Psephologist Rajeeva Karandikar feels going by the prevailing mood BJP is best placed to form government at the Centre after the general elections.
“The mood of the nation as seen by us in the January survey was Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) doing very strong. About 200 for BJP and about 100 for Congress and BJP and its two allies going up to 220-225. So that picture shows they are 50 short of majority. In the best position to form a government was BJP at that point,” he said.
Karandikar had conducted an election survey in January which threw up a result of ‘a hung Parliament’. He, however, was quick to reply that survey results can change with public mood.
Speaking to CNBC-TV18’s Sonia Shenoy and Reema Tendulkar, Karandikar said that lot of things have changed since January.
“One is Telangana, which is kind of still happening. The alliance in Tamil Nadu has become clearer now. In Bihar, the Congress- Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) alliance happened after our survey. The entire situation in Delhi – from AAP being a high in mid-January to the events in the end of January, and now the resignation and nation-wide plunge. So, these events do have an impact and we will be able to measure it when we see one more survey result,” he said.
He, however, sees Congress to benefit from creation of Telangana and Jaganmohan Reddy to sweep Seemandhra region in the Lok Sabha polls.
Below is the interview of Rajeeva Karandikar, Psephologist with Sonia Shenoy & Reema Tendulkar on CNBC-TV18.
Sonia: You conducted the pre election survey for our sister channel CNN IBN three weeks ago. That survey threw up a hung Parliament right? Can you revise the numbers?
A: As of now all the conclusions are based on that data. We are planning one more round of survey but that will come only at the end of this month so till then I only have this data.
Sonia: You did this poll in middle of January. How long are the results valid, especially now with the emergence of Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the split of Andhra Pradesh?
A: The mood of the nation as seen by us in the January survey was Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) doing very strong. About 200 for BJP and about 100 for Congress and BJP and its two allies going up to 220-225. So that picture shows they are 50 short of majority. In the best position to form a government was BJP at that point.
Reema: Your survey said 11-19 seats for YSR Congress, 9-15 seats for Telugu Desam Party and 5-9 seats for Congress. Given the split between Andhra Pradesh and the birth of Telangana and the walkout by Kiran Reddy, how will it change your survey results and will it change to the disadvantage of the Congress or perhaps an advantage?
A: Survey results can change because public mood can change. So, from mid-January till now, various events have happened. One is Telangana which is kind of still happening. The alliance in Tamil Nadu became clearer now. In Bihar, the Congress- Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) alliance happened after our survey. The entire situation in Delhi vis-à-vis the AAP from a high in mid January to the events in the end of January and now the resignation and nation wide plunge. So these events do have an impact and we will be able to measure it when we see one more survey result.
Sonia: Will it change to the disadvantage of Congress or will it continue to be advantage?
A: This is a judgement and not a survey result. But the judgement is it is to the advantage of Congress in the Telangana area. And as the way events have played out Jagan Reddy may even become stronger on the Seemandhra side so Telugu Desam Party (TDP) gets squeezed probably.
Sonia: Let me come to the other development of All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), how does that square up in terms of performance in Tamil Nadu you think?
A: The interesting thing was that at that point of time one of the talks was that maybe Jayalalitha and Mr Modi have kind of a unstated partnership or an agreement etc, and that might have helped Jayalalitha pick up some marginal votes, but now aligning with Left that possibility is gone.
Now BJP is working overtime to try to put up a coalition there, Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK) and Paattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) has apparently already signed in and talks with Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) are going on. So, ultimately if BJP is able to put up a coalition with all these four, they will be – at least vote share wise they will be a big contender, not for number one slot but certainly for number two slot.
Reema: With that in mind how will your east and south coalition look because as at that time out of the 232 seats you had given BJP 22-40 and Congress 36-72 in those 7 states of West Bengal, Bihar, Odisha, Tamil Nadu and Kerala. Now how will it square? Will BJP and allies do better than 40?
A: If for example, this alliance in Tamil Nadu also happens, the BJP share will go up and Congress share is going up in Andhra. So, both will go up by 5 each or something like that.
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