India is gearing up for the biggest festival of democracy -- the Lok Sabha elections 2024 -- which are likely to be held in April-May. With the polls approaching, all eyes are inevitably turning towards the key states that will once again shape the political landscape for the next five years.
The Lok Sabha elections are conducted across 543 constituencies, distributed among various states and Union Territories. Certain states hold more significance than others due to the higher number of seats they represent in the lower house of Parliament.
For instance, Uttar Pradesh is the most crucial state politically since it sends 80 members to the Lok Sabha. In both 2014 and 2019, UP was critical for BJP's success since the party won a major chunk of its total seats from this state.
Here are some of the key states that matter the most in the road to Delhi:
Uttar Pradesh
With a staggering count of 80 Lok Sabha seats, Uttar Pradesh is considered the most important state for the general election. It is often said that the road to Delhi passes through Lucknow, the capital of Uttar Pradesh, which is the most populous state of India.
In 2019 general election, the BJP-led NDA won 64 of the 80 seats while the saffron party alone had 62 seats to its name. In 2014, the BJP had won a record 71 seats in the state. In the upcoming polls, parties under the opposition bloc Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) including Samajwadi Party (SP) and Congress are set to contest together to challenge the saffron party's dominance.
Maharashtra
At 48, Maharashtra has the second highest number of Lok Sabha seats and plays a key role in defining the fate of political parties.
In the 2019 general election, the BJP won 23 seats in the state, while Shiv Sena secured 18. At that time, the two parties were in alliance during the elections. However, the Shiv Sena later joined hands with the Congress and NCP to form the Maha Vikas Aghadi. Later, the party saw a vertical split when Eknath Shinde staged a rebellion and joined hands with BJP. NCP followed suit with the Ajit Pawar-led splinter group joining NDA. In 2024, the electoral contest in Maharashtra will be a keen clash of alliances and the splinter groups within even as the BJP-led NDA hopes for a repeat of 2019.
West Bengal
West Bengal has as many as 42 Lok Sabha seats under its belt. Over the years, the ruling TMC has ceded space to BJP in the politically crucial state.
Case in point is the 2019 general election when chief minister Mamata Banerjee-led TMC (Trinamool Congress) won 22 seats while the BJP improved its seat tally from 2 to 18 seats. The ruling TMC, which is a part of the opposition INDIA bloc nationally, has decided to fight the elections alone in the state after disagreement over seat-sharing with Congress.
Bihar
Bihar is one of the most important state when it comes to the Indian politics. With 40 Lok Sabha seats in its kitty, the state has the power to influence the general election at any time.
The BJP, Janata Dal (United) and undivided Lok Janashakti Party (LJP) contested the 2019 Lok Sabha election together. They won 39 of the 40 seats while the UPA-led by Congress won just one seat. The RJD drew a blank.
Tamil Nadu
With 39 Lok Sabha seats, Tamil Nadu is often called as the gateway of South India where national parties face difficulty in establishing a connect with local voters.
During the last Lok Sabha election, DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance - which includes Congress - won 38 out of 39 seats in the state, dealing a big blow to the AIADMK-BJP faction. In 2024, the AIADMK is contesting the elections alone.
Madhya Pradesh
Also referred to as the 'Heart of India', Madhya Pradesh is one of the key Hindi heartland states comprising 29 Lok Sabha seats. The BJP wave swept through the state in the 2019 general election and the party is hoping to repeat the scenario once again.
In 2019, the saffron party bagged 28 out of the 29 seats in the state while Congress managed to win just one seat.
Karnataka
The state of Karnataka has as many as 28 Lok Sabha seats and is extremely important given the fact that it is also the IT hub of the country.
In the 2019 election, the BJP posted impressive figures in Karnataka, winning 25 out of 28 seats. The Congress, on the other hand, managed to win only a single seat, while its then ally Janata Dal (Secular) or JD(S) also secured only one seat. This time, the JD(S) has joined hands with BJP in Karnataka while the ruling Congress party is contesting alone.
Gujarat
Gujarat, known to be BJP's bastion, holds a total of 26 Lok Sabha seats. During the last Lok Sabha elections, the saffron party won all of the 26 seats in the state, in a repeat of its 2014 feat.
Gujarat, being the home state of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah, holds prestige value for the BJP.
Rajasthan
Rajasthan, another key Hindi heartland state, is known for its revolving door trend in state elections. However, in Lok Sabha polls, the BJP has completely pushed Congress to the sidelines.
In 2019, the BJP won 24 out of the 25 seats in the state. In 2014, it won all the 25 seats in the state.
Delhi
While Delhi has just seven Lok Sabha seats, the elections here matter a lot since it's the political centre of the country. The pulse of the nation can be gauged by the results in Delhi. In both 2004 and 2009, Congress dominated the Lok Sabha polls in the national capital and went on to form the government. Similarly, in 2014 and 2019, Delhi voted overwhemingly in favour of BJP, which went on to the form the government.
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