Google is in trouble. The search giant has lost two major antitrust cases in the past year, and federal prosecutors are pressing for drastic remedies. With its core search and ad businesses under threat and its stock sliding, some in Silicon Valley and on Wall Street say it’s time for Google to stop resisting — and start reimagining itself, the New York Times reported.
One provocative idea: break up the company before the courts force it to.
A breakup before it’s broken
The U.S. Department of Justice wants Google to divest its Chrome browser, ad tech network, and possibly Android. But Gil Luria, a tech analyst at D.A. Davidson, thinks Google should go further — not just offload a few units, but dismantle the entire conglomerate.
He argues Google’s parts are worth more than the whole. Its search engine brings in more than half its revenue, but emerging AI tools are threatening its dominance. In April, for the first time ever, Google searches on Apple’s Safari browser declined. Google’s shares are down 9% this year.
Meanwhile, other divisions like Waymo and YouTube remain undervalued. Luria estimates that if all of Google’s businesses were spun off, their combined value could reach $3.7 trillion — nearly double the company’s current market cap. Waymo alone, he says, could be worth as much as Tesla, whose self-driving ambitions are still mostly theoretical.
A bold, Silicon Valley move
Voluntarily breaking up the company would be bold, but not unprecedented. AT&T famously did it in 1984 to avoid further government pressure. More recently, struggling giants like GE and HP have split themselves in hopes of a turnaround.
For Google, such a move could be seen as a redemption arc — an act of accountability in an era of deep suspicion toward Big Tech. It could also reignite the spirit of innovation, say analysts, by freeing teams to build the next transformative product, unencumbered by corporate sprawl.
And politically, it would take the wind out of regulators’ sails. A self-imposed breakup would be applauded by critics who view the company as too powerful and too sprawling.
The Microsoft warning
Those urging caution point to Microsoft’s experience in the 1990s. It fought a bitter antitrust battle and avoided a court-ordered breakup — but its stock went flat for a decade while the tech landscape shifted beneath it.
By the time Microsoft refocused under Satya Nadella in 2014, the cloud and mobile revolutions were already well underway. Google, say observers like Luria, risks repeating that mistake by fighting on too many legal fronts instead of planning for a future beyond search.
Founders still hold the key
Any decision to split the company would ultimately rest with Google’s founders. Thanks to its dual-class share structure, Larry Page and Sergey Brin control the majority of voting rights. So far, they have shown little interest in dismantling the company they built.
Still, those close to Google say the idea can’t be ruled out. “Larry and Sergey like bold, unconventional moves,” said Adam Kovacevich, a former Google policy executive. “Could they decide this would be beneficial to the company? Sure. Any business leader should keep all options on the table.”
For now, Google is taking the familiar path — fighting back in court. But the clock is ticking. A ruling in the DOJ’s search case could come this summer, with the ad tech penalty phase to follow later this year. Unless it wins big in appeals, the company may be forced to shrink.
Breaking up may be inevitable. The only question is whether Google does it on its own terms — or someone else’s.
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