Xi wants Trump in Beijing, but talks stall; summit now ‘a very close call in the history of close calls’

Recent phone calls between Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth with their Chinese counterparts had also raised speculation about a leader-level meeting.

But according to people familiar with the talks, insufficient progress has made a Beijing summit less likely, with Trump and Xi instead expected to meet on the sidelines of Apec.

Fentanyl, tariffs, and trade gridlock

A major sticking point remains fentanyl. Washington has long pressed Beijing to stop the export of precursor chemicals used in illegal opioid production. China, in turn, has linked action on fentanyl to the lifting of Trump-era tariffs on Chinese goods.

The US insists Beijing must first demonstrate real progress before it will consider tariff relief. One person briefed on the talks told Financial Times that this deadlock remains a 'big stumbling block.'

Experts split on summit optics

Sarah Beran, a former senior White House China official, told Financial Times the calls and Madrid meeting were “clear preparations for a leader-level meeting,” but added uncertainty remains over whether that should happen in Beijing or at Apec.

Ryan Hass of Brookings said the “rationale for a Beijing summit is eroding,” especially as Beijing would be reluctant to give Trump greater pomp than it offered to Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un in recent visits.

Others see a Beijing meeting as likely. Dennis Wilder, a former top White House China official, said Trump would “almost certainly prefer a summit in Beijing to counter the recent images of the warm welcome of Putin and Kim.”

Meanwhile, Wendy Cutler of the Asia Society Policy Institute said it was unlikely a full trade deal could be reached in time for Trump to justify a Beijing trip. Instead, she predicted deliverables would be announced at Apec.

Trump’s tariff push and new flashpoints

Adding fuel to the tension, Trump on Saturday urged Nato countries to impose 50–100 percent sanctions on China over its purchases of Russian oil. Days earlier, he called for a 100 percent levy on EU imports from China.

The US also placed several Chinese firms on an export blacklist on Friday, a move critics said was weaker than it appeared but still signalled further decoupling.

In response, Beijing announced an anti-dumping probe into certain US chips, a tit-for-tat move the state-run Global Times linked to Washington’s export controls.

Beijing signals readiness, but conditions linger

Despite the gridlock, Chinese officials have privately suggested they could arrange a Trump-Xi summit in Beijing even at short notice. Former Chinese ambassador Cui Tiankai was in Washington this week trying to improve the chances, according to Financial Times.

Still, one former US official told the paper that as long as parts of Trump’s administration demand a fentanyl package first, the US remains “the obstacle to a visit.”

Evan Medeiros of Georgetown University summed it up: whether Trump will travel to Beijing is “a very close call in the history of close calls,” hinging on a battle between Trump’s desire for “deliverables versus his desire to be feted by the Chinese.”