No Lionel Messi. No Cristiano Ronaldo. When the Ballon d'Or is presented at a gala ceremony in Paris on Monday, it will feel like the start of a new era in soccer. There is also a sense of void now that one of sport's most engrossing rivalries is likely over. “It’s interesting that as it starts to come to an end, we are sort of saying, what’s the next equivalent rivalry going to be," soccer author Jonathan Wilson told The Associated Press. "As if that kind of rivalry was a natural state. But there’s never been a rivalry like that before.”
Messi and Ronaldo won soccer’s most prestigious individual award a combined 13 times over a 16-year period of unprecedented dominance. Neither has been nominated this year. Instead, Real Madrid winger Vinicius Junior is the favorite to be crowned the world's best player and become the first winner born this century. He underlined his credentials this week with a stunning Champions League hat trick against Borussia Dortmund.
“Vinicius had an incredible season where he was a key player... he proved he’s the best player in the world,” Madrid teammate Lucas Vazquez said.
But rather than Vinicius spearheading a new era of dominance, it seems likely the award will revert to a time before Messi and Ronaldo when multiple winners were relatively rare.
France great Zinedine Zidane, for instance, only won it once. The same goes for Ronaldinho, Rivaldo, Luis Figo and George Best. Originally limited to European players, it was never won by Pele or Diego Maradona.
Before Messi, the last player to win back-to-back awards was Dutch striker Marco van Basten in 1988 and '89.
Messi won a record-extending eighth Ballon d'Or last year after leading Argentina to triumph at the World Cup in 2022. Wilson, who wrote about the history of Argentinian soccer in his book “Angels With Dirty Faces,” sees no obvious successor to the Barcelona great, now at Inter Miami.
“Messi’s been phenomenal for 17, 18 years,” he said. "It’s not a pure tallying process, but in terms of greatness over a protracted period, Messi is the greatest there has ever been by quite some margin.
“I don’t think there’s anybody in the world now who has anything remotely close to that talent."
Such was the dominance of Messi and Ronaldo, not only would Vinicius Junior become the first winner born this century, but there has never even been a recipient born in the '90s.
Vinicius Junior, whose goals helped Madrid to a record-extending 15th European Cup last season, is part of a new generation of stars that are flourishing as Messi and Ronaldo reach the final stages of their careers.
Kylian Mbappe, Erling Haaland, Jude Bellingham and Lamine Yamal make up a field of contenders who could challenge for years to come.
Manchester City midfielder Rodri is second favorite to win this year and would become the first player born in the '90s to take the award.
Mbappe, who has long-been seen as the heir to Messi and Ronaldo as the world’s best player, was born in 1998, meaning it’s likely there will eventually be a winner from that decade even if Rodri misses out.
The only other winners since Ronaldo won his first Ballon d'Or in 2008 were Luka Modric in 2018 and Karim Benzema in 2022. Both were born in the 1980s.
The award was cancelled in 2020, when Robert Lewandowski was widely regarded the best player that year. He was also born in the '80s.
Neymar, born in 1992, came third on two occasions.
The Ballon d’Or was created by France Football magazine and has been awarded since 1956. It is voted for by journalists from the top 100 countries in the FIFA rankings.
Each journalist, one per country, selects 10 players in ranked order, with points attributed to each position. The winner is the player who receives the most points.
The dominance of Messi and Ronaldo in the age of social media, has heightened the profile of the award.
Players talk of their dream to win it in a manner they may have spoken about the Champions League and World Cup in the past.
The potential to win it is used during transfer negotiations, with clauses added to contracts stipulating a buying club will pay extra costs if a player goes on to be crowned the best player in the world.
While Vinicius appears to be in pole position this year, Mbappe vs. Haaland has the potential to develop into a new rivalry for the award — particularly given they are strikers for Madrid and Manchester City, respectively, the two best teams in Europe in recent years.
“That whole idea of rivalries and sort of head-to-head, one-v-ones is just such a big part of football now,” soccer author Matt Oldfield told The Associated Press. “People want to be able to simplify it to one-v-one, and I think the Mbappe-Haaland debate will be the leading one.”
Oldfield writes children's books about soccer and on visits to schools he gauges the popularity of players among young fans.
His latest series is called “The Football GOAT (greatest of all time)."
The first book in the series centered around Messi and Ronaldo. The next is about Mbappe and Haaland: “We’re kind of moving beyond Messi and Ronaldo now,” he said.
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