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With J Jayalalitha passing away last year, the fate of Tamil Nadu as well as the party she headed now is in a shambles. AIADMK is split down the middle with rival factions of the party, each headed by an Amma loyalist, staked claim to the chief ministership with only But with the Supreme Court decision to put VK Sasikala or Chinnamma behind bars in disproportionate assets case, the field is now open to a bitter public fight.
All roads lead to the Radhakrishnan Nagar bypolls in Tamil Nadu. The by polls may remind us of the old saying: in a fight between two, the third one takes it all. As the leaves of AIADMK wither, the rising sun may shine bright and sunny.
As Sasikala and O Panneerselvam parted ways, it reminds us of another fallout in the party which happened 30 years ago. After the death of MG Ramachandran, popularly known as MGR, his wife claimed the chief ministerial post but MGR’s associate and also co-star Jayalalithaa came to play a greater role in the party.
In all this chaos DMK rose to power and M Karunanidhi returned to the post of Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu for the third time in 1989.
As history repeats itself, DMK may get lucky again this time with the two Amma loyalists at loggerheads with each other. On March 23, the news of the split in AIADMK became official and both parties have made their choices for their party’s symbol and also the candidate they will field for the RK Nagar bypolls.
Are DMK’s chances of winning high?
DMK is leaving no stone unturned to cash in on this opportunity. The party is looking for a grand alliance and the party’s working president has reached out to People’s Welfare Front (PWF) to bring on board the party and its constituents including VCK, CPI and CPM.
The healthy relationship between Stalin and Thol Thirumavalavan of Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK) will also benefit the party in the by-polls.
DMK’s efforts may be one of the factors for the party to turn out victorious but the other key factor is the tussle between OPS and the surrogate sister of Amma.
It will be a tough battle field for the voters whose loyalties are now divided. Hence, the vote share may tilt towards DMK.
AIADMK Factions
It is a fight between ‘Hat’ and ‘electric pole’. These are the two symbols of the two factions of AIADMK. Both Sasikala and OPS were in a battle to take the symbol of two leaves for their parties. However, the Election Commission (EC) froze the symbol of the parent party and directed the two parties to come up with new symbols.
OPS' choice of an electric pole with two forked arms bears resemblance to Amma’s party symbol.
Importance of RK Nagar bypolls
The home ground of Jayalalithaa, RK Nagar, was left vacant after her demise on December 5 2016. To give the constituency a leader, it is going for polls on April 12. Stakes are high for political parties as RK Nagar will be a major contributor in setting the political tone in Tamil Nadu after the results are out on April 15. OPS joined hands with a few veterans of the party and waged a war against the now CM of the state, who is Chinnamma's pick for the corner room.
However, the fight has only just begun. With bypolls around the corner in Chennai, it will be interesting to see whether AIADMK manages to keep its flock together and come up trumps or whether DMK wangles a victory.
Candidates in the Race
AIADMK (Amma)
When Supreme Court sent Sasikala behind bars for four years in the Disproportionate Assets (DA) case, TTV Dinakaran became the obvious choice as party’s Deputy General Secretary and also the face for the bypolls. Under a new name, AIADMK (AMMA), the Sasikala headlined party is still in power, but for how long?
AIADMK (Puratchi Thalaivi Amma)
O Panneerselvam's online campaign - www.change.org -- was instrumental in sending Sasikala to prison. Now remaned AIADM K (Puratchi Thalaivi Amma), Panneerselvam's party will hope to win this bypolls.
MGR Amma Deepa Peravai
Sasikala’s elevation has bothered many, not least Jaya's niece who is pitted against her nephew TTV Dinakaran.
BJP
After a stellar win in four states out of five in the assembly elections, BJP is fielding a candidate at RK Nagar.
DMDK
The Vijayakanth-led party, which has fielded a candidate at the constituency, is also looking to get mileage out of this mess.
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