Maduro’s shrinking circle as Latin America moves away from Venezuela

These setbacks come atop a broader political realignment across the region. Even governments ideologically closer to Venezuela have tightened their distance, especially after Venezuela’s contentious 2024 elections, which Maduro claimed to win despite widespread allegations of fraud.

Countries like Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Colombia have adopted a more cautious posture. Colombian President Gustavo Petro restored full diplomatic relations early in his tenure but has since tempered his stance, acknowledging Venezuela’s governance issues and lack of “democracy and dialogue” even while rejecting US claims linking Maduro to drug trafficking. Argentina’s relationship with Venezuela has collapsed almost entirely in the wake of President Javier Milei’s election, and countries like Ecuador, Bolivia and El Salvador have also swung away from left-wing populist alignments.

The cumulative effect is a continent where Venezuela once counted on ideological solidarity but now faces a fragmented and sceptical neighbourhood.

Few reliable partners remain

If tensions in the Caribbean escalate, Venezuela would have only two consistent regional allies — Cuba and Nicaragua — neither of which offers meaningful strategic support.

Cuba remains Maduro’s closest partner and continues to declare unconditional political backing. Yet Havana is facing one of its deepest economic crises and is in no position to offer military aid. Statements of solidarity from Cuban officials have stopped well short of committing to any defensive response if tensions with Washington worsen.

Nicaragua, under President Daniel Ortega, stays politically aligned with Caracas but has been largely silent during the current standoff. Ortega criticised US naval deployments but has offered no practical support and is preoccupied with his own domestic isolation.

US pressure tests Maduro’s strategy

Meanwhile, the United States has intensified its naval presence under what the Pentagon calls “Operation Southern Spear,” deploying more than a dozen warships and about 15,000 personnel to the region. Trump administration officials held a meeting at the White House on Monday to consider next steps. For Maduro, the timing is difficult: he is more isolated than at any point since taking office in 2013.

Yet the Venezuelan leader has leaned into defiance, telling supporters that the country has survived years of sanctions, blockades and economic pressure. Those familiar with his negotiating style describe him as a disciplined tactician who rarely gives ground unless absolutely necessary. His political survival has been built on absorbing crises rather than fleeing them.

Betting that Washington will step back

Diplomats who have engaged with Maduro say he is counting on one long-standing instinct: that the American public has little appetite for foreign intervention, and that Trump’s political priorities remain focused on domestic issues rather than a prolonged confrontation overseas. For now, Maduro appears to be waiting out the moment, portraying the US naval buildup as an exaggerated threat and positioning himself as the victim of external aggression.

But with two allies lost, a region turning its back, and pressure mounting from Washington, the Venezuelan president enters the end of the year with fewer partners than ever — and a geopolitical landscape increasingly hostile to the Chavista project he inherited more than a decade ago.