White House official says India already cutting Russian oil imports by 50% after US talks -- What we know so far?

State-run refiners say they are still waiting for official guidance, while private players argue that imports cannot be abruptly halted given long-term supply agreements and refinery requirements.

India is the world’s third-largest consumer and importer of crude, relying on overseas supplies for nearly 87 percent of its daily 5.5 million barrels per day requirement.

Until early 2022, India sourced most of its crude from Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. That changed when Moscow began offering hefty discounts after Western sanctions over the Ukraine conflict.

Russian oil, once just 1.7 percent of India’s basket in FY20, skyrocketed to nearly 40 percent in FY24, making Russia India’s biggest crude supplier.

Trade analytics firm Kpler reports that Russian crude still dominates Indian imports. September deliveries stood at around 1.6 million barrels per day -- roughly 34 percent of all imports.

Although this is slightly lower than the eight-month average earlier in 2025, Russian flows bounced back to about 1.77 million bpd in the first half of October.

“Indian imports of Russian crude are tracking at a strong 1.8 million bpd in October,” Kpler observed, adding that talk of any major cuts so far appears to be “political posturing.”

Analysts emphasise that any sudden halt in Russian barrels is unrealistic. Oil cargoes are bought weeks before they arrive. Much of India’s supplies until late November have already been contracted.

Even in a best-case scenario, a reduction in flows could begin only from late November if refiners stop fresh bookings now.

For now, Russian crude remains central to India’s energy strategy due to economics. Although discounts have shrunk from around $19–20 per barrel in 2023 to about $3.5–5 today, these are still compelling.

Russian Urals crude is also well-suited to Indian refineries and yields a higher volume of profitable fuels like diesel and jet fuel.

Russia today exports up to 4.8 million bpd globally, with China (47 percent), India (38 percent) and Turkey being its top buyers.

If India were to exit Russian purchases, the global market would feel the shock. Supply tightness could send crude back towards $100 a barrel, risking inflation.

India has kept fuel prices stable to contain inflation since 2022, partly by building a buffer through discounted Russian purchases.

The United States has criticised New Delhi for what it calls profiteering -- buying cheap Russian oil and exporting refined products -- but India maintains it has broken no laws.

There are no US sanctions on buying Russian crude, and India has adhered to the G7 price cap mechanism.

Experts argue that switching away from Moscow would mean higher costs -- possibly an additional $3–5 billion a year.

Imports would need to be rebalanced: 60–70 percent from the Middle East, with the US and Africa/Latin America filling the gaps.

But US crude, while an option, has limits. Kpler estimates India can at most raise US imports to about 500,000 bpd due to cost, distance and refinery compatibility issues.

“Icra believes domestic refiners will purchase crude from various sources guided by economics and availability,” said Prashant Vasisht of Icra Ltd.

He noted that shrinking Russian discounts have made Middle Eastern grades more competitive once again.

While political pressure mounts, energy security remains India’s top priority. For now, the message from New Delhi is simple -- no formal decision has been announced, and Russian oil keeps flowing.

With agency inputs