Why Cuba is hit so often
Cuba stretches ~1,250 km across the northern Caribbean—right where Atlantic systems curve west and then recurve north. Its size makes it a big “target,” and storms can approach from multiple directions (Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico or the Atlantic). That geography alone raises the odds of landfalls compared with smaller islands nearby, the New York Times reported.
Mountains that amplify rain
Eastern Cuba is rugged. As moist, hurricane-driven air slams into the Sierra Maestra, it’s forced upward, squeezing out intense rainfall. That orographic lift turns a wind threat into a flood and landslide threat—particularly in river valleys, on unstable slopes, and where drainage is poor.
A long record of major landfalls
In the past 25 years alone, ten major hurricanes (Category 3+) have struck Cuba—far more than neighbouring Jamaica has seen over the same span. Landmark events include Category 5 strikes historically (e.g., 1924; the Great Havana Hurricane of 1846, likely Cat 5 by modern reanalysis) and modern high-end hits like Irma (2017) along the north coast, as well as Matthew (2016). Even within a single year, back-to-back majors are possible (Gustav and Ike in 2008).
Where Melissa fits
After crossing Jamaica at peak strength, Melissa is tracking toward southeastern Cuba slightly weaker but still dangerous. Expect the classic eastern-Cuba impact profile: damaging winds, 10–20 inches of rain in many locations (locally higher), flash floods and landslides, and life-threatening storm surge on exposed southeast coasts. Transport shutdowns and power disruptions are likely given pre-existing grid fragility.
What “Category” doesn’t tell you
The Saffir–Simpson category is based on wind, not water. Category can tick down as a storm encounters land or shear, yet rainfall and surge can peak because of track, coastal shape, and topography. In eastern Cuba’s mountains, a Category 3 can produce catastrophic flooding—sometimes worse than a stronger but faster-moving storm.
Preparing for impact: The priorities
• Evacuate low-lying and landslide-prone areas early. Water kills more than wind.
• Protect power-dependent needs. Charge devices, stock batteries, and secure backup for medical equipment.
• Document and secure. Photograph property, move valuables above potential flood lines, and anchor tanks/loose items.
• After the eye: don’t venture out until authorities give the all-clear; the back side of the storm can bring a sudden wind shift and renewed squalls.
• Avoid floodwaters. They can conceal live wires, sharp debris, and fast currents; surge recedes unpredictably.
The bigger climate context
Warmer oceans load storms with more latent heat and moisture, increasing odds of rapid intensification and extreme rainfall. Even when seasonal totals aren’t record-breaking, single storms can become unusually wet and slow-moving—raising flood risk for mountainous islands like Cuba.
Bottom line
Cuba’s position and terrain make it hurricane-exposed year after year. Melissa’s slightly lower category on approach doesn’t reduce the risk from rainfall, floods and landslides—especially in the southeast. Understanding the island’s geography and storm history clarifies the real threat: water, not just wind. orm surge
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