The Centre notified the Citizenship Amendment Act Rules on a day marked by eventful developments. India tested ‘Divyastra (an Agni-5 missile)’. The Supreme Court turned down the plea to get an extension to provide the list of buyers of the electoral bonds. The national broadcaster, Doordarshan, announced a daily broadcast of the ‘aarti’ of the Ram Lalla Temple in Ayodhya. The action-packed day was signed off with the announcement of the notification of the CAA Rules.
Bengal’s Matua Vote
From Siliguri to Sunderbans, the Matua community is spread over the border areas of West Bengal with Bangladesh. They are said to have migrated after the partition of the country because of persecution. Estimates of the population of the Matua community vary from one crore to three crores. They have significant influence in about 10-12 Lok Sabha seats.
BJP will aim for immediate electoral gains in West Bengal where the party had hit the bull’s eye in the 2019 elections by winning 18 Lok Sabha seats. BJP had delivered a stunning performance by polling over 40 percent votes, just three percentage points less than the ruling Trinamool Congress.
Besides the “Chupe Chaap, Kamal Chaap” (silently vote for the lotus symbol) undercurrent, the Matua community had turned vocal in support of the BJP. The joyous celebrations in parts of West Bengal after the notification of the CAA Rules should have come as big shots in arms of the BJP ahead of the polls.
Assam Dehyphenated
The delay in the implementation of the CAA since its enactment by Parliament in December, 2019 was attributed to apprehensions within BJP of possible backlash in Assam. BJP faces a tough task dispelling the worry among Assamese people that the Bengalis will overwhelm their identity. The CAA Rules, however, exempt the tribal areas of Assam, Mizoram, Meghalaya, and Tripura where ‘Inner Line’ system is prevalent. Yet, parts of the region are reporting protests.
While BJP won the 2021 Assembly elections in Assam, the Congress-alliance vote share had seen a jump of 12.72 percentage points which had raised its tally to 50 against 75 for the NDA. Afterwards, the BJP government got a makeover with Himanta Biswa Sarma taking charge as the chief minister. Sarma has since then been one of BJP’s top saffron poster boys as he led the state government in a crackdown against Muslims marrying minor girls, and unveiling plans to outlaw polygamy.
Sarma, thus, has been seen to have sharply steered the political narrative away from the one centred around the Assamese identity to a sharp spotlight on minorities.
CAA Answers BJP’s ‘What Next’ Quandary
The Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led government at the Centre has delivered on nearly all the core issues of the BJP such as the Ram Temple, abrogation of Article 370, and Uniform Civil Code (partially with criminalising the practice of triple talaq and Uttarakhand leading the party-led states on the path of UCC).
The BJP now faces the question, what next! The manifesto of the party inherently lists emotive issues to connect with the core vote base. The CAA possibly opens the window to the prospects of the forgotten past slogan of the party to throw out illegal settlers in the country.
BJP Builds On ‘Modi Delivers’ Plank
The implementation of the CAA also removes the BJP’s discomfort that while the law was enacted by Parliament in 2019, it had been lying unattended to for the past four and a half years. “Modi delivers’ is the BJP’s principal poll mascot.
The notification of the CAA rules can be shown by the BJP as strengthening the image of Modi being a decisive leader. This whets the appetite of the core support base of the BJP to aspire for Modi to deliver on other emotive issues in future.
Charging Up Party Workers
BJP can possibly be wary of the complacency factor among the support base. This had been seen as the key culprit in late Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee losing the 2004 elections. Amid a wider acceptance that Modi winning a third term is a fait accompli, there also lies a fear that the 2004 complacency may turn the feet of the party’s soldiers lethargic.
The spate of protests and sharpness of attacks on Modi and the BJP by rivals over the implementation of the CAA will be harvested by the saffron party and utilised in charging up the party workers into a sprint so as to cross the final hurdle, which is the upcoming Lok Sabha elections.
Manish Anand is a senior journalist based in New Delhi. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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