SoftBank Group Corp.’s Vision Fund is likely to return to profitability after five quarters of losses, thanks to an artificial-intelligence-fueled rebound that’s lifting startup valuations.
The Japanese conglomerate is fighting to regain its footing after losing ¥6.9 trillion ($48 billion) at the Vision Fund investment unit in the last two fiscal years. Analysts expect a modest profit at the fund for the three months ended June, while SoftBank as a whole will likely report a profit of around ¥73 billion on Tuesday, according to the average of analyst estimates.
Whether SoftBank founder Masayoshi Son will now be able to go on the offensive and hunt for new deals hinges on the initial public offering of Arm Ltd. His chip designer is seeking to raise as much as $10 billion in a market debut as soon as September, at a valuation of between $60 billion and $70 billion. At the high end of its fundraising target, Arm would be the largest tech debut on record after Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Meta Platforms Inc.
Obsession over artificial intelligence has sparked a surge in the valuations of Arm’s peers. Nvidia Corp.’s value crossed the $1 trillion threshold this year, while the Nasdaq 100, a proxy for tech stocks, recorded its best ever January-June performance this year.
SoftBank gives investors a way to invest in Arm as an AI play prior to its listing, said Kirk Boodry, an analyst at Astris Advisory. “A further run once a public prospectus comes out would not be surprising at all,” he said.
The Vision Fund’s public holdings were up about $1.1 billion in the June quarter, Boodry estimates. DoorDash Inc. and Grab Holdings Ltd. were among the biggest contributors, rallying 20% and 14% respectively during the period. Coupang Inc. advanced 9%. SoftBank’s own shares soared 31% during the same period, marking its best such performance in three years.
In July alone, the unit’s public portfolio rose $3.9 billion in value, with DoorDash, Grab and China’s Didi Global Inc. all rallying. If SoftBank can sustain that pace for the rest of the quarter, the Vision Fund would book its strongest performance on an aggregate basis since January-March 2021, he said.
“I’m not convinced we are completely out of the woods yet,” as July’s gains may turn out to be ephemeral while “tech seems priced for perfection (again),” Boodry said. Still, the bounce is “worth highlighting,” and Arm’s upside should provide support even if the Vision Fund looks weak, he said.
SoftBank’s first Vision Fund launched in 2017 with backing from the sovereign wealth funds of Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi, as well as investments from companies including Apple Inc., Foxconn Technology Group and Qualcomm Inc. But the fund and a second one have struggled with losses on their startup bets, with the Vision Fund segment reporting a record loss of ¥4.3 trillion ($30 billion) in the year to March.
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