Trump threatens new economic penalties on Russia over stalled Ukraine ceasefire talks

Stalled diplomacy and differing interpretations

Despite multiple rounds of negotiations, including talks over a proposed cease-fire in the Black Sea and a limited halt on airstrikes, progress has been minimal. Russia and Ukraine have continued attacking each other’s energy infrastructure, and efforts to strike a more comprehensive deal have been marred by diverging accounts from Washington and Moscow.

While the Trump administration has characterized the discussions as “broadly successful,” former diplomats noted how little had actually changed. Russia’s push to link a cease-fire to sanctions relief has particularly complicated the talks.

US hawks gain influence as Trump grows frustrated

Trump’s tougher rhetoric appears to reflect a growing shift within his own team. Advisers with more hawkish views on Russia, including those advocating more aggressive energy sanctions, are gaining influence as Moscow continues dragging its feet.

In a recent post on Truth Social, Trump cited “Russian aggression” in tandem with Chinese expansionism to justify renewed interest in acquiring Greenland, a line that Glen Howard, president of the Saratoga Foundation, called a pointed dig at the Kremlin.

Secondary tariffs: an untested weapon in economic warfare

Trump has previously floated secondary tariffs against countries buying oil from Venezuela. His latest comments suggest a similar approach toward Russia, blending tariffs — his favoured tool — with elements of secondary sanctions typically used to isolate adversaries financially.

If implemented, the tariffs would ban companies buying Russian oil from accessing the US market for any goods — a move that could hit Russian oil exports hard, especially if major buyers like India or China feel compelled to comply.

“Russia’s most important sector is under much more modest sanctions,” said Edward Fishman, a former State Department sanctions official. “If [Trump] is serious about trying to put pressure on Russia it would be by targeting Russian oil.”

Risks and rewards: economic stakes at home and abroad

Targeting Russian oil would strike at the heart of the Kremlin’s economic engine — oil and gas account for over a third of Russia’s federal budget. But the move comes with risks: it could push up prices at US gas pumps and destabilize energy-dependent economies globally.

The Trump administration may be emboldened by recent oil price trends. Brent crude has dipped to around $70 a barrel, down from earlier highs, potentially giving Washington room to act without triggering immediate spikes in consumer prices.

Still, for such a measure to be effective, it requires international buy-in. “They have to believe the threat is credible,” Fishman said. “There has to be incentive to cooperate.”