Chocolate lovers are facing sticker shock this Valentine’s Day as cocoa prices have surged to record highs. The price of cocoa futures has jumped 86% from last year, reaching $10,538 per metric ton, a level more than three times the historical average, according to The Wall Street Journal.
Cocoa supply crisis driving up costs
The primary driver behind the price surge is a supply shortage in West Africa, which produces 70% of the world’s cocoa. Bad weather conditions, plant diseases, and ageing cacao trees have significantly reduced yields. Additionally, new EU deforestation laws and low grower returns have limited the planting of new cacao groves, making a quick supply recovery unlikely, The Wall Street Journal reports.
“The price of a ton of cocoa butter is practically the price of a small car,” said Judy Ganes, an agricultural commodities analyst. She noted that while analysts had hoped for improved output in 2025, a string of dry months has dashed those expectations, setting the industry up for a fourth consecutive year of supply shortages.
How chocolate companies are responding
The supply strain has hit major chocolate manufacturers hard. Companies like Hershey and Mondelez International are struggling to balance rising costs with keeping their products affordable. Hershey, for instance, has opted to absorb some of the financial hit rather than passing the full cost onto consumers. Mondelez CEO Dirk Van de Put stated that keeping prices stable is crucial to maintaining demand, even as costs remain high.
Smaller chocolatiers have had no choice but to raise prices or find alternative revenue streams. Roni-Sue’s Chocolates, a small New York City shop, increased prices for the first time in years but managed to stabilize sales by offering chocolate-making classes. “People aren’t balking at it,” owner Rhonda Kave said. “It was necessary.”
Why cocoa prices won’t drop soon
Unlike other crops where farmers can respond to weak harvests by planting more the next season, cacao trees take years to mature. Furthermore, the spread of the cacao swollen-shoot virus, which causes root necrosis, has killed many trees in West Africa. With production slow to expand outside Africa, global supply issues remain unresolved.
The consumer impact: higher prices and shifting habits
As chocolate prices climb, consumers are adjusting their habits. Many are opting for smaller quantities of premium chocolate or switching to alternative gifts like flowers. “They might go back to the expensive roses,” Ganes said, noting that demand for large chocolate boxes may decline.
While companies are exploring solutions, such as expanding cocoa production in other regions, analysts warn that meaningful supply relief is still years away. Until then, chocolate lovers should brace for continued price hikes, The Wall Street Journal concludes.
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