Istanbul at the end of October, which had yielded short-term commitments to maintain calm.

However, delegates clashed on fundamental security expectations, particularly Pakistan’s demand that Afghanistan prevent militant attacks originating from its soil.

Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid blamed Pakistan for the collapse of the dialogue, stating, “Pakistan’s demands in the negotiations were unreasonable and the talks could not proceed, the meeting ended and the talks are at a standstill for now.” He added, “(we) do not want insecurity in the region, and entering into war is not our first choice. If war breaks out, we have the right to defend ourselves.”

Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif offered a different perspective, confirming on Geo News that “talks are over” and the Pakistani delegation was returning with “no plan for any future meetings.” He stressed that Islamabad would not accept verbal guarantees alone, saying, “They said they would respect a verbal agreement, but there is no room for that.” The Afghan side, he added, “was unwilling to sign a written accord,” leaving negotiations in a “complete deadlock” and entering an indefinite phase.

Pakistan’s security concerns

At the centre of Pakistan’s demands is the expectation that Afghanistan take action against the TTP. Islamabad blames the group for numerous recent attacks and maintains that its leadership operates from Afghan territory. While the TTP has ideological ties to the Afghan Taliban, Afghanistan’s ruling authorities insist they do not control or guide the organisation.

Mujahid has reiterated Afghanistan’s stance, saying the country “will not allow anyone to use its territory against another country, nor permit actions that undermine its sovereignty or security.” He also emphasised that the TTP’s operations were not a product of the Taliban’s return in 2021.

Despite these assurances, Pakistan remains unconvinced. Islamabad argues that attacks within its borders are organised from Afghan soil and expects Kabul to impose tighter control. In response, Pakistan has carried out airstrikes and internal security operations targeting suspected militants, which Afghan officials claim have harmed civilians and questioned their effectiveness.

Impact on civilians and trade

While the Doha ceasefire has not been formally broken, Pakistan has maintained closures at major border crossings since October 12, allowing only limited crossings for stranded Afghan nationals. These restrictions have disrupted a key trade route connecting Afghanistan with South Asia, leaving hundreds of cargo vehicles stranded and causing economic strain on both sides.

Pakistan has also continued its campaign targeting undocumented migrants, mostly Afghan nationals seeking refuge. More than a million Afghans have been repatriated since 2023, straining public sentiment and exacerbating humanitarian conditions as Afghanistan faces economic challenges and resource shortages.

What happens next?

Turkey and Qatar, who invested considerable political capital in facilitating the talks, have yet to indicate whether future rounds will take place. Both governments have expressed appreciation for diplomatic efforts, but neither side has committed to resuming negotiations.

Asif noted the mediators’ fading optimism, saying, “If they still had optimism, they would have asked us to continue. Our return empty-handed shows that even they have given up on Kabul.” Meanwhile, Afghan representatives suggested Pakistan’s negotiating stance itself hindered progress.

Currently, communication between Afghanistan and Pakistan is largely limited to monitoring the ceasefire. The disagreement over responsibility for cross-border militancy remains unresolved, leaving prospects for further diplomacy fragile. No fourth round of talks has been scheduled.

(With agency inputs)