US-Saudi defence pact and F-35 sale explained: How it could empower Pakistan and why India can't ignore it

The agreement, signed in Washington, covers cooperation in several areas, including defence, nuclear energy, and artificial intelligence (AI). The White House said the nuclear component will create a “decades-long, multi-billion-dollar partnership built on strong non-proliferation standards.”

However, the most consequential part of the deal is the F-35 fighter jet sale. Trump hinted at the decision during a White House briefing a day before MBS’s arrival, saying, “I will say that we will be doing that, we’ll be selling F-35s.”

The F-35, manufactured by Lockheed Martin, is one of the world’s most advanced fifth-generation stealth fighter aircraft. It is central to the US Air Force’s air superiority and is often referred to as America’s “crown jewel.”

Each jet costs between $85 million and $115 million, with total lifetime costs exceeding $1 trillion. While many see the F-35 as a symbol of cutting-edge warfare, others, including Elon Musk, have described it as a “white elephant,” arguing that future warfare will rely more on drones than manned aircraft.

Saudi Arabia is reportedly seeking to buy around four dozen F-35s, making it the first Arab nation to operate the stealth fighter. Until now, Israel has been the only country in West Asia with access to these jets.

This development could strain US-Israel relations, as Israeli defence officials have long maintained that their military edge in the region depends on exclusive access to fifth-generation aircraft. “Israel’s air superiority in the Middle East depends on maintaining exclusive access to 5th-generation stealth craft,” an internal assessment by the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) warned.

Implications for Israel and West Asia

The F-35 sale introduces new complexities into an already volatile region. Saudi Arabia has not yet joined the Abraham Accords, which normalised Israel’s relations with several Arab states, though MBS has signalled openness to such an agreement.

“We want to be part of the accord, but we also want to be sure that we secure a clear path of a two-state solution,” MBS said during his US visit. “We want them to coexist peacefully in the region, and we will do our best to reach a deal.”

The introduction of Saudi F-35s may prompt an arms race across West Asia, with Iran, Turkey, and others likely to bolster their own air capabilities in response.

Why India is watching closely

For New Delhi, the US-Saudi agreement could have indirect but significant consequences. Earlier this year, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed a mutual defence pact that includes a clause similar to NATO’s Article 5, stipulating that an attack on one would be considered an attack on both.

Given Pakistan’s recent tensions with India, particularly after the Pahalgam terror attack and India’s Operation Sindoor, the idea of a militarily empowered Saudi Arabia sharing strategic ties with Islamabad raises concern.

Indian security experts say the entry of F-35s into the Saudi arsenal could alter the regional balance of power. “A Saudi F-35 fleet would strengthen Saudi Arabia’s air dominance, compelling regional rivals and other near-neighbours, including India, to reassess air and missile defence postures,” an analyst told The Times of India.

There are also worries that Pakistan could gain access to sensitive US military technology through its close defence and training relationship with Riyadh. Pakistan’s air force personnel have worked extensively with Saudi pilots for decades, and military cooperation between the two countries remains deep.

Some analysts warn that Pakistan could use this access to reverse-engineer technology, as it has done in the past. During the 1970s and 1980s, Pakistan’s nuclear weapons programme relied heavily on smuggled designs and materials through the AQ Khan network, which acquired centrifuge blueprints and enrichment know-how from Europe.

A potential new arms race

The US-Saudi agreement could also trigger a regional arms race. With Riyadh gaining advanced weapons technology, rival powers in West Asia, including Iran and Turkey, may respond by ramping up military procurement or developing indigenous stealth aircraft.

This could make the region even more unstable, especially given the ongoing conflicts in Yemen, Syria, and Gaza.

For India, the bigger challenge may lie in long-term strategic alignment. Saudi Arabia’s tilt toward the United States and its deepening ties with Pakistan could complicate New Delhi’s efforts to maintain neutrality and strong economic relations with the Gulf.

India may respond by modernising its own air capabilities and strengthening strategic autonomy. This includes accelerating production of indigenous LCA Tejas fighter jets and exploring advanced imports such as Russia’s SU-57 stealth aircraft, a potential rival to the F-35.

India also continues to maintain strong defence and intelligence ties with the United States, which could serve as a stabilising factor if tensions rise in the region.