US President Donald Trump's foreign policy shift, which aligns more with China and Russia and puts European allies on the sidelines, has created new opportunities for Chinese President Xi Jinping but also poses strategic risks, according to the Financial Times.
A new geopolitics
In a dramatic shift, Russia and China supported a US draft at the United Nations Security Council demanding a "prompt conclusion" of the war in Ukraine without blaming Moscow. France and the UK, which had wanted to postpone the vote, abstained. This is a testament to a huge change in Washington's foreign policy agenda under Trump's second term.
Analysts say that Trump's transactional style of global politics might make him more willing to negotiate with China on trade, export controls, and even Washington's Taiwan policy. But analysts caution that China will still be cautious, fearing that Trump's gestures might be designed to undermine its partnership with Russia.
Strategic concerns for Beijing
Chinese policymakers are concerned that the US may be attempting to play Beijing and Moscow against each other, the Financial Times reports. Some analysts draw parallels with a "reverse Nixon" approach—where the US would pursue a closer relationship with Russia in order to isolate China, echoing Nixon's Cold War-era rapprochement with Beijing.
Russia, on its part, has much to gain from enhanced US relations by lessening its dependence on Chinese economic assistance. While China is now Russia's biggest trading partner following Western sanctions, Moscow had even more trade with the EU before the war. A softening of US-Russia relations could diversify Russia's economic choices.
The limits of US-Russia rapprochement
In spite of Trump's overtures to Russia, analysts are sceptical that the US can cut Moscow's strengthening relations with Beijing. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping have repeatedly reasserted their close alliance. In a recent telephone call, Xi called Russia and China "true friends" who stand together in support.
Considering Trump's volatility and the possibility of future changes in US policy, Beijing will not be able to fully rely on Washington's intentions. According to Financial Times, Chinese officials are aware that any agreement reached with Trump may be undone by a future administration.
Implications for Taiwan and trade
Trump's turn toward Russia may also have implications for US policy in Taiwan. Some experts think that Xi may view the US decision to negotiate directly with Russia over Ukraine—excluding Kyiv from the talks—as a precedent for direct negotiations about Taiwan's future. Others believe that Beijing will reject any implication that Taiwan's status is open to negotiation.
At the same time, a personal relationship between Trump and Xi would set the stage for deals on trade, tariffs, and the sale of Chinese-owned apps such as TikTok's US operation. It has been speculated by some Chinese analysts that Beijing should issue an early invitation to Trump for a public visit before Putin does.
China's opportunity in Europe
As Trump's relationship with European leaders continues to worsen, China can look to deepen its diplomatic and economic relations with the EU. Chinese officials feel that they can take advantage of tensions between Washington and its European allies to enhance China's position in the region, Financial Times reports.
Professor Sergey Radchenko at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies explained that if there is any leader playing a "reverse Nixon" policy, that person is Xi Jinping—propositioning China as a solid world power while the Western bloc fractures.
Trump's newest foreign policy realignment marks the breakdown of the post-World War II liberal order and the emergence of a more multipolar world. Whether or not this change is ultimately to China's benefit is still unclear, but it certainly reconfigures the global balance of power.
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