Just days before his 90th birthday, the 14th Dalai Lama, Tenzin Gyatso, made a significant announcement: he confirmed that he will be reincarnated after his death and declared that only the Gaden Phodrang Trust – his personal office in exile – holds the exclusive authority to recognise his successor. “No one else has the right to interfere in this matter,” he said, clearly signalling a challenge to China’s efforts to control the reincarnation process.
This statement reopens a long-standing and politically sensitive debate: Who gets to choose the next Dalai Lama? And what happens if both China and the Tibetan exile community name different successors?
How is the Dalai Lama traditionally chosen?
The Dalai Lama is believed to be the reincarnation of Avalokiteshvara, the Bodhisattva of Compassion. After the death of a Dalai Lama, senior Tibetan monks begin a search for his reincarnation based on spiritual signs, dreams, and divinations. They often consult oracles and visit sacred lakes believed to show visions of the location of the reborn child.
Once potential candidates are identified, they are tested to determine whether they can recognize personal items from the previous Dalai Lama’s life. If the child passes these tests, he is officially recognised as the reincarnation and begins religious training.
This centuries-old tradition has remained largely spiritual and insulated from political interference, until China’s growing involvement in Tibetan affairs.
Why is this now a geopolitical issue?
Since the 1950s, China has maintained firm control over Tibet and its religious institutions. In recent years, Beijing has tried to exert greater authority over Tibetan Buddhism, including the right to approve or appoint the next Dalai Lama. In 2007, China passed a regulation requiring that all reincarnated “living Buddhas” be approved by the government. This move was widely seen as a way to ensure control over religious influence in Tibet.
Beijing argues that just as it played a role in recognising previous Dalai Lamas during the Qing dynasty, it has historical legitimacy. However, Tibetans in exile and many global Buddhist communities reject this claim, accusing China of attempting to manipulate a deeply spiritual process for political gain.
Could there be two Dalai Lamas?
The current Dalai Lama has indicated that he may be reborn outside of China, likely in a free Tibetan exile community, such as in India. He has even said that if China names its own Dalai Lama, that individual will not be recognised by the Tibetan people.
This opens the door to the possibility of two rival Dalai Lamas: one chosen by chosen by the Tibetan religious community in exile, recognised by the Gaden Phodrang Trust and the global Tibetan diaspora; and one chosen and endorsed by the Chinese Communist Party, to serve Beijing’s political narrative and maintain its control over Tibet.
This scenario could lead to a major schism in Tibetan Buddhism and create diplomatic complications for countries that must decide which Dalai Lama to engage with or acknowledge.
What’s at stake?
At the heart of this issue is the survival of Tibetan cultural and religious identity. For Tibetans, the Dalai Lama is not just a religious figure, but also a unifying national symbol. If China is allowed to appoint a Dalai Lama, many Tibetans fear it will be an attempt to install a puppet leader who will legitimize Beijing’s authority in Tibet.
For China, controlling the next Dalai Lama means curbing Tibetan resistance, ensuring long-term political control, and weakening the influence of the exile community based in India.
For India and the wider world, it could become a serious diplomatic issue. India has hosted the Dalai Lama since 1959, and any move by China to impose a new spiritual leader could add strain to already tense India-China relations.
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