US President Donald Trump’s pivot toward Russia in efforts to end the war in Ukraine has raised concerns not only in Europe and Ukraine but also in Beijing. The potential for a peace deal that excludes Kyiv and European allies could upend China’s role in the conflict, leaving Beijing scrambling to understand how this shift will impact its relationship with Russia and the US, as reported by CNN.
Beijing’s initial hopes for peace negotiations
Just weeks ago, China appeared poised to play a central role in Ukraine peace talks. Trump had suggested working with Chinese President Xi Jinping to leverage China’s economic influence over Russia to help end the war. This aligned with China’s desire to be seen as a neutral party capable of brokering peace, while maintaining its trade with Russia. However, with Trump’s turn toward Russia, Beijing has found itself excluded from these discussions, raising concerns about its diminishing diplomatic role.
Xi’s balancing act with Russia
For Xi, the stakes are high. His strong relationship with Putin has positioned Russia as a key partner in countering US influence. China’s choice to remain neutral on Russia’s invasion has cost it some European trust, but the deepening ties with Moscow have been seen as essential in challenging Western powers. Now, with Trump’s push to bring Russia into the fold, Beijing is questioning the long-term stability of its alliance with Moscow.
The risk of a “reverse Nixon” scenario
Trump’s outreach to Russia has sparked fears in Beijing that the US could exploit a rift between Russia and China. Some analysts worry that a shift in Russia-China relations could weaken Beijing’s position globally, especially if the US finds a way to divide the two powers. Yun Sun from the Stimson Center suggests that even a small disruption in their relationship could make Xi reconsider China’s dependence on Russia, particularly regarding security issues like Taiwan.
US focus on China post-peace deal
China is concerned that once peace is achieved in Ukraine, the US will turn its full attention to China. US officials have signalled a shift in focus toward "deterring war with China," which could force Beijing to reconsider its strategy. While the Russia-China partnership remains strong, China may find itself forced to recalibrate its stance as the US strengthens its position.
China’s potential role in Ukraine’s reconstruction
If a peace deal is reached, China may seek to reassert itself by contributing to Ukraine’s reconstruction or offering peacekeeping forces through the United Nations. This would allow Beijing to recover some diplomatic ground and potentially restore its influence on the global stage.
As Trump’s foreign policy continues to evolve, Beijing will be watching closely, attempting to navigate its relationship with both Russia and the US while ensuring that its own strategic interests remain intact.
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