What is Russia’s Wagner Group and why is it accused of mutiny?

Founded by Prigozhin in 2014, Wagner at its peak had about 50,000 mercenary recruits — many of them ex-prisoners — fighting in Ukraine. The US designated the group as a transnational criminal organization earlier this year, and Wagner has been sanctioned by Australia, Canada, Japan, the UK and the European Union. The group has operated for years on battlefields in the Middle East, Africa and Latin America, where it’s been accused of committing widespread human rights abuses.

Wagner has murky legal status, and mercenaries are technically illegal in Russia. The group operates independently of the nation’s official armed forces, and recently rebuffed Moscow’s demands that its recruits sign formal contracts with the military.

Who is Prigozhin and what’s his relationship to Putin?

Yevgeny Prigozhin, 62, is a Russian businessman and ex-convict who’s been called “Putin’s chef” due to his catering companies’ contracts with Kremlin and longstanding ties with the president. American authorities have said he controlled a troll farm known as the Internet Research Agency to interfere in 2016 US presidential election. In 2022, Prigozhin confirmed he created Wagner after years of denying any connection to the group.

Long considered one of Putin’s right-hand men, Prigozhin has grown increasingly acrimonious toward the Russian president’s military leadership amid mounting deaths of Wagner recruits. Prigozhin for months accused the defense ministry of failing to adequately support his forces, often in provocative videos published on social media. In May, he threatened to pull his troops out of the operation if they didn’t get supplies - particularly ammunition - but later backed down.

Why is Wagner involved in Putin’s invasion?

Putin has appreciated Wagner’s help. As recently as this month, the president acknowledged that Russian forces fighting in Ukraine lack sufficient advanced weapons despite a tripling of arms output. Russia has suffered heavy losses of personnel, many of whom are barely trained and often poorly armed, although exact casualty numbers for the 16-month-long are unclear. Wagner’s forces have been instrumental in Russia’s ground offensive; the group in May took control of the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut after more than 220 days of fighting.

What is Wagner’s next move?

Late Friday Prigozhin accused Russia’s defense ministry of a missile attack on a camp of Wagner personnel. In an audio message posted later, Prigozhin said that 25,000 of his men were ready to “end this mess” and fight with the army if they face resistance. The mercenary chief said he and his fighters had entered Rostov-on-Don, a city in southern Russian near the border with Ukraine and a strategic military command base. The reports have not been independently verified.

How has Russia responded?

The Russian Defense Ministry denied its forces attacked Wagner forces. Prosecutors quickly opened a criminal probe into the mercenary chief under the laws banning “armed mutiny,” and the Federal Security Service said it was seeking to detain him, while appealing to his troops not to obey “criminal orders.”

What is the response from abroad?

So far, watching and waiting. A spokesman for the European Union said the matter was “an internal Russian issue” that’s being carefully monitored. US President Joe Biden has been briefed on the situation while the top two members of the Senate Intelligence said, “we are closely monitoring what appears to be a significant internal conflict among Russian forces.” Ukraine’s president hasn’t commented so far.

What does this mean for Putin?

The feud has been extremely politically damaging to Putin’s regime, said Matthew Sussex, adjunct associate professor at Griffith University in Australia. That’s likely to have a negative impact on the war effort, which has relied on propaganda to boost support for the invasion. “It will be crippling to the morale of the Russian armed forces and it will be crippling to the morale of Wagner,” he said, adding that if Prigozhin fails in any potential march on Moscow, “there will be enormous purges in the Russian military against those who are suspected of being sympathetic.” The UK defense ministry said the fast-evolving crisis “represents the most significant challenge to the Russian state in recent times.”