Japan braces for shift to right under ‘Iron Lady’ fan Takaichi

Her ascent to the top of the political world will send ripples through the male-dominated society that languishes near the bottom end of global gender equality rankings. But like Thatcher, the former UK prime minister whom she cites as an inspiration, her conservative views place her a long way from the stance of progressive feminism.

Her ability to build a lasting legacy as the nation’s leader will depend less on her ability to further the position of women than on her capacity to restore the fortunes of a ruling party in disarray after decades of dominance in postwar Japan.

“From a normal woman’s perspective, she’s what you might call an idol for ‘old men,’” said Mieko Nakabayashi, politics professor at Waseda University. “She’s someone who expresses ‘old man’ opinions from a woman’s mouth and makes them happy.”

Read: Will Takaichi Be Japan’s Thatcher, or Its Truss?: Gearoid Reidy

Her longevity at the head of a fickle political machine known for quickly axing its presidents will depend on how swiftly she can unite the party, win back public support and connect with those younger voters. Her victory Saturday was powered by widespread grassroots support, with victories in 36 of 47 prefectural chapters, a result that may have convinced LDP lawmakers she holds the key to pulling the party together, Tobias Harris, founder of Japan Foresight, said in a research note Sunday.

Now she’ll need to extend her reach beyond party lines, as the LDP’s lack of a parliamentary majority forces her to build a consensus with opposition parties to pass legislation.

Provided she becomes prime minister as expected, one of her first tasks will be to build ties with Donald Trump amid reports that the US president will make a stop in Japan in late October during a trip to Asia.

Takaichi was the most forthright among the five candidates in the leadership race over the possibility of renegotiating parts of Japan’s trade deal with the US. But she toed the line following her election on Saturday, saying that an immediate renegotiation was not on the table. She still said Japan will make its opinions known through the appropriate routes should the deal not serve its interests.

But she said that might happen only if there are problems implementing the deal in its current form, a comment that suggests she is on board with the agreement for now.

On issues such as ramping up Japan’s defense spending and capabilities, containing China’s growing influence and building supply chains that align with US interests, she is likely to be a good match for Trump’s views. Still, she likely has less name recognition among US conservatives who have met her rival in the leadership contest, Shinjiro Koizumi, and who remember his father Junichiro wearing Elvis shades and serenading former President George W. Bush two decades ago.

“Takaichi has extensive experience as a politician, and since the US’s hardline stance toward China does not significantly conflict with her own views, she should be able to build a good relationship with President Trump,” said Yuichi Kodama, chief economist at Meiji Yasuda Research Institute.

For investors, the main concern will be her reputation for wanting spending to achieve growth and her penchant for central bank stimulus to goose the economy. In the latest leadership campaign, she toned down her scathing views on the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hikes from last year, when she described its raising of rates as “stupid.” But in a recent Kyodo survey she still said the BOJ should leave interest rates unchanged for now. That comment comes amid expectations the bank may raise borrowing costs again later this month.

Her spending plans are less clear. All of the candidates were expected to unleash a package of economic measures to help consumers deal with inflation in the fall, but she was the boldest in saying that extra bond issuance may be needed. In line with many in the LDP, she remains cautious on the idea of opposition demands to lower the sales tax, one of the costliest options for dealing with the cost-of-living crunch.

Instead Takaichi has promised cash handouts and tax rebates to help households. She’s also hinted at raising the tax-free income allowance before the end of the year, a move that would resonate well with the Democratic Party for the People, another populist party that has made major inroads in the last year or two.

While saying her spending plans will be “responsible” and that she’ll ensure the nation’s net debt load will fall over time, she said “the goal is achieving economic growth, not fiscal health,” in a sign of her expansionist spending tendencies.

Goldman Sachs economists Tomohiro Ota, Akira Otani and Yuriko Tanaka wrote in a report Sunday that they don’t expect Takaichi to immediately adopt large-scale fiscal expansion plans, but they don’t rule out the possibility she might do so over time “by deepening cooperation with opposition parties that advocate for a proactive fiscal policy.”

Another focus for investors will be whether the new leader seeks to skew the trajectory for monetary policy.

“While she always leaned toward a reflationary stance, the current economic environment has changed significantly, and curbing inflation has become the country’s mission,” said Meiji Yasuda’s Kodama. “Opposing the BOJ’s rate hikes would be contradictory, so I don’t think she can make extreme statements regarding monetary policy.”

Still, the possible outcome for markets when they open on Monday is a fall in the yen on expectations of slower central bank normalization, a rise in stocks on a weaker currency and an uptick in super-long yields on fears over longer term spending plans.

Takaichi was born on March 3, 1961 and grew up in the ancient capital of Nara, a city known for the emergence of Buddhism in Japan. Her father worked as a salesman at an equipment manufacturing company while her mother worked for the Nara police force. She studied business management at Kobe University.

As a student, she rode a motorbike and played drums in a heavy metal band, and counts herself as a fan of British heavy-metal bands Black Sabbath and Iron Maiden, according to local media. She still occasionally picks up the sticks to hammer away on an electric drumset at home, if she squabbles with her husband, she told a local broadcaster in an interview. Her go-to song is “Burn” by Deep Purple.

“To be honest I wish I could go out for karaoke, but I’ve been reining myself in these past years,” she said in that interview.

She studied at the Matsushita Institute of Government and Management, an organization focused on producing leaders in the world of politics and industry.

She worked briefly as a news anchor before winning her first election in 1993 as an independent at a time when the LDP was in disarray following the bursting of Japan’s economic bubble. That election saw a multitude of opposition parties join forces to form a patchwork administration and oust the LDP for the first time since its formation. But as it has done subsequently, the LDP found a way of regrouping and taking back power, while most of the parties that ousted it have vanished.

Over her years as a politician, including her time as internal affairs minister, promoter of “Cool Japan” and as economic security minister, Takaichi has garnered a reputation as studious with an attention to fine detail. She is known to shun socializing and drinking with her peers.

“If I’m going to go out for dinner or have a drink, I’d much rather work or study something new,” she said during a campaign speech last year, adding that she often works over weekends.

Shortly after winning the LDP election she doubled down on that message.

“I’m going to abandon the phrase ‘work-life balance,’” she said, prompting laughter from the rows of LDP lawmakers listening to her speech. “There is a mountain of things that we must accomplish together and I would like to see you work like horses.”

As a conservative darling and Abe protege, China may be wary of how she navigates a relationship that has remained tense in recent years.

Previously, Takaichi did not mince her words when asked whether she would visit Yasukuni shrine, which honors Japan’s war dead including those who were charged as war criminals after World War II. Visits by previous prime ministers have angered neighboring countries and proven to be a flashpoint for Japan and China.

“Once the sentence is carried out, they are no longer criminals,” she said during a live TV show last week. She toned down her messaging after being elected Saturday, saying that she’ll make appropriate decisions over praying at the shrine.

She opened her campaign speech with a gripe about foreign tourists in Nara, saying she had heard of some tourists kicking the deer that roam freely in the local parks.

That gripe seemed to tap into broader anxieties felt by the public as the number of foreign-born visitors and workers rises amid a drop in Japan’s own population. With Sanseito gaining ground in elections by capturing such concerns under a “Japanese first” message, Takaichi could be the conservative icon the LDP thinks it needs to win back right-wing voters. Among the five candidates, she consistently ranked as the most popular in recent opinion polls among the general public.

In a twist of irony for Japan’s likely first female prime minister, her conservatism may not bode well for gender equality issues.

She opposes same-sex marriage or allowing spouses to have separate surnames, claiming it could undermine family unity. Novelist Kyoko Nakajima once called Takaichi “an honorary man” for maintaining views consistent with a traditional male-centered society, the Japan Times reported in 2021.

And while her appointment breaks a glass ceiling, it also risks becoming a glass cliff.

“Female leaders are often given some leeway for not doing things the ‘traditional’ way,” said Waseda’s Nakabayashi, who was skeptical whether Takaichi’s election represents a new era for women in Japan. “That’s why it’s often the case that women only get the leadership positions when the going gets really tough.”