Two weeks from President Donald Trump’s self-imposed deadline to reach deals with the US’s major trading partners, some of the most-watched talks aimed at clinching agreements to avoid higher tariffs are struggling to get over the finish line.
There’s a lot at stake: As of July 9, exporting nations without a bilateral accord in place will face Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs that are much higher than the current baseline 10% level applied to most countries.
Only the UK has secured something on paper, though that pact kept the 10% so-called reciprocal rate in place and left unresolved one of Britain’s pain points — 25% steel duties. On a separate track is China, which has a fragile truce with the US that extends into mid-August to give time for negotiations to play out.
Countries engaged in what Washington views as productive discussions may get their deadline extended. Court challenges to Trump’s legal authority for tariffs have provided an added element of uncertainty for companies that have spent the past 10 weeks either front-loading orders or hoping his threats of higher import taxes are just a negotiating tactic.
Here’s a rundown of where various talks stand:
European Union
The best-case scenario remains an EU-US agreement on principles that would allow the negotiations to continue beyond the early July deadline, Bloomberg has reported. Trump complained last week about the EU talks, threatening to give up and impose unilateral tariffs. The EU, which has been seeking a mutually beneficial deal, will assess any end-result and at that stage decide what level of asymmetry — if any — it’s willing to accept or whether it will push ahead with countermeasures to correct any imbalances.
India
Trade officials from India and the US are still keen to clinch an interim deal before the deadline, but the two sides appear to be digging in their heels on some key issues, particularly on agricultural goods. The US is seeking access to India’s markets for its genetically modified crops, a request India has denied, while New Delhi wants an exemption to the reciprocal tariffs as well as sectoral duties. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi missed an opportunity to advance the trade deal with Trump when the US leader left the Group of Seven meeting in Canada earlier than planned last week.
Vietnam
Communist Party chief To Lam is set to lead a delegation of officials and business executives to the US, aiming to meet with Trump and clinch additional deals with US firms to help finalize an agreement. The nation has offered to boost purchases of American products from Boeing airplanes to agricultural goods to get a deal. Negotiators are close to a framework agreement under which Vietnam is pushing for tariffs in the range of 20% to 25%, Bloomberg News previously reported.
Japan
US auto tariffs appear to be the key barrier to a deal between Washington and Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s government, which is bracing for talks to drag on. Trump and Ishiba failed to reach an agreement at the Group of Seven leaders’ summit in Canada, despite holding three prior calls to discuss the tariffs. Opposition leader Yoshihiko Noda said after a meeting with Ishiba that the US is most concerned about the auto trade deficit and that no consensus has been reached. Both sides are now trying to schedule the next round of high-level trade talks. The US is set to raise tariffs on Japan to 24%, on top of existing duties of 25% on cars and 50% on steel and aluminum.
South Korea
South Korea has yet to make meaningful progress in trade negotiations. New Trade Minister Yeo Han-koo met with US officials in Washington on June 23, aiming to secure exemptions from tariffs, including those already imposed on cars and steel. This comes after a planned meeting between President Lee Jae Myung, who took office earlier this month, and Trump at the G-7 summit was called off at the last minute as Trump left the event early amid rising tensions in the Middle East. South Korea faces the risk of a 25% tariff, further squeezing its export-dependent industries already strained by the sectoral duties.
Thailand
Thailand, which has been threatened with a 36% tariff, began its delayed talks with the US last week. Permanent Secretary for Commerce Vuttikrai Leewiraphan said last Wednesday that Thailand’s proposals are good and stand a chance to bring down the tariff to the 10% baseline. The official proposal was submitted to Washington last week and detailed negotiations are underway, the finance minister said Tuesday. The US was Thailand’s largest export market last year, accounting for nearly one-fifth of the country’s total outbound shipments.
Malaysia
Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said that Malaysia’s negotiations with the US have been going well after officials met with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick in Washington. Anwar said the imposition of the US tariffs was a “significant challenge” and added that about 60% of semiconductor products from Malaysia was exported to the US alone. Malaysia is seeking to reduce the US tariffs to below 10% for sectors critical to both economies. Both sides have agreed to finalize the talks before the tariff reprieve expires, Malaysia’s trade ministry said this week.
Switzerland
The European nation, also facing among the highest tariff rates of US allies, sketched a compromise around easing market access for some agricultural products, with Economy Minister Guy Parmelin saying he aimed to reach an agreement by early July. Since then, the US Treasury added Switzerland to its list of countries monitored for foreign exchange practices earlier this month. And Trump’s erratic trade policies contributed to the Swiss central bank cutting policy rates by 25 basis points last week after a surge of the franc.
Canada
Targeted with tariffs other than the reciprocal levies, the US’s northern neighbor is seeking to make a deal by mid-July, according to Prime Minister Mark Carney who met Trump on the sidelines of the G-7 meeting. There are still differences between the two nations, according to the US president, who’s complained in the past about undocumented migration and fentanyl issues along the border. Canada is preparing to increase tariffs next month on steel and aluminum — currently at 25% — if talks stall.
Mexico
Mexico and the US were earlier this month nearing a deal that would remove Trump’s 50% tariffs on steel imports up to a certain cap, Bloomberg News reported. President Claudia Sheinbaum expected to meet with Trump soon after their planned encounter was canceled when he departed early from a G-7 summit in Canada. A formal start to the review of the USMCA — the free trade agreement between Canada, US and Mexico — is expected to begin later this year.
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