Finland’s surprise decision to join NATO is no security guarantee against Russia

In a formal ceremony in Brussels on Tuesday,  Finland joined NATO to become its 31st member, adding 1,300 kilometres to the alliance’s frontier with Russia and bringing a major shift to the security landscape in North-Eastern Europe.

But experts doubt whether this will provide any significant security guarantee to Finland if Russia were to attack it in future.

Room for manoeuvre 

Sweden was also to join NATO along with neighbour Finland, but its attempt has been stalled by members Turkey and Hungary.

In the West, Finland’s decision was touted as a major blow to Russia.

“Each country maximizes its own security. So does Finland. At the same time, NATO membership strengthens our international position and room for manoeuvre. As a partner, we have long actively participated in NATO activities,” the Finnish foreign ministry said in a statement.

The Finnish Parliament had voted 188 to 8 in favour of NATO membership.

Russian aggression has actually offered reason for Finland to be less concerned about a Russian threat since it has shown Russia’s military to be less fearsome than expected, says Andrew L. Stigler, a professor at the US Naval War College.

However, he points out that the decision by Finland comes at the point of “maximum inconvenience” for the alliance, as the West “walks the tightrope of offering increased military support for Ukraine while simultaneously containing the potential forR multilateral escalation.”

‘Door firmly open’  

Russia warned that further NATO expansion will not bring more stability to Europe.

“We will strengthen our military capabilities in the west and northwest if NATO members deploy forces and equipment on Finnish territory,” Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko said.

But NATO secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg said Russian President Vladimir Putin had “failed” in his attempt to “slam NATO’s door shut.”

“Today, we show the world that he failed, that aggression and intimidation do not work. Instead of less NATO, he has achieved the opposite – more NATO – and our door remains firmly open,” Stoltenberg added.

Interestingly, though Russia had warned against further expansion of NATO, in an interview with the Turkish Anadolu Agency in June last year, the Russian President had made it clear that Moscow did not have any problem with Finland or Sweden’s NATO membership.

Responding in a mirror manner 

“We do not have such problems with Sweden and Finland, which, unfortunately, we have with Ukraine. We have no territorial issues… no disputes… we have nothing that could bother us from the point of view of Finland's or Sweden's membership in NATO, said Putin.

He went on to add: “Only they should plainly and clearly realize that there were no threats before; now, if military contingents and infrastructure are deployed there, we will have to respond in a mirror manner and create the same threats to the territories from which threats are created to us.”

NATO expansion 

NATO was created in April 1949 in Washington under America’s initiative with its European allies to counter the Soviet Union’s rapid expansion in Europe.

From 16 members during the Cold War, NATO now has 31 members. Most of its expansion has been after the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991 and towards the direction of Russia.

Since coming to power in 2000, Vladimir Putin has seen ver four expansions of NATO.

Though he was unable to prevent the earlier expansions, he sees Ukraine’s membership in NATO as an existential threat for Russia.

But the US’ refusal to deny Ukraine the right to be a member of NATO had led Putin to send in the Russian tanks to Ukraine in February 2022  on the pretext of saving the Russian-speaking population in the country in the face of Kyiv’s attempt to marginalise them.

Observers pointed out that so far, NATO members had been careful not to get directly involved in the war to ensure the conflict does not deteriorate into a nuclear conflagration.

Article 5 

They supported Ukraine with weapons, financial assistance and military intelligence.

Under NATO’s Article 5, if any member of the alliance comes under attack from an outside force, it will be deemed as an attack on all NATO members.

This article was enforced only once so far—in the aftermath of 9/11 when all NATO countries got together to fight global terrorism.

For much of the period since Article 5, NATO has acted as a deterrent to any attack on member countries.

But the big question remains whether it will be activated if any of the members are attacked by Russia—the possessor of the largest nuclear arsenal in the world.