Elon Musk has weighed in on concerns about the global population decline predicted in India and China, calling it one of the word's most pressing challenges. He highlighted the issue on X, Musk highlighted a graph originally posted by the Tesla Owners Silicon Valley account.
The graph showed projected population changes between 2018 and 2100 for key nations, including Nigeria, the United States, Indonesia, and Pakistan, underscoring the looming demographic shifts.
The account posted: "Population collapse is humanity's greatest threat... Elon Musk," to which Musk wrote: "Yes."
For many years, experts have acknowledged that the world is moving toward a period of population decline, although there remains an ongoing debate regarding the pace of this phenomenon and the specific countries that will be most affected. Several key factors contribute to this decline, including decreasing fertility rates, emigration, and an aging population, reported NDTV. In numerous nations, the average number of children per woman has fallen below the replacement threshold of 2.1, which is necessary to sustain a stable population.
In 2023, the average number of children per woman in England and Wales reached a historic low of 1.44, according to the Office for National Statistics. Globally, fertility rates have experienced a significant decline, decreasing from an average of 5.3 children per woman in 1963 to less than half that figure today, as reported by the Daily Express.
A graph published in 2020 illustrates that while both India and China had populations of approximately 1.5 billion in 2018, their demographic trends are expected to diverge markedly. By the year 2100, India’s population is projected to decline to just under 1.1 billion, representing a decrease of roughly 400 million. In contrast, China's population is anticipated to experience a dramatic reduction to 731.9 million, a staggering decrease of 731 million. Consequently, Nigeria is projected to become the world’s second most populous country by the end of the century, with an estimated population of 790.1 million.
According to a 2020 study by University of Washington academics, quoted in the NDTV report, population loss may happen faster than previously thought, especially in China and India.
The United States is predicted to be the fourth-largest country in the world by 2100, with positive net migration supporting population stability even as fertility rates are below replacement levels. In a similar vein, migration is anticipated to sustain semi-stable populations in Canada and Australia.
Current growth countries like Indonesia and Pakistan are forecast to see modest population reductions by 2100, while Ethiopia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo are predicted to overtake them at the turn of the century.
Global population decline has been a recurrent source of concern for Elon Musk, who has warned that "population collapse is coming."
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