Aug-Sept monsoon season might be impacted by El Nino: IMD

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a normal monsoon tempering concerns that we might be in for a drought. If the IMD’s prediction for the June to September monsoon is correct, this will come as a huge relief to over 60% of the country’s agricultural workforce as well as to policymakers.

IMD will update the monsoon forecast towards the end of June, when it will also estimate the rainfall for July and August, during which most of India gets its maximum rainfall, and also gauge how the monsoon will progress over broad geographical divisions such as the north-west, north-east, south and central India.
LS Rathore, director general, IMD tells CNBC-TV18 that while the probabilities of a normal monsoon are exceptionally high, we might see a slight El Nino effect towards the tail end of August to September monsoon. Below is an edited transcript of his interview. Watch the accompanying video for more. Q: How accurate can the prediction be at this early stage and what is the probability that there could be a miss?
A: Actually this 47% has to be seen in reference to the normal probability of a normal monsoon and when you analyse that, it is 1.4 times the normal and therefore it is a significant probability. Q: Any details right now on what kind of rainfall will be received by some of the important crop belts?
A: In terms of crops, the major crop is rice and rice growing states in my opinion will be comfortable. Q: There have been some noises that the El Nino might become a factor at some point of the season. Does that worry you at all?
A: If you look in terms of tele-connections the monsoon has with these parameters, the signals are very strongly connected with oceanic temperatures, from the Indian Ocean to Atlantic Ocean to Pacific Ocean. When you talk in terms of Pacific warming, which is what we relate to – warming is El Nino and cooling is La Nina - as of now it is a neutral phase and it is going to remain so for next couple of months.
The forecast for sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific for the months of August and September are indicative of slight warming and that warming magnitude as of now what is predicted is about 0.5 degree therefore it is not very significant. Q: The food secretary recently spoke about the fact that while the start of the first part of the monsoon maybe good, the latter half is the one which could be tricky. Do you agree with that assessment?
A: That is right because the sea surface temperature is increasing in the latter half of monsoon. El Nino has a negative correlation with health of monsoon. At the same time, it is the extent of the warm water in the Central Pacific which is equally important. To what extent the spread of warm water is going to be there coupled with what is the magnitude of temperature rise that will determine how it is impacting and such phenomena. Also Read: Normal monsoon seen with 99% rainfall in India: IMD