All eyes on July 6 as Dalai Lama turns 90: How his successor will be chosen and why it matters to China

In Tibetan Buddhist belief, a Dalai Lama is the reincarnation of a long line of enlightened beings who have chosen to be reborn to serve humanity. The process for identifying his successor is complex and deeply spiritual.

After a Dalai Lama passes away, senior lamas and monks look for spiritual signs (visions, dreams, unusual phenomena) to guide them to the location of the new reincarnation. Monks are dispatched across Tibet (and sometimes beyond) to find young children born around the time of the previous Dalai Lama’s death, believed to show signs of being the reincarnation.

Promising candidates are given objects to identify, including items belonging to the previous Dalai Lama. If a child picks the correct ones and displays exceptional insight, they are believed to be the true reincarnation. The child is then trained in Buddhist philosophy and gradually takes on the religious role, culminating in enthronement as the new Dalai Lama.

This was how the 14th Dalai Lama, born Lhamo Dhondup, was identified at age two. When he recognised the late 13th Dalai Lama’s belongings, saying “It’s mine, it’s mine,” the monks were convinced.

Who gets to decide? Dalai Lama vs China

The 14th Dalai Lama has made it clear: he, and not the Chinese state, will decide how and where his reincarnation takes place. In recent years, he has issued the following positions:

He may choose not to reincarnate at all, if he believes the institution has served its purpose.

If he does reincarnate, it will likely be outside China, in a free country — most likely India, where he has lived in exile since fleeing Chinese persecution in 1959.

Any child declared a reincarnation under Chinese authority will be considered illegitimate by the Tibetan Buddhist community in exile.

“It is inappropriate for Chinese Communists, who reject religion, to meddle in the system of reincarnation of lamas,” he has said.

The Gaden Phodrang Foundation, set up by the Dalai Lama in 2015, is expected to oversee the succession process along with senior monks and spiritual aides in exile. The Tibetan parliament-in-exile in Dharamshala also claims a framework is in place to ensure a legitimate succession that reflects Tibetan religious traditions.

China’s position and the Golden Urn

The Chinese government insists it holds the legal authority to approve the next Dalai Lama, citing historical precedents from the Qing Dynasty, including the use of the Golden Urn ritual – a lottery-based system introduced in 1793 to approve reincarnations.

Under Chinese law, all reincarnations of Tibetan Buddhist leaders must be approved by the state; any future Dalai Lama must be born within Chinese borders; and Beijing has even warned that non-recognition of its appointed successor will be considered a violation of Chinese sovereignty.

However, critics argue this is a thinly veiled attempt to control Tibetan Buddhism and stamp out any form of cultural resistance within Tibet.

Why China is watching closely

Beijing is deeply concerned about losing influence over the next generation of Tibetan leadership. A reincarnation found outside of China – particularly in India – would not only challenge Beijing’s legitimacy but also expose its limited control over Tibetan spiritual affairs.

The Dalai Lama's presence in India gives New Delhi leverage in its dealings with Beijing. Over 100,000 Tibetan exiles live in India, where the Dalai Lama enjoys freedom of movement and access to global media.

The United States and other Western democracies have sided with the Tibetan leadership, repeatedly stating they will not recognize any Dalai Lama chosen under Chinese control.