Russia is quietly selling advanced military equipment and technology to China in ways that could prepare Beijing for a possible airborne invasion of Taiwan, according to an analysis by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London, as cited by the Associated Press.
The revelations come from around 800 pages of leaked Russian documents obtained by the hacktivist group Black Moon and shared with RUSI researchers. While AP could not independently verify the entire trove, experts say the contracts and equipment lists appear largely genuine, with some details possibly omitted or altered.
What the documents reveal
The files include contracts, technical specifications, and meeting notes between Chinese and Russian delegations. They detail payments, timelines, and deliveries of:
- 37 light amphibious assault vehicles
- 11 amphibious anti-tank self-propelled guns
- 11 airborne armored personnel carriers
- Command and observation vehicles
- High-altitude parachute systems (Dalnolyot)
The deal, valued at more than $210 million, also includes Russian-led training programs in China and complete equipment for an airborne battalion.
One striking element: Beijing requested parachute systems capable of drops from 8,000 meters (26,250 feet), allowing Chinese special forces to glide undetected for up to 80 kilometers (50 miles). Analysts say such systems could be used for “stage zero” infiltration — covert insertions ahead of a Taiwan invasion.
Why it matters for Taiwan
The documents don’t mention Taiwan directly. But RUSI analysts Oleksandr Danylyuk and Jack Watling argue the technology and training would help China fill a critical gap in airborne assault capabilities.
“The Chinese school of airborne landing is very young,” Danylyuk told AP, adding that Moscow’s help could accelerate Beijing’s program by 10 to 15 years.
US intelligence officials, cited by AP, have previously warned that President Xi Jinping has instructed his military to be ready for a Taiwan invasion by 2027. While Beijing insists the island is part of China, it has not ruled out force to achieve unification.
Russia’s motives: money and distraction
For Russia, the deal offers two payoffs:
- Funding the Ukraine war through lucrative arms sales.
- Pulling China deeper into conflict with Washington, potentially distracting the US from Kyiv.
“Moscow may want to draw Beijing into a conflict with Washington over Taiwan,” Danylyuk suggested to AP.
Although China’s military is larger and more modern in several areas, analysts say Russia’s decades of combat experience in parachuting and airborne command systems make it a valuable partner.
A deal rooted in experience and failure
Russia’s airborne forces have a long history but faltered badly in Ukraine. In 2022, Russian paratroopers failed to secure Hostomel airfield near Kyiv, a debacle that dragged Moscow into a grinding war rather than a quick victory.
Still, the Dalnolyot parachute systems, designed for extreme cold conditions (–40°C to –60°C), could give China capabilities Moscow itself never effectively used. The leaked files suggest Beijing demanded tests at high altitudes, hinting at a playbook for surprise insertions over Taiwan.
Beijing’s calculation: learning from Moscow’s scars
While Russia provides know-how, Beijing is customising the equipment to Chinese standards, insisting vehicles use Chinese ammunition and communication systems.
Military commentator Song Zhongping told AP that while China’s hardware is superior, Russia brings battlefield lessons: “Russia has more combat experience… both sides are learning from each other’s strengths to address weaknesses.”
In a broader sense...
The leaks paint a picture of a deepening military bond between Moscow and Beijing, one that could reshape Asia’s security landscape. Even if China hasn’t decided on an invasion, access to Russian technology and training may shorten the timeline.
For Washington and its allies, the message is stark: Russia’s war economy is finding new lifelines, while China quietly builds the tools for a potential Taiwan offensive.
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