Islamic State has shifted from a defeated caliphate to a mobile insurgency exploiting Syria’s power vacuum. In northeast Syria, militants staged 117 attacks through the end of August—already far above the 73 recorded in all of 2024—killing Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) troops and sowing fear in towns like Hajin and Diban. The group can’t hold territory, but its violence is deepening the sense of lawlessness, the Wall Street Journal reported.
The trigger: a thinner US footprint
Since April, the US has pulled out roughly 500 of about 2,000 troops, closed or transferred multiple bases to the SDF, and signalled the force could drop below 1,000 in coming months. Washington says the reductions reflect success degrading ISIS, but SDF commanders on the ground say the withdrawal is inspiring militants and complicating rapid coordination that daily US patrols once provided.
How ISIS is adapting
The group now operates in small sleeper cells—four or five men per operation—favouring quick ambushes, roadside bombs, and assassinations. Fighters ride motorcycles, avoid uniforms and flags, and blend into conservative Sunni Arab communities. Extortion has returned: business owners report “zakat” demands, enforced with threats and targeted shootings. The militants are freshly equipped after raids on arms depots during last year’s collapse of the Damascus regime’s forces.
Why Deir Ezzour is the hotspot
Deir Ezzour, a desert province about the size of Maryland, hosts most of the estimated 3,000 ISIS fighters. After Raqqa fell in 2017, remnants regrouped here. Today, SDF units are stretched thin—patrolling vast terrain while guarding prisons and camps that hold thousands of ISIS detainees and families. Local frictions add strain: clashes with Turkey-backed militias, skirmishes with forces linked to Syria’s new government, and mistrust between Arab tribes and Kurdish authorities.
A fragile security architecture
The SDF says senior commanders have been assassinated this year; May was the deadliest month for its troops since 2019. US airpower and intelligence still assist targeted strikes—American forces killed senior ISIS figures in July and August—but day-to-day deterrence has ebbed as visible US patrols recede. Even Damascus concedes a “security gap,” as limited state control lets armed groups move more freely.
The human terrain and competing loyalties
In towns once ruled by ISIS, some residents glare at SDF convoys; others quietly cooperate with militants out of fear. Tribal memories are raw—massacres from 2014 still shape allegiances and vendettas. Reports also accuse the SDF of arbitrary detentions during mass raids, further eroding trust. Without sustained stabilization and credible local governance, ISIS finds space to recruit, tax, and intimidate.
The bottom line
ISIS is not re-creating a state, but it is rebuilding relevance: more attacks, better arms, and a playbook of cheap, deniable violence. Unless local security, governance, and external support improve in tandem, a smaller US footprint and a fragmented Syria will keep giving this insurgency room to breathe.
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