Following two years of devastating conflict in Gaza, a fragile ceasefire has been reached, brokered by U.S. President Donald Trump. The agreement, which led to the release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, is being hailed as a first step toward long-term peace. Yet, as experts warn, the path to rebuilding Gaza and achieving lasting stability will be challenging.
Immediate outcomes of the ceasefire
The ceasefire was accompanied by Israel’s initial withdrawal from parts of Gaza, leaving the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) in control of approximately 53% of the territory. This represents the first of three stages in the phased withdrawal outlined in Trump’s plan.
A multinational force of roughly 200 troops, overseen by the U.S. military, will monitor the ceasefire. The contingent is reported to include personnel from Egypt, Qatar, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates, though no U.S. troops will be stationed on the ground in Gaza, according to senior officials.
Trump’s plan stipulates that Gaza will be demilitarised, with all “military, terror and offensive infrastructure” destroyed. Hamas, which has governed Gaza since 2007, is expected to play no future role in the territory’s administration. Members of Hamas may be offered amnesty if they commit to peaceful co-existence or safe passage to another country.
Governance: Temporary to transitional
Under the 20-point plan, Gaza will initially be administered by a temporary transitional committee of Palestinian technocrats, operating under a Board of Peace chaired by Trump. Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair is the only other publicly confirmed member of the board, which will set frameworks for governance and monitor redevelopment funding.
In the longer term, governance will be handed over to the Palestinian Authority (PA), which currently administers the West Bank, after it undergoes necessary reforms. The plan emphasises that no Palestinians will be forced to leave Gaza, and those wishing to leave will be free to return.
Elliott Abrams, Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), noted:
“The first stage of this peace plan is the easy part. As world attention turns away when the fighting stops, these intractable issues will be no less difficult to solve than they have been in the past decades.”
Stabilisation: International security force
To ensure a safe transition, an International Stabilization Force (ISF) will be deployed immediately in Gaza. The ISF will oversee security during the transfer of territory from the IDF to civilian control and support vetted Palestinian police forces.
The plan anticipates that Israel will progressively withdraw, while international troops maintain order and prevent the resurgence of militant activity. The overarching aim is for Gaza to become a deradicalised, terror-free zone that poses no threat to its neighbours.
Demilitarisation and oversight
A critical component of the plan is the demilitarisation of Gaza. An independent monitoring group will oversee the destruction of all military infrastructure and manage an internationally funded “buy-back” programme for weapons.
Hamas’ resistance to disarmament is expected to be a major hurdle, as the group has previously refused similar measures. The plan relies on regional partners to guarantee compliance and prevent factions from undermining peace efforts.
Economic recovery and development
Economic reform is another central pillar. A panel of experts will devise a Trump economic development plan to rebuild Gaza and stimulate growth. This will include proposals to create jobs, improve infrastructure, and establish a special economic zone with preferential tariffs and access arrangements.
While the plan does not directly address funding, the World Bank estimates the cost of rebuilding Gaza at over $50 billion. Wealthy Arab states are expected to contribute to reconstruction efforts, contingent on assurances that Gaza will remain peaceful and that a framework for long-term governance is implemented.
Political reforms, governance and interfaith dialogue
Alongside governance and security measures, the Trump-brokered plan proposes interfaith dialogue to foster reconciliation between Israelis and Palestinians. The long-term goal is to shift mindsets, encourage cooperation, and support a pathway to peaceful coexistence.
Donald Trump will chair the Board of Peace, involving international partners including former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, though the precise role of Blair remains partly undefined. On the political horizon, Trump emphasised flexibility:
“A lot of people like the one-state solution. Some people like the two-state solution. We’ll have to see. At some point I’ll decide what I think is right, but I’d be in coordination with other states and other countries.”
What happens next: governance and reconstruction
The immediate next steps, discussed at a peace conference in Egypt with officials from more than two dozen countries, include:
Stabilisation and security: The International Stabilisation Force (ISF) will deploy immediately, training Palestinian police and overseeing the phased withdrawal of the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF). A multinational force of around 200 troops, including personnel from Egypt, Qatar, Turkey, and the UAE, will monitor the ceasefire, while no U.S. ground forces are planned.
Transitional governance: A temporary Palestinian technocratic committee will oversee Gaza under the supervision of the Board of Peace. The Palestinian Authority (PA) will eventually assume governance following internal reforms. Hamas will play no future role in governance, though members may receive amnesty or safe passage if they commit to peaceful coexistence.
Demilitarisation: Weapons and military infrastructure will be permanently removed or bought back, with compliance monitored internationally.
Economic redevelopment: An expert panel will finalise an economic plan to rebuild Gaza, including infrastructure, job creation, and a proposed special economic zone. The World Bank estimates reconstruction costs could exceed $50 billion.
Trump’s plan emphasises that Gaza must be redeveloped for the benefit of its people while remaining secure and free from militant threats. It also aims to establish a political horizon for peaceful coexistence between Israel and Palestinian territories.
Challenges ahead
Experts caution that the ceasefire and peace plan remain fragile. Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, explained:
“The current ceasefire is a welcome and meaningful but fragile pause. Whether it fully collapses or serves as a launching pad for progress depends on President Trump and the other actors he’s coordinating with staying engaged.”
Key challenges include:
Hamas disarmament: Resistance from entrenched militant factions is expected.
Political complexities: Netanyahu has not formally declared the war over, and hardline coalition partners may resist full implementation.
Governance and reform: The PA must complete reforms to take over Gaza effectively.
Funding and reconstruction: Securing international financial support is crucial and conditional on sustainable peace.
Psychological and social rehabilitation: Tens of thousands of Palestinians remain displaced amid widespread trauma and infrastructure destruction.
Historical context
Efforts to broker peace between Israel and Palestine have historically struggled. From the 1991 Madrid Conference to the Oslo Accords of 1993 and 1995, attempts at long-term resolution repeatedly collapsed, with previous ceasefires offering only temporary pauses and limited exchanges of hostages or prisoners.
Trump’s plan is notable for combining security, governance, economic, and political measures under a single framework, with a clear role for the United States in oversight and mediation.
Looking forward
The immediate priority is compliance with the ceasefire and supporting Gaza’s transition from war to stability. Success will require sustained international engagement, close monitoring of security and governance, and careful management of economic reconstruction.
The long-term vision includes:
A demilitarised Gaza Strip, free from militant threats.
Transition of governance to a reformed Palestinian Authority.
Economic recovery through international investment and job creation.
Interfaith dialogue and reconciliation between Israelis and Palestinians.
Experts agree that while the first phase is tangible, the hardest work lies ahead. Robert Wood, former Deputy U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, warned:
“The administration needs to stay engaged, particularly at the highest levels, if this has a chance of working. It’s a good day, but the war isn’t over yet.”
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