U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin have agreed in principle to a summit over Ukraine, the office of French President Emmanuel Macron said, provided Russia does not invade its neighbor. In a statement released early Monday, the Elysee Palace said Macron had pitched both leaders on a summit over "security and strategic stability in Europe."
"Presidents Biden and Putin have both accepted the principle of such a summit," the statement said, before adding that such a meeting would be impossible if Russia invaded Ukraine as Western nations fear it plans to. The White House did not immediately return a message seeking comment. The announcement - released after a volley of phone calls between Macron and leaders on both sides of the Atlantic - comes after a week of heightened tensions spurred by Russia's military buildup up and down the Ukrainian border.
Nerves were further frayed after the Belarusian defence ministry announced that Russia would extend military drills in Belarus that were due to end on Sunday. Satellite images appeared to show new deployments of Russian armor and troops close to Ukraine. The White House said Biden was canceling a trip to Delaware and remaining in Washington following a two-hour meeting of his National Security Council.
U.S.-based satellite imagery company Maxar reported multiple new deployments of Russian military units in forests, farms, and industrial areas as little as 15 km (9 miles) from the border with Ukraine - something Maxar said represented a change from what had been seen in recent weeks.
"Until recently, most of the deployments had been seen primarily positioned at or near existing military garrisons and training areas," the company said. Blinken told CNN "everything we are seeing suggests that this is dead serious," adding the West was equally prepared if Moscow invades. "Until the tanks are actually rolling, and the planes are flying, we will use every opportunity and every minute we have to see if diplomacy can still dissuade President Putin from carrying this forward."
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World stocks hit 3-week lows, oil rises on Russia-Ukraine fears
European stocks dropped 1.65% to their lowest in more than four months. British stocks fell 0.5%. Shares in companies exposed to Russia and Ukraine fell heavily.... Read More
Russia-Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | Ukraine says skies safe as some airlines suspend flights
Ukraine said on Monday about 10 airlines had stopped flying there amid U.S. warnings of an attack by Russian forces massed on its border, but insisted its air corridors were still open and flying to the East European country was safe.
Germany's Lufthansa said it was halting flights to Ukraine from Monday, joining KLM which has already done so. Scandinavian airline SAS also suspended weekly flights while Air France has decided to cancel Tuesday flights between Paris and Kyiv as a "precautionary measure".
"The current cancellation of flights by a number of foreign airlines is dictated solely by the information aggravation of the situation, and not by real changes in flight safety," Infrastructure Minister Oleksander Kubrakov told a news briefing. (Reuters)
Election News 2022 LIVE Updates | Ukraine requests urgent UN Security Council talks on de-escalating crisis
Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on Monday he had asked member states of the U.N. Security Council to hold urgent discussions on practical steps to guarantee his country's security and on de-escalating the tensions with Russia.
Russia is a permanent veto-wielding member of the U.N. Security Council. Russia's President Vladimir Putin said earlier on Monday that he would make a decision on recognising two breakaway regions in East Ukraine later on Monday. (Reuters)
Russia-Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | World stocks hit 3-week lows, oil rises on Russia-Ukraine fears
Global stocks hit three-week lows and oil rose on Monday as worries increased that Russia will invade Ukraine. Russian forces killed a group of five saboteurs who breached the country's southwest border from Ukraine on Monday, news agencies quoted the military as saying, an accusation that Kyiv dismissed as the latest in a series of fakes.
Kyiv and the West fear that a border incident near eastern Ukraine could be used as a pretext for Moscow to attack its neighbour. Russia denies such plans. Markets are on high alert for any escalation in the crisis.
MSCI's world equity index fell 0.4% to 700.11, with Monday's public holiday in the United States, which will keep Wall Street closed, thinning trade and adding to the volatility. S&P 500 stock futures fell 0.66%. Nasdaq futures dropped 1.2%.
European stocks dropped 1.65% to their lowest in more than four months. British stocks fell 0.5%. Shares in companies exposed to Russia and Ukraine fell heavily. U.S. stock futures and European stocks lost earlier gains made on news that U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin had agreed in principle to hold a summit on the Ukraine crisis.
Reuters
Russia-Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | Putin says Macron told him Ukraine leadership is ready to implement Minsk peace deal
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday said his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron had told him Ukraine's leadership was ready to implement the Minsk peace process and was working on fresh ideas to hold elections in two breakaway regions.
In televised remarks, Putin was responding to an assessment from his special envoy on Ukraine, Dmitry Kozak, who said he believed Kyiv would never implement the peace agreements as things stand. (Reuters)
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | Vladimir Putin says recognition of breakaway Ukraine regions needs to be considered
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday told his security council it was necessary to consider an appeal from the leaders of two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine for Russia to recognise them as independent.Putin said in televised remarks that the threat to Russia would substantially increase if Ukraine were to join NATO.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | East Ukraine rebel republics ask Putin to recognise their independence
The rebel leaders of east Ukraine's two self-proclaimed republics asked Russian President Vladimir Putin to recognise the independence of their breakaway territories in a coordinated appeal on Monday."I ask you to recognise the sovereignty and independence of the Lugansk People's Republic," separatist Leonid Pasechnik said in a video aired on Russian state television. Denis Pushilin, the rebel head of the Donetsk People's Republic, made a similar appeal.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | Ukraine denies its 'saboteurs' crossed into Russia
Ukraine on Monday firmly denied Russian claims that Russian forces had killed five Ukrainian "saboteurs" who allegedly crossed the border to stage an attack, heightening fears of an all-out war."Not a single one of our soldiers has crossed the border with the Russian Federation, and not a single one has been killed today," Anton Gerashchenko, an official at Ukraine's interior ministry, told reporters.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | Russian stocks fall around 10% on Ukraine tensions
Russian stocks fell around 10 percent on Monday as the Ukraine crisis escalated sharply, with Moscow announcing it had killed Ukrainian "saboteurs" on its territory and dampened hopes for a summit with Washington.At the Moscow Stock Exchange, the dollar-denominated RTS index was down 10.4 percent at around 1130 GMT and the IMoex (in rubles) fell 8 percent.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | Russian army says killed 5 'saboteurs' from Ukraine on Russian territory
The Russian military said Monday that it had killed five "saboteurs" who crossed from Ukrainian territory, the latest claim fuelling tensions along Moscow's border with Ukraine."As a result of clashes, five people who violated the Russian border from a group of saboteurs were killed," the military said in a statement, adding the incident occurred near the village of Mityakinskaya in the Rostov region at 06:00 am (0300 GMT).
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | Nickel prices soar on Russia tension, tight supply
Nickel surged Monday to the highest price in more than 10 years, driven by simmering Ukraine-Russia tensions and tight supplies.The industrial metal forged $24,610 per tonne -- the highest level since 2011 -- in late morning deals on the London Metal Exchange. Marex broker Al Munro said nickel was "benefitting from the threat to Russian production" in an already tight market with demand up as economies reopen from pandemic lockdowns.The price of the industrial metal, a key raw material in the manufacturing of stainless steel, has soared by nearly 20 percent since the start of the year."The Ukraine crisis continues to hang over metals prices," said Commerzbank analyst Daniel Briesemann.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | EU agrees 'in principle' to military instructor mission: Ukraine
Ukraine's foreign minister on Monday said the European Union had agreed "in principle" to set up an advisory military instructor mission in Ukraine, but the details have yet to be thrashed out. The announcement comes as the West warns Russia could be gearing up to invade Ukraine after massing an estimated 150,000 troops at its border."We reached an agreement with the EU in principle that the European Union will roll out an advisory training military mission in Ukraine. These are not combat forces," Dmytro Kuleba told journalists after meeting EU counterparts in Brussels."The details, the main parameters and the timeline of this rollout are still to be discussed, but it's critical that we open this new page in our relations."EU diplomats said the ministers' meeting in Brussels was expected to give the green light for the bloc's foreign policy chief Josep Borrell to put forward a formal proposal for the mission.Diplomats said the mission would likely begin as classroom-based courses to help improve Ukrainian officers. It is expected to take at least six months to be set up, and it is not yet clear if EU military or civilian personnel would be involved.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | Russian stocks slide over Ukraine crisis
Russian stock indexes fell Monday as the Ukraine crisis rapidly deteriorated, with the Kremlin dampening hopes for a summit between Russian leader Vladimir Putin and US President Joe Biden. The dollar-denominated RTS index was down 8.5 percent at 1200 GMT, and has fallen nearly 19 percent since the start of the year. The Russian currency also slid, with the US dollar being exchanged for 78 rubles and the euro for almost 89 rubles.Russian stock markets have taken several hits in recent months as investors assess the latest twists of the crisis.The Kremlin warned Monday there were no concrete plans for a summit between the Russian and US leaders.The idea of a Putin-Biden meeting has been championed by France and cautiously welcomed by Ukraine as a way to avert a catastrophic war in Europe. Fighting between the Ukrainian army and pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine has intensified in recent days. The US accuses Russia of massing up to 150,000 troops near Ukraine's borders, saying Moscow is looking for a pretext to launch an attack on its pro-Western neighbour.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | Ukraine warns of cyberattacks on banks and state agencies
Ukrainian authorities said they had seen online warnings that hackers were preparing to launch major attacks on government agencies, banks and the defence sector on Tuesday. Ukraine has suffered a string of cyberattacks in recent weeks which Kyiv has blamed on Russia. Moscow, which is caught up in a mounting confrontation with the West over Ukraine, has denied any involvement. Ukraine's government-run cybersecurity agency CERT-UA said on Monday it had found warnings on a hacking forum. One message had "referred to the lease of servers to prepare new attacks on the websites of the public sector, the banking sector and the defence sector," it said. Ukraine said last week Russia was likely behind an attack which downed the web portal of the defence ministry and disrupted banking and terminal services at large state-owned lenders. The online attacks and warnings of more come as Western countries accuse Russia of planning an invasion of neighbouring Ukraine. Moscow denies planning any attack but has demanded security guarantees including a promise that Ukraine would never join NATO. Ukraine has previously accused Russia of launching cyberattacks to sow panic and crash its financial system.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | Joe Biden asked Macron to make offer of Putin-Biden summit to Putin: French official
U.S. President Joe Biden had asked French President Emmanuel Macron to make the offer of a summit between Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin to Putin, said an official from the French Presidency. "We're slowly changing the course of things. We're creating a diplomatic perspective the Kremlin accepts," said the French presidential adviser. "He is a facilitator," added the French presidential adviser, commenting on Macron's role. Earlier, Macron's office said Biden and Putin had agreed in principle to a summit over Ukraine, offering a possible path out of one of the most dangerous European crises in decades. The Kremlin said Putin and Biden could set up a call or meeting any time but there were no concrete plans yet for a summit.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | Ukraine: Airlines adjusting flight schedules amid standoff with Russia
Ukraine's infrastructure minister said on Monday that about 10 airlines had adjusted their scheduled flights to Ukraine amid tensions with Russia but said its air corridors were still open and flying to the East European country remained safe. Germany's Lufthansa said it was halting flights to Ukraine from Monday, joining KLM which already suspended flights. Scandinavian airline SAS also suspended weekly flights while Air France has decided to cancel its Tuesday flights between Paris and Kyiv as a "precautionary measure" on the back of rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine. "The current cancellation of flights by a number of foreign airlines is dictated solely by the information aggravation of the situation, and not by real changes in flight safety," Oleksander Kubrakov told a news briefing. He did not name the airlines and said that "the state is working to replace cancelled flights". Kubrakov said Ukraine International Airlines (UIA) had already opened ticket sales and increased the capacity of aircraft on additional flights from Kyiv to Munich and Geneva which Lufthansa was unable to operate. Two Ukrainian airlines last week disclosed problems in securing insurance for some of their flights while foreign carriers began avoiding the country's airspace as Russia masses a huge military force on its border. UIA said it had received the notification from its insurers as experts said more airlines were expected to avoid Ukraine's airspace after a U.S. warning that Moscow could invade its neighbour any time. Russia and Ukraine both hinted at fresh diplomatic efforts to avoid conflict on Monday, but Ukraine's biggest airline said its insurers had already terminated cover for at least some of its aircraft on flights inside Ukrainian airspace.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | Germany warns of "extremely dangerous situation" in Ukraine crisis
The intensifying conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to an "extremely dangerous situation," a German government spokesperson said on Monday.Sanctions against Russia would be put in place after further territorial infringements of Ukraine, the spokesperson said, adding that Western partners would decide what would qualify as territorial infringement.German Chancellor OlafScholzwill speak with Russian President Vladimir Putin by phone on Monday afternoon, the spokesperson told a regular government news conference in Berlin.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | Olaf Scholz to hold telephone talks Vladamir Putin on Monday
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will speak with Russian President Vladimir Putin by telephone later Monday in a further effort to ease tensions over Ukraine, the German government spokesman said.Steffen Hebestreit said the planned call "this afternoon" had been "closely coordinated" with French President Emmanuel Macron, who spoke to Putin on Sunday.He said the talks were part of "joint diplomatic efforts" by the West to "prevent a catastrophe" in Ukraine.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | Ukraine denies shelling Russian border facility
The Ukrainian military on Monday denied shelling a border facility used by Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB), calling Moscow's claim "fake news"."We couldn't stop them producing this fake news, but we alwaysemphasisethat we do not shoot at civilian infrastructure, or into some territory in the Rostov region or whatever," Ukrainian military spokesmanPavloKovalchuktold reporters.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | Ukraine crisis: Efforts underway, arrangements made to get students back, says Madhya Pradesh minister
Madhya Pradesh Home Minister Narottam Mishra on Monday said the government was concerned about students from the state stranded in Ukraine, which is under the threat of an attack from neighbouring Russia.Queried on 60 students from Indore who are stuck in Ukraine amid war fears, Mishra said Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan was also concerned and wants them to return to the state by February 22-23. "The Central government has issued an advisory on this. Arrangement of aircraft etc have been made to get the students back. Everyone is concerned about the situation, including Prime Minister, Chief Minister and state government," Mishra, who is the MP government spokesperson, said. The Indian Embassy in Ukraine had earlier issued an advisory asking Indian nationals to leave the east European nation temporarily if their stay was not essential. "In view of the continued high levels of tensions and uncertainties with respect to the situation in Ukraine, all Indian nationals whose stay is not deemed essential and all Indian students are advised to leave Ukraine temporarily," the embassy had said.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | Ukraine and EU agree on establishing advisory military mission in Ukraine, Kyiv says
Ukraine and the European Union have reached a deal in principle on setting up an advisory military training mission in Ukraine, the country's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told reporters on Monday in Brussels. "We reached an agreement with the EU in principle that the EU will role out advisory training in Ukraine ... this is not combat forces," Kuleba said after meeting with the EU's foreign ministers.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | Moscow says shell fired from Ukraine destroys Russian border facility
Moscow said Monday that a shell fired from Ukraine had destroyed a border facility used by Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB), amid Western concerns about an escalation in fighting in east Ukraine."On February 21, at 9:50 am (0650 GMT), an unidentified projectile fired from Ukraine completely destroyed a border facility used by theFSBborder guard service in the Rostov region around 150 meters from the Russian-Ukrainian border," the security service said in a statement carried by Russian news agencies.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | Kremlin pours cold water on Ukraine peace summit plan
The Kremlin warned Monday there are no concrete plans for a summit between the Russian and US leaders, as diplomats scambled to head off the threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.The idea of a meeting between presidents Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden has been championed by France and cautiously welcomed by Ukraine as a way to avert a catastrophic war in Europe.But Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: "It's premature to talk about any specific plans for organising any kind of summits" adding that no "concrete plans" had been put in place. France's President Emmanuel Macron called Putin on Sunday and afterwards his office said that both the Russian and Biden were open to the idea.The summit would go ahead, however, only "on the condition that Russia does not invade Ukraine.""There is a diplomatic hope," France's minister for European affairs Clement Beaune told LCI television."If there is still a chance to avoid war, to avoid a confrontation and build a political and diplomatic solution, then we need to take it," he said.But in Washington, a senior US administration official told AFP: "Timing to be determined. Format to be determined. So it's all completely notional."Visiting Brussels, Ukraine's foreign minister welcomed the French effort."We believe that every effort aimed a diplomatic solution is worth trying," Dmytro Kuleba said ahead of a meeting with EU counterparts."We hope that the two presidents will walk out from the room with an agreement about Russia withdrawing its forces from Ukraine," he said.Defence Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said there was no sign of Russian forces withdrawing from the border, and that Moscow-backed rebels continue to shell Ukrainian positions. "Since the beginning of this day, as of 09:00, 14 attacks have already been recorded , 13 of them from weapons prohibited by the Minsk agreements," he told reporters in Kyiv."One of our soldiers was wounded," he said.
Russia annexed the Ukrainian region of Crimea in 2014 and Moscow-backed separatists hold an enclave in the eastern distracts of Lugansk and Donetsk.In recent weeks, according to US intelligence, Moscow has massed more than 150,000 troops and sailors around Ukraine's borders in Belarus, Russia, Crimea and the Black Sea.Biden has said that US intelligence believes that Putin has made a decision to invade Ukraine and that commanders are readying units to attack within days.Russia has long denied this, but state media accuse Kyiv of preparing a murderous assault against the rebel enclave, and has started evacuating civilians from the area.Kyiv and Washington accuse the Russians of plotting a "false flag" operation to fake Ukrainian atrocities in order to serve as a pretext for an all out assault.Meanwhile, Ukraine and Russia continue to blame each other for a spike in shellings on the front line separating Kyiv's forces from Moscow-backed separatists.The bombardments have sent Ukrainians fleeing to cellars and other shelters, while some civilians have been evacuated. The idea for a summit came moments after Macron held his second marathon call with Putin of the day. During their first, 105-minute discussion, Putin blamed the increase in violence on the front line on "provocations carried out by the Ukrainian security forces", according to a Kremlin statement.Putin repeated a call for "the United States and NATO to take Russian demands for security guarantees seriously".But Macron's office also said the two had agreed on "the need to favour a diplomatic solution to the ongoing crisis and to do everything to achieve one".The second time the pair spoke, late Sunday evening, it was for an hour, the French presidency said. The announcement of the summit came shortly after.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | Eurozone growth jumps as Omicron restrictions ease
Economic growth in theeurozonejumped sharply in February as restrictions to slow the spread of theCovidOmicron variant eased, a key survey showed on Monday.The sharp acceleration pushed growth to a five-month high,IHSMarkitsaid in its closely watched monthly PMI survey -- but it also noted that inflation was at a record rate and was pushing consumer prices higher.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | Slap sanctions on Russia now, Ukraine tells the EU
The European Union must start imposing some sanctions on Russia now to show it is serious about wanting to prevent a war in Ukraine, Ukraine's Foreign MinisterDmytroKulebasaid as he arrived in Brussels to meet the bloc's foreign ministers. Western countries fear a buildup of Russian troops near Ukraine in recent weeks is a prelude to an invasion and say this would trigger "massive" sanctions against Moscow. Russia denies any plans to invade but wants sweeping security guarantees. "We expect decisions,"Kulebasaid. "There are plenty of decisions the European Union can make now to send clear messages to Russia that its escalation will not be tolerated and Ukraine will not be left on its own." "We believe that there are good and legitimate reasons to impose at least some of the sanctions now to demonstrate that the European Union is not only talking the talk about sanctions, but is also walking the walk." But the EU's foreign policy chiefJosepBorrellappeared to reject the idea of immediate sanctions, saying he still saw room for diplomacy. Speaking shortly beforeKuleba,Borrelltold reporters he would convene an extraordinary EU meeting to agree sanctions "when the moment comes".
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | Euro gains, dollar eases on potential Biden-Putin summit
The euro rallied and the dollar retreated on Monday as investors pulled capital away from safe havens after U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed in principle to meet to discuss the crisis in Ukraine. The euro rose 0.5% to $1.1376 after losing some ground in early trade while the dollar index shed 0.4% against major currencies. "The price action reflects a combination of relief that Russia did not invade the Ukraine over the weekend (...) and the announcement that Presidents Biden and Putin have accepted in principle a French proposal for a diplomatic summit", wrote Lee Hardman, a currency analyst at MUFG. Hopes that the crisis might be moving towards de-escalation was being felt through most financial asset classes, and European stock markets opened in positive territory. The risk-friendly Australian dollar gained 0.6% to $0.7218 and sterling ticked up 0.24% to $1.3630. By contrast, safe-have currencies which have benefited from the tensions spurred by Russia's military build-up on Ukraine's borders were on the defensive.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | Kremlin says 'premature' to organise Biden-Putin summit on Ukraine
The Kremlin said Monday it was too early toorganisea summit between Russian leader Vladimir Putin and US President Joe Biden, after Paris announced the possibility of a meeting to calm tensions over Ukraine."It's premature to talk about any specific plans fororganisingany kind of summits," Kremlin spokesman DmitryPeskovtold reporters, adding that no "concrete plans" had been put in place for a meeting. (AFP)
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | France sees 'diplomatic hope' to resolve Ukraine crisis
France said Monday that it sees a chance to resolve the crisis between Russia and Ukraine over Moscow's troop build-up after Paris proposed a summit meeting between US President Joe Biden and Russia's Vladimir Putin."There is a diplomatic hope that was revived by the president" with the summit proposal, France's Europe Minister Clement Beaune told LCI TV, after the offer brokered by President Emmanuel Macron. "If there is still a chance to avoid war, to avoid a confrontation and build a political and diplomatic solution, then we need to take it," he said. The White House said Biden had in principle agreed to a meeting with Putin, so long as Moscow does not invade Ukraine, following talks Macron held with both leaders on Sunday.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | Ukraine hopes Putin-Biden summit can lead to Russian pullback
Ukraine's foreign minister on Monday welcomed a French initiative for a summit between US President Joe Biden and Russia's Vladimir Putin, saying Kyiv hoped it would result in Moscow pulling back its troops. "We welcome this initiative. We believe that every effort aimed a diplomatic solution is worth trying," Dmytro Kuleba said ahead of a meeting with EU counterparts in Brussels. "We hope that the two presidents will walk out from the room with an agreement about Russia withdrawing its forces from Ukraine." (AFP)
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | Oil falls on fresh hope of diplomacy over Ukraine crisis
Oil prices fell on Monday, reversing course from strong initial gains, as news of fresh diplomatic efforts to resolve the Ukraine crisis provided some relief from concerns about crude supply. Brent crude futures and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose more than $1 a barrel at the start of Asian trade as the Ukraine crisis threatened to disrupt Russian energy exports to Europe. But prices subsequently swung to a near $1 loss after the office of French President Emmanuel Macron said in a statement on Monday that U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin have agreed in principle to a summit over Ukraine. Brent crude futures slipped to $93.14 a barrel at 0730 GMT, down 40 cents or 0.4%, after earlier touching $95, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures dropped 28 cents to $90.79 a barrel, off an earlier high of $92.93. U.S. markets will be closed on Monday for the Presidents Day holiday. "A potential reduction of Ukraine tensions following the US/Russia summit announcement this morning has seen some sellers emerge in oil in Asia," OANDA's analyst Jeffrey Halley said. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Russia would be cut off from international financial markets and denied access to major exports needed to modernise its economy if it invaded Ukraine. "If a Russian invasion takes place as the U.S. and U.K. have warned in recent days, Brent futures could spike above $US100/bbl, even if an Iranian deal is reached," Commonwealth Bank analyst Vivek Dhar said in a note.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | How a Russia-Ukraine conflict might hit global markets
Here are five charts showing where a potential escalation of tensions could be felt across global markets:
SAFE HAVENS:A major risk event usually sees investors rushing back to bonds, generally seen as the safest assets, and this time may not be different, even if a Russian invasion of Ukraine risks further fanning oil prices -- and therefore inflation.Inflation at multi-decade highs and impending interest rate rises have made for a tetchy start to the year for bond markets, with U.S. 10-year rates still hovering close to the key 2% level and German 10-year yields above 0% for the first time since 2019.But an outright Russia-Ukraine conflict could change that.Inforexmarkets, the euro/Swiss franc exchange rate is seen as the biggest indicator of geopolitical risk in the euro zone as the Swiss currency has long been viewed by investors a safe haven. It hit its strongest levels since May 2015 in late January.
GRAINS AND WHEAT:Any interruption to the flow of grain out of the Black Sea region is likely to have a major impact on prices and further fuel food inflation at a time when affordability is a major concern across the globe following the economic damage caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.Four major exporters - Ukraine, Russia, Kazakhstan and Romania - ship grain from ports in the Black Sea which could face disruptions from any military action or sanctions.Ukraine is projected to be the world's third largest exporter of corn in the 2021/22 season and fourth largest exporter of wheat, according to International Grains Council data. Russia is the world's top wheat exporter.
NATURAL GAS & OIL:Energy markets are likely to be hit if tensions turn into conflict. Europe relies on Russia for around 35% of its natural gas, mostly coming through pipelines which cross Belarus and Poland to Germany,NordStream 1 which goes directly to Germany, and others through Ukraine.In 2020 volumes of gas from Russia to Europe fell afterlockdownssuppressed demand and did not recover fully last year when consumption surged, helping to send prices to record highs.As part of possible sanctions should Russia invade Ukraine, Germany has said it could halt the newNordStream 2 gas pipeline from Russia. The pipeline is projected to increase gas imports to Europe but also underlines its energy dependence on Moscow.Analysts expect natural gas exports from Russia to Western Europe to be significantly reduced through both Ukraine and Belarus in the event of sanctions, saying gas prices could revisit Q4 levels.Oil markets could also be affected through curbs or disruption. Ukraine moves Russian oil to Slovakia, Hungary and the Czech Republic. Ukraine's transit of Russian crude for export to the bloc was 11.9 million metric tonnes in 2021, down from 12.3 million metric tonnes in 2020, S&P GlobalPlattssaid in a note.JPMorgan said the tensions risked a "material spike" in oil prices and noted that a rise to $150 a barrel would reduce global GDP growth to just 0.9%annualisedin the first half of the year, while more than doubling inflation to 7.2%.
COMPANY EXPOSURE:Listed western firms could also feel the consequences from a Russian invasion, though for energy firms any blow to revenues or profits might be somewhat offset by a potential oil price jump.Britain's BP owns a 19.75% stake inRosneft, which makes up a third of its production, and also has a number of joint ventures with Russia's largest oil producer.Shell holds a 27.5% stake in Russia's first LNG plant, Sakhalin 2, accounting for a third of the country's total LNG exports, as well as a number of joint ventures with state energy giantGazprom. USenergy firm Exxonoperates through a subsidiary, the Sakhalin-1 oil and gas project, in which India's state-run explorer Oil and Natural Gas Corpalso holds a stake. Norway'sEquinoris also active in the country. In the financial sector, the risk is concentrated in Europe.Austria'sRaiffeisenBank Internationalderived 39% of its estimated net profit last year from its Russian subsidiary, Hungary'sOTPandUniCreditaround 7% from theirs, whileSocieteGeneralewas seen generating 6% of group net profits through itsRosbankretail operations. Dutch financial companyINGalso has a footprint in Russia though that accounts for less than 1% of net profit, according to calculations by JPMorgan.Looking at loan exposure to Russia, French and Austrian banks have the largest among Western lenders at $24.2 billion and $17.2 billion, respectively. They are followed by U.S. lenders at $16 billion, Japanese at $9.6 billion and German banks at $8.8 billion, data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) shows.Other sectors also have exposure: Renaultgenerates 8% of its EBIT in Russia. Germany's Metro AG's93 Russian stores generate just under 10% of its sales and 17% of its core profit while Danish brewer CarlsbergownsBaltika, Russia's largest brewer with market share of almost 40%.
REGIONAL DOLLAR BONDS AND CURRENCIES:Russian and Ukrainian assets will be at the forefront of any markets fallout from potential military action.Both countries' dollar bonds have underperformed their peers in recent months as investors have trimmed exposure amid escalating tensions between Washington and its allies and Moscow.Ukraine's fixed income markets are chiefly the remit of emerging market investors, while Russia's overall standing on capital markets has shrunk in recent years amid sanctions and geopolitical tensions, somewhat cushioning any threat of contagion through those channels.However, Ukrainian and Russian currencies have also suffered, with the hryvnia the worst-performing emerging markets currency year-to-date and theroubleat number five.The Ukraine-Russia situation presents "substantial uncertainties" for foreign currency markets, said Chris Turner, global head of markets atING."The events of late 2014 remind us of the liquidity gaps and U.S. dollar hoarding that led to a substantial drop in theroubleat that time," said Turner.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | Russia has lists of Ukrainians 'to be killed or sent to camps', US warns UN
The United States has warned the United Nations it has information that Russia has lists of Ukrainians "to be killed or sent to camps" in the event of an invasion, according to a letter sent to the UN rights chief and obtained by AFP Sunday.The letter, which came as Washington warned of an imminent invasion by Russian troops massed near the Ukrainian border, says the United States is "deeply concerned" and warns of a potential "human rights catastrophe."The United States has "credible information that indicates Russian forces are creating lists of identified Ukrainians to be killed or sent to camps following a military occupation," the letter says."We also have credible information that Russian forces will likely use lethal measures to disperse peaceful protests or otherwise counter peaceful exercises of perceived resistance from civilian populations," says the message, addressed to UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | Tokyo shares end lower on Ukraine crisis
Tokyo shares ended lower on Monday as geopolitical tensions soared over the situation in Ukraine. The benchmark Nikkei 225 index gave up 0.78 percent, or 211.20 points, to 26,910.87, while the broader Topix index slipped 0.71 percent, or 13.63 points, to 1,910.68. The dollar stood at 114.94 yen in Asian trade, off slightly from 115.03 yen in New York late Friday. The intensifying crisis over a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine continued to weigh on the market.
But Tokyo stocks trimmed losses after US President Joe Biden and his counterpart Vladimir Putin agreed to a summit to be held only if Russia does not invade Ukraine, although the news was not enough to send shares into positive territory. "Investors have been wary of geopolitical risks over the intensifying Ukraine situation, causing the Nikkei index to open lower," Okasan Online Securities said.
The 1.2 percent fall in the tech-rich US Nasdaq index on Friday also drove down "growth" shares of rapidly expanding companies, the brokerage added. After a morning selloff, investors bought some shares on dips, halting a further drop of the market. They then took a wait-and-see stance towards the end of the session with the US market closed for a national holiday on Monday.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | US says Russia closer to invading Ukraine
Russia on Sunday rescinded earlier pledges to pull tens of thousands of its troops back from Ukraine's northern border, a move that U.S. leaders said put Russia another step closer to what they said was the planned invasion of Ukraine. Residents of Ukraine's capital filled a gold-domed cathedral to pray for peace.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | Russia could lose financial markets access, advanced goods if it invades Ukraine: EU chief
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen disclosed some details of the sanctions Moscow would face if it invaded Ukraine, saying Russia would be cut off from international financial markets and denied access to major export goods. Western leaders have until now refused to be drawn on the details of the responses they have agreed on if Russia invaded, only ruling out a military response and promising economic sanctions that would be unprecedented in scale.
"Russia would in principle be cut off from the international financial markets," Von der Leyen told ARD public television late on Sunday evening. Sanctions would be imposed on "all goods we make that Russia urgently needs to modernise and diversify its economy, where we are globally dominant and they have no replacement," she said. She said sanctions would not be imposed until after any invasion, rejecting calls on Saturday by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy for immediate sanctions.
"The move to sanctions is so enormous and consequential that we know we must always give Russia a chance to return to diplomacy and the negotiating table," she said. "This window is still open." Russia, which has stationed some 150,000 soldiers around Ukraine's northern and eastern borders, is demanding a guarantee that Ukraine never be allowed to join the NATO alliance, something President Vladimir Putin says is essential to Russia's long term security.
But Von der Leyen, who heads the 27-member European Union's executive, said Russia's reliance on fossil fuel exports was its weakness. "They make up two thirds of its exports, and half of the Russia budget comes from them," she said. Russia needed to modernise, and "precisely that would no longer be possible" if further sanctions were raised.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | Euro gains on potential Joe Biden-Vladimir Putin summit
The euro rallied on Monday, taking heart from news of a possible meeting between U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss the crisis in Ukraine. Many details remain unclear but the office of French President Emmanuel Macron said the two leaders had agreed in principle to a summit on "security and strategic stability in Europe."
The White House said in a statement that Biden had accepted the meeting "in principle" but only "if an invasion hasn't happened." The euro climbed 0.35% higher to $1.1362 after it lost some ground in early trade. The risk-friendly Australian dollar gained 0.55%. "Russia-Ukraine tensions are starting to dominate risk sentiment and price action. The market is likely to keep chasing headlines without any clarity on the eventual outcome," said analysts at Barclays in a note.
The yen in contrast gave up most of its early gains to trade at 114.97 yen per dollar. Like the Swiss franc, the safe-haven Japanese currency has benefited from the tensions spurred by Russia's military build-up on Ukraine's borders. Sterling gained 0.19% to $1.3623 ahead of the release of PMI data which will give an indication of the impact of the Omicron strain of COVID-19 on the British economy.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six peers, fell 0.28%. Currency markets participants are also focused on central bank policy, seeking clues on the speed and size of interest rate hikes in major markets. Markets will be closely watching remarks from U.S. Federal Reserve policy makers this week for any hint that an expected rate hike at the Fed's March meeting could veer more towards to 50 basis points instead of the current consensus for a 25 basis point increase.
Public remarks are also due from several BOE policy makers. Bitcoin BTC=BTSP> recovered a little from a mild bruising over the weekend. The world's largest cryptocurrency was up 2.3% at around $39,000. Early on Monday it touched a two-week low of $38,210.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | Russia has lists of Ukrainians 'to be killed or sent to camps', US warns UN
The United States has warned the United Nations it has information that Russia has lists of Ukrainians "to be killed or sent to camps" in the event of an invasion, according to a letter sent to the UN rights chief and obtained by AFP Sunday. The letter, which came as Washington warned of an imminent invasion by Russian troops massed near the Ukrainian border, says the United States is "deeply concerned" and warns of a potential "human rights catastrophe."
The United States has "credible information that indicates Russian forces are creating lists of identified Ukrainians to be killed or sent to camps following a military occupation," the letter says. "We also have credible information that Russian forces will likely use lethal measures to disperse peaceful protests or otherwise counter peaceful exercises of perceived resistance from civilian populations," says the message, addressed to UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet.
The note, signed by Bathsheba Nell Crocker, US ambassador to the UN in Geneva, warns a Russian invasion of Ukraine could bring with it abuses such as kidnappings or torture, and could target political dissidents and religious and ethnic minorities, among others. Russia has placed more than 150,000 troops near Ukraine's borders in recent weeks, the United States and Western allies have estimated. Moscow denies it plans to attack its neighbor, but is seeking a guarantee that Ukraine will never join NATO and that the Western alliance will remove forces from Eastern Europe, demands the West has refused.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | Amid Russia-Ukraine tensions, Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan to visit Russia on February 23-24: Reports
Prime Minister Imran Khan will visit Russia on February 23-24, the official Russian media has reported, signalling the first visit by a Pakistani premier to Moscow in 23 years. Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed that preparations for the visit of the Prime Minister Khan were underway, the state-run TASS news agency reported on Sunday.
"The visit will take place on February 23-24," it quoted a source in diplomatic circles as saying. Khan's visit has not been officially announced by Pakistan and Russia. Khan is expected to hold a key meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, sources in Pakistan said earlier. Pakistan and Russia are expected to strike major deals during the trip, including a movement forward on Russian investment to build a USD 2 billion worth gas pipeline, Pakistani media reported last week.
A Russian delegation was in Pakistan recently to negotiate toll-free proceedings and tax exemptions in connection with the Pakistan Gas Stream Project. The Pakistani leadership wants to sign a commercial agreement with Russia during Khan's visit. Another project which is likely to be on the agenda is the gas pipeline from Kazakhstan. Khan will become the first Pakistani premier to visit Russia in 23 years after former premier Nawaz Sharif travelled to Moscow after the end of the Cold War.
Pakistan's ties with Russia have moved past the bitter Cold War hostilities in recent years and the chill in the relations between Pakistan and the US has further pushed the country towards Russia and China. In April last year, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visited Islamabad after a gap of almost nine years. During the visit, he conveyed a message to Pakistani leadership on behalf of President Putin that Moscow was willing to extend all possible help to Islamabad.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | US claims Russia has list of Ukrainians "to be killed or sent to camps" following a military occupation: The Washington Post
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | As the Ukraine crisis escalates Middle East countries will be forced to pick a side
As the spectaer of all-out war in Ukraine looms large, a confrontation between Russia and the West over Ukriane will undoubtedly have ripple effects on the countries of the Middile East, which must take hard decisions and choose sides.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | Vladimir Putin, Joe Biden agree in principle to summit as Ukraine tensions soar
Russian President Vladimir Putin and his US counterpart Joe Biden have agreed to a summit -- to be held only if Moscow does not invade Ukraine, France announced Monday following a frantic new round of diplomacy to avert an all-out war. Both leaders have said yes in principle to the summit, proposed by French President Emmanuel Macron, his office said, with the White House confirming Biden's willingness, though it was notably cautious.
A senior administration official told AFP: "Timing to be determined. Format to be determined so it's all completely notional." The Elysee added that the summit will be expanded to "relevant stakeholders" and that preparations would start between Russia and the United States on Thursday. The possible breakthrough came after Washington warned of an imminent invasion and Ukraine and Russia blamed each other for a spike in shellings on the front line separating Kyiv's forces from Moscow-backed separatists.
The bombardments have sent Ukrainians fleeing to cellars and other shelters, while some civilians have been evacuated. In its own statement, the White House warned that it was still ready "to impose swift and severe consequences" should Russia invade. "And currently, Russia appears to be continuing preparations for a full-scale assault on Ukraine very soon," US press secretary Jen Psaki said.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | Russia could lose financial markets access, advanced goods if it invades Ukraine: EU chief
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen disclosed some details of the sanctions Moscow would face if it invaded Ukraine, saying Russia would be cut off from international financial markets and denied access to major export goods. Western leaders have until now refused to be drawn on the details of the responses they have agreed on if Russia invaded, only ruling out a military response and promising economic sanctions that would be unprecedented in scale.
"Russia would in principle be cut off from the international financial markets," Von der Leyen told ARD public television late on Sunday evening. Sanctions would be imposed on "all goods we make that Russia urgently needs to modernise and diversify its economy, where we are globally dominant and they have no replacement," she said. She said sanctions would not be imposed until after any invasion, rejecting calls on Saturday by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy for immediate sanctions.
"The move to sanctions is so enormous and consequential that we know we must always give Russia a chance to return to diplomacy and the negotiating table," she said. "This window is still open." Russia, which has stationed some 150,000 soldiers around Ukraine's northern and eastern borders, is demanding a guarantee that Ukraine never be allowed to join the NATO alliance, something President Vladimir Putin says is essential to Russia's long term security.
But Von der Leyen, who heads the 27-member European Union's executive, said Russia's reliance on fossil fuel exports was its weakness. "They make up two thirds of its exports, and half of the Russia budget comes from them," she said. Russia needed to modernise, and "precisely that would no longer be possible" if further sanctions were raised.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | Asia shares skid, oil surges as Ukraine tensions smoulder
Asian share markets slid and oil surged on Monday amid warnings Russia was set to invade Ukraine, risking sanctions that could trigger a further spike in energy costs and stoke global inflation. Russia upped the ante in the high-stakes diplomatic game by extending military drills in Belarus, while satellite imagery from Maxar showed multiple new field deployments of armour and troops near the border with Ukraine.
An adviser to French President Emmanuel Macron said France and Russia had agreed that a meeting of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe should be called for Monday. Oil prices climbed almost 2% in early action and Treasury futures firmed. S&P 500 futures fell 0.6% and Nasdaq futures drifted 1.2%. U.S. markets are on holiday on Monday but futures still traded.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slipped 0.4%, while Japan's Nikkei lost 1.9%. The latest survey of global fund managers from BofA confirmed the bearish turn as holdings of cash rose to the highest since mid-2020. Funds had the largest overweight share in energy in a decade, and were the most underweight in tech in 15 years.
Also troubling markets has been the prospect of an aggressive tightening by the U.S. Federal Reserve as inflation runs rampant. The Fed's favoured measure of core inflation is due out later this week and is forecast to show an annual rise of 5.1% - the fastest pace since the early 1980s. "January inflation readings have surprised materially to the upside," noted JPMorgan chief economist Bruce Kasman.
"We now look for the Fed to hike 25bp (basis points) at each of the next nine meetings, with the policy rate approaching a neutral stance by early next year." At least six Fed officials are set to speak this week and markets will be hyper-sensitive to their views on a possible hike of 50 basis points in March. Recent commentary has leant against such a drastic step and futures have scaled back the chance of a half-point rise to around 20% from well above 50% a week ago.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | US plans to cut ties with targeted Russian banks if Ukraine is invaded
President Joe Biden's administration has prepared an initial package of sanctions against Russia that includes barring U.S. financial institutions from processing transactions for major Russian banks, three people familiar with the matter said. The measures, which would only be implemented if Russia invades Ukraine, aim to hurt the Russian economy by cutting the "correspondent" banking relationships between targeted Russian banks and U.S. banks that enable international payments.
While U.S. authorities have said banking restrictions would be part of a package of possible sanctions, the administration's plan to cut correspondent banking ties - which underpin global money flows - has not previously been reported. The United States will also wield its most powerful sanctioning tool against certain Russian individuals and companies by placing them on the Specially Designated Nationals (SDN) list, effectively kicking them out of the U.S. banking system, banning their trade with Americans and freezing their U.S. assets, the same sources said.
The White House and Treasury Department declined to comment. The sources said the package could change up to the last minute and it was unclear who the targets would be. However, they believe top Russian financial institutions including VTB Bank, Sberbank, VEB, and Gazprombank are possible targets. Experts consulted by Reuters said that while the correspondent banking tool lacks the punch of an SDN designation, which freezes a bank's assets, they could still deal a meaningful blow to the target banks by making it difficult to transact in U.S. dollars, the global reserve currency.
Much of global trade is transacted in dollars. It is unclear whether Russian banks would be added to the SDN list, but both types of sanctions could hit Russia hard. "Since a significant number of global trade transactions are in U.S. dollars this is a sanction with bite, but without the more complicated and deadly sanction of being placed on the SDN list and having all assets in the U.S. or in the hands of U.S. persons frozen," said Washington lawyer Kay Georgi, who specializes in international trade. Sources noted that the administration could exempt certain transactions from the restrictions if deemed necessary.
'UPFRONT COSTS'
The Biden administration has been threatening tough banking sanctions against Russia for weeks in a bid to deter Russian President Vladimir Putin from invading Ukraine. Moscow has amassed upwards of 150,000 troops on Ukraine's borders, but Putin has denied plans to launch an attack. Peter Harrell, who sits on the National Security Council, said last month that "heavy hitting financial sanctions" were part of a strategy to hurt Russia's economy but spare its citizens.
"The goal of the financial sanctions is really to have short term upfront costs on Russia, to trigger capital flight, to trigger inflation, to make the Russian central bank provide bailouts to its banks," he said in a speech late last month. The tough warnings have put some U.S. financial firms on edge. Members of the financial services and payment industries have been in touch in recent days with the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control, which administers sanctions, sources said.
Tensions grew over the weekend as Russia extended military drills in Belarus, heightening fears among Western powers of an imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine. Biden and Putin on Sunday agreed in principle to a summit, France said, offering hope conflict could be avoided. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the United States and Britain would cut off Russian companies' access to U.S. dollars and British pounds if the Kremlin orders an invasion. The Biden administration has been similarly aggressive in its rhetoric. In a briefing on Friday, Deputy National Security advisor Daleep Singh told reporters that the cost to Russia of an invasion would be "immense, both to its economy and its strategic position in the world."
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | Joe Biden will meet Vladimir Putin 'if an invasion hasn't happened'; Read White House full statement
US President Joe Biden has agreed in principle to a meeting with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin so long as Moscow does not invade Ukraine, the White House confirmed Sunday after it was first announced by France. The US is "committed to pursuing diplomacy until the moment an invasion begins," press secretary Jen Psaki said in a statement. "President Biden accepted in principle a meeting with President Putin ... if an invasion hasn't happened." "We are also ready to impose swift and severe consequences should Russia instead choose war. And currently, Russia appears to be continuing preparations for a full-scale assault on Ukraine very soon," she added.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | Oil slips on Ukraine summit plan, prospect of Iran nuclear deal
Oil prices fell on Monday on a plan for U.S. President Joe Biden and Russia's Vladimir Putin to hold a summit on the Ukraine crisis and on prospects of a nuclear deal between Iran and world powers in the next week or two. The office of French President Emmanuel Macron said in a statement on Monday he had pitched to both leaders a summit over "security and strategic stability in Europe." The White House said Biden had accepted the meeting "in principle" but only "if an invasion hasn't happened."
Brent crude futures fell 73 cents or 0.8% to $92.81 at 0224 GMT after having jumped more $1 than to $95.00 in early trade, its highest level since Wednesday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures similarly fell 52 cents or 0.6% to $90.55 a barrel after having hit a high of $92.93. Oil markets have been jittery over the past month on worries a Russian invasion of its neighbour could disrupt crude supplies, but price gains have been limited by the possibility of more than 1 million barrels a day of Iranian crude returning to the market.
A senior European Union official said on Friday a deal to revive Iran's 2015 nuclear agreement was "very very close". Analysts said the market remained tight, and any addition of oil would help, but prices would remain volatile in the near term as Iranian crude would only likely return later this year. "There's just so many pressures geopolitically it's difficult to know what the answer is (on market movements) - with Ukraine and Iran," said National Australia Bank commodity analyst Baden Moore.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Russia would be cut off from international financial markets and denied access to major exports needed to modernise its economy if it invaded Ukraine. "If a Russian invasion takes place as the U.S. and U.K. have warned in recent days, Brent futures could spike above $US100/bbl, even if an Iranian deal is reached," Commonwealth Bank analyst Vivek Dhar said in a note.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | As the Ukraine crisis escalates Middle East countries will be forced to pick a side
As the spectaer of all-out war in Ukraine looms large, a confrontation between Russia and the West over Ukriane will undoubtedly have ripple effects on the countries of the Middile East, which must take hard decisions and choose sides.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | Vladimir Putin, Joe Biden agree in principle to summit as Ukraine tensions soar
Russian President Vladimir Putin and his US counterpart Joe Biden have agreed to a summit -- to be held only if Moscow does not invade Ukraine, France announced Monday following a frantic new round of diplomacy to avert an all-out war. Both leaders have said yes in principle to the summit, proposed by French President Emmanuel Macron, his office said, with the White House confirming Biden's willingness, though it was notably cautious.
A senior administration official told AFP: "Timing to be determined. Format to be determined so it's all completely notional." The Elysee added that the summit will be expanded to "relevant stakeholders" and that preparations would start between Russia and the United States on Thursday. The possible breakthrough came after Washington warned of an imminent invasion and Ukraine and Russia blamed each other for a spike in shellings on the front line separating Kyiv's forces from Moscow-backed separatists.
The bombardments have sent Ukrainians fleeing to cellars and other shelters, while some civilians have been evacuated. In its own statement, the White House warned that it was still ready "to impose swift and severe consequences" should Russia invade. "And currently, Russia appears to be continuing preparations for a full-scale assault on Ukraine very soon," US press secretary Jen Psaki said.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | French statement announcing Joe Biden-Vladimir Putin summit on Ukraine
US President Joe Biden and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin have accepted in principle to hold a summit, so long as Moscow does not invade Ukraine, the French presidency announced Monday. Western powers have mounted a last-ditch effort to prevent a European war after a huge buildup of Russian troops along Ukraine's frontier. The summit, announced by France after a phone call between President Emmanuel Macron and Putin, has been accepted in principle by Moscow and Washington, according to the announcement.
Here is the full statement announcing the summit:
The President of the Republic spoke with the President of the United States, Mr. Joe Biden and the President of the Russian Federation, Mr. Vladimir Putin.
He proposed a summit to be held between President Biden and President Putin and then with relevant stakeholders to discuss security and strategic stability in Europe.
Presidents Biden and Putin have both accepted the principle of such a summit. The substance will have to be prepared by Secretary Blinken and Minister Lavrov during their meeting on Thursday 24 February.
It can only be held at the condition that Russia does not invade Ukraine.
The President of the Republic will work with all stakeholders to prepare the content of these discussions.
