Vijay Rupani had to go as BJP wanted to take no chances on Gujarat polls

There were many other reasons for Rupani’s elevation. Though this was before his second term as PM, Modi was quite confident of his appeal to the voters. He brought in Rupani because he was a Jain in a state that was dominated by Patels.

So much so that when Keshubhai Patel made way for Narendra Modi as chief minister of Gujarat in October 2001, the former was more than surprised. “How can a Patel be replaced in a Patel dominated polity,’ Keshubhai is supposed to have quizzed.

Narendra Modi has from the beginning trying to throw off the Patel yoke. Rupani’s appointment was a sign that Modi was feeling confident enough – though this confidence came 15 years after Modi became the Gujarat CM.

But as of now, (in 2021) Modi is not exactly at the zenith of his powers, is the opinion of top political watchers. In Gujarat, the popularity of the BJP is on the wane and even in the 2017 assembly elections, the saffron party could win only 99 seats in a house of 182.

The Congress won a sizeable 77 seats. In 2012, five years before this BJP had won 117 seats against the Congress’ tally of 60 seats. In the forthcoming December 2022 polls, analysts say by going trends the BJP-Congress gap will be closed.

This is even as Congress as a party is waning. To prevent the BJP tally from falling, Modi has changed the chief minister of Gujarat and is now believed to be looking at a Patel chief minister.

The Patels in the race

There are many Patels who are in the fray this time: starting from Mansukh Mandavia (cabinet minister in Modi’s government in Delhi), Praful Patel (the controversial Lt Governor of Lakshadweep), Nitin Patel (cabinet minister in Gujarat who has been aspirant for long) and Parshottam Rupala, BJP MP from Gujarat.

There is also a non- Patel aspirant: the state party chief C R Patil who is from south Gujarat. Sources suggest that Modi feels that a Patel chief minister might show a better result for BJP at the state hustings. This will serve the BJP well.

BJP established itself as a winning party in Gujarat in the late 1980s and early 1990s with the support of Patels. The Patels, an upcoming agrarian class was at that time becoming very dominant.

They were earlier with the Congress but left the party as the then Congress chief minister Madhavsinh Solanki, himself an OBC brought in reservations for OBCs to increase his popularity.

This miffed the Patels who were beneficiaries of the Green Revolution but then only taken to education. So at a time when the Patels felt that they were ready to qualify for government jobs, Solanki pulled the rug from under their feet.

This angered the Patels to no end and led to caste and anti-reservation violence. At the end of the riots, the Patels left the Congress and joined the BJP en masse.

This benefitted the BJP because the Patels were economically empowered as well. Congress fell by the wayside and had never been in power in the state.

Modi though an OBC has been able to bolster his pro-Hindu image encompassing the Patels. But his successors like Rupani have not been able to carry on in the same light and lost popularity.

In the last two years, the poor management of COVID and consequently a tanking economy has also pushed the BJP back. The Congress faced with its troubles at the Centre may not have made any comeback but Aam Admi Party (AAP) is making some inroads in the state.

Modi, whose popularity in many states may not be as strong as before, does not want to take any chances. So the change in the chief ministership of Gujarat at least a year before the Gujarat assembly polls in December 2022.